Whobegotyou was photographed by the Justracing camera after his good second in the Doomben 10,000. He'd have to be the worst $2.60 to $3 bet in "All-In" betting in the history of thoroughbred racing - as at this morning.

I admit to being “astounded” at how price assessors, to a man, have all concluded Whobegotyou is almost a good thing in next Saturday’s Group 1 million-dollar Stradbroke at Eagle Farm. As at when this article is going up on public display at 8am today, the barrier draw hasn’t even been done. In fact we don’t even know the composition of the final field of 18 until later today, yet 48 hours ago, on Monday, Whobegotyou had suddenly firmed from $3 into $2.60 at several fixed odds outlets. As at right now it is still “All In” betting, with no refunds. Who would have been stupid enough to snap up the $3 from the weekend and back Whoebegotyou into $2.60? Or is it just a big con by bookies to get the suckers in using the old “come in spinner” mentality, after the short priced favourite suddenly firms in betting, with the intended message being “if you don’t get on now you will miss the top odds”?

How the hell could Whobegotyou be a legitimate $2.60 chance when we didn’t even know the composition of the final field, or what barrier he’d drawn - and all the rest of it?

As at right now, it is my considered opinion that he’d have to be the worst $2.60 to $3 bet ($2.60 Betstar and Betchoice - $2.80 IAS, Sportsbet, Centrebet and $3 TattsBet) – that you’d ever see, in the history of thoroughbred racing - and let me tell you why that would be.

Firstly, surely to God, he couldn’t start any shorter than $3 next Saturday, as he’d have to come from well back in the field, even if he drew barrier one when the barrier draw is conducted early this afternoon.

Secondly he is racing under handicap conditions next Saturday. Maybe if the Stradbroke was run at weight-for-age, Whobegotyou would have a decided advantage, as he’d be favourably weighted in comparison to his rivals, but he’s not in a weight-for-age race on Saturday. In fact he meets most of his rivals that he met in the Doomben 10,000 much worse off at the weights, in some cases by up to 5.5 kilos, and geez in this caper that’s a lot of weight. My story that I penned on that aspect of the weight changes from the Doomben 10,000 to the Stradbroke can be read again HERE.

Thirdly Whobegotyou is second up next Saturday. Do you believe in “the second up syndrome”? Well I sure as hell do – and I’ll tell you why I think it exists in thoroughbred racing - and that is because horses that have a gutbuster first-up from a spell - that’s for the one’s that try hard within themselves - like Whobegotyou did first up, put every ounce of energy into that run, meaning that if they back up too quickly for their second up run, they can produce an inferior effort to their first up run. I have found historically that “the second up syndrome” is exacerbated if the equine athlete is produced first-up on a “slow” or “heavy” track – and we all know Whobegotyou’s first up run was on a “slow” track. That alone had no option but to pull extra stuffing out of him, as opposed to if he had had the luxury of resuming on say a “good 3” track. An analogy would be if I asked you, if you were an elite human athlete, “Do you want to run in your 100-metre race on a firm turf football field, or a sandy beach”? It’s not rocket science to work out which one would knock you around more, if you hadn’t had any competitive racing for over seven months, which is the timeframe that Whobegotytou had had off the scene for, before he took his place in the Doomben 10,000 field on 29/5/10.

Fourthly Whobegotyou has a poor record second up – and he’s second-up Saturday - for as at today his “second-up” record says he’s had three starts for a win and two seconds. You may say “That’s a wonderful CV second up”, but the facts and the realities are that it shows historically he’s got beaten 66.6% of the time when he has raced second up.

Fifthly, so it isn’t ancient history - just last preparation Whobegotyou got rolled narrowly (ran second) first up on a rain affected “dead 4” track over 1400 metres at Caulfield at WFA. Second up, 14 days later (the same number of days gap between runs he has from the Doomben 10,000 to the Stradbroke) over the same distance he’d resumed at (1400 metres – and next Saturday he only goes from 1350m to 1400m) he again got rolled – easily by Mic Mac and it’s worth noting that Mic Mac has never been able to win another race in eight subsequent starts for two different trainers.

The sixth point to note is, if we go to his previous preparation, he resumed on a rain affected track in a Listed handicap race at Flemington over 1400 metres and he got rolled by Rockpecker in a photo. Second up, 14 days later, he got rolled again narrowly at Rosehill by Heart of Dreams. He then got beaten another five times before he finally won another race on 12/9/09 at Moonee Valley.

The seventh point is amazingly in the two “handicap” races Whobegotyou has started in (remember the Stradbroke is a handicap race), since New Year’s Day 2009, Whobegotyou has not won either, as he got rolled by Rockpecker on 7/3/09, then on 18/4/09, he ran third of 19 in a Group 1 Doncaster Handicap to Vision And Power. You might say “But he should have won the Doncaster” and/or “But Rodd slaughtered him in the Doncaster” – and both those statements would be accurate to my way of thinking, but I also nearly won the Golden Casket once, I bought my ticket just five numbers too early, or I wouldn’t be sitting here typing this – I’d probably be in the Greek Isles happily getting dudded by some glamour, the point being that if’s, but’s and maybe’s are not relevant in the real world.

The eighth point to note is that Whobegotyou has never won a race racing in the clockwise direction, like they run at Eagle Farm, as all his seven career wins to date have been when racing in the anti-clockwise direction of Melbourne.

$2.60 to $3 the good thing hey? That’s before we even know the barrier draw. As John McEnroe would say, after smashing his racquet on the ground in disgust - “You cannot be serious.” It’s no wonder that bookies drive around in Mercs – they deserve to, if they can find enough dills to back Whobegotyou at between $2.60 to $3 in “All-In” betting, days out from a Group 1 race, given that the horse could contract a virus tomorrow, get bitten by a brown snake today, or go through a fence and impale himself at trackwork tomorrow morning. In fact the fixed odds operators are so good at extracting money from hapless punters that they still have Border Rebel as short as $10 in Stradbroke markets, even though the horse’s trainer Sue Grills has told both written media (Armidale Express) and radio media (RadioTAB) that the horse won’t be going to the Stradbroke - well over 24 hours ago.

Should Whobegotyou go to the post at a price of $3 (2/1) inclusive, or under, on Saturday - surely at that price, he would have to be the shortest priced favourite in the history of the race – or at least since World War 2 concluded?

Tomorrow I continue with another story on punting entitled “You’ll never beat the house in the long term.”