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Headlines Today is 10/09/2010
LAST SATURDAY'S RACING REVIEW [ More Items ]  
Any dill who backed More Joyous (pictured here on the inside, in a battle with Hurtle Myrtle) into 10/1 on ($1.10) on the totes around Australia last Saturday will at least be "regular" this week. Who needs fibre - just back a few $1.10 chances"?
10/03/10

With no race meeting at Eagle Farm last Saturday a phantom meeting was held at the venue, but phantom meetings don’t generate enough betting turnover to warrant a southern events report, so we’ll have to give Lindsay Gallagher’s column a miss this week, but hopefully he’ll be back on deck next Monday, although that is no certainty either, as showers are predicted for Brisbane all this coming week – up to and including next Saturday.

Last Saturday’s racing around Australia was a major stuff-up if you ask me. Why is that? Well all the details on why that was will go up here tomorrow. I’m amazed at how last Saturday unfolded – that’s all I’ll say today.

The headline races around Australia last Saturday were the trifecta of the Newmarket Handicap, the Australian Guineas and the Australian Cup. Unfortunately we only got to see one of them run after that well documented hail storm hit Melbourne – and that was the Newmarket which turned into little more than a million dollar farce, as the field went out their first 600 metres in a pathetic 35.13, which is 1.10.26 pace for 1200 metres, so the field cumulatively were flat out even keeping that pace up, as they recorded overall time of 1.10.11. In fact only five winners of the race in the last 35 years have run slower overall time. Four of the horses that were officially in the first five at the 800 ran the first four placings on the finish line, so how the hell can that possibly happen in a Group 1 sprint race over 1200 metres - particularly a race up the demanding Flemington straight?

It is highly doubtful the track was in fact a “dead 4” for the Newmarket, as last year on the same day, but on a “good 3” track, the winner Scenic Blast recorded 1.08.75 defeating Swiss Ace by a short neck, with Aichi one length away third. The last 600 race split last year was 34.04. That all means that this year’s Newmarket field went out 1.09 seconds (6.54 lengths) slower than Scenic Blast’s field went out last year, but last year’s field (Scenic Blast’s) also got home 0.94 of a second quicker (5.64 lengths) than this year’s. Therefore there are only two conclusions that I can realistically draw and they are 1) the 2010 Newmarket Handicap was disgraceful, class wise, and they must all be cumulatively legless, or 2) the track was not a “dead 4” when the Newmarket Handicap was run. As I refuse to believe that point 1) is correct, I therefore say publicly the track simply had to be worse than a “dead 4” when the Newmarket Handicap was run.

Now we’ll have to wait until next Saturday to watch Denman, Set For Fame and Linton fight out the Australian Guineas – and to also watch a bunch of ordinary stayers, with the possible exception of Our Aqualeem, go for a gallop around. Our Aqualeem is entitled to be excluded from that “bunch of ordinary stayers” statement, as he’s at least unbeaten in this country.

In Sydney last Saturday More Joyous ensured that all those dills who back horses at odds on, who put their hard earned on the “champion” filly, are “regular” all this week, when she nearly got rolled at 10/1 on on most of the totes around the country. Bookies on course were really brave, chancing their arm by easing her from $1.20 to $1.22 late. How gutsy is that? That means for every million dollars they hold on her it will cost them an extra $20,000 if she wins. Fair dinkum, the bookies of these days are a shy and tame breed – they even forget they only got rich from laying short priced losers to dills, with more money than sense.

More Joyous’ owner John Singleton had said during the week on a RadioTAB interview with Steve Hewlett that “you could put your house on her” last Saturday. Sure any punters who took his advice backed a winner, but the home owner will now need to get a second toilet put in their house, or get an outhouse put in, as next time anyone takes that advice – only to see the horse they’ve had their “house on”, headed at the 100, they’ll need more than one toilet on the property as everyone in the family will have the sudden urge to go – at the same time.

Then “they” have all concluded that Solar Charged was entitled to be “the new Golden Slipper favourite” – and that’s before she even reached the line. Maybe she is entitled to be favourite, but she’s also bred to be a duck, whilst the second filly in that race Elimbari and the third filly across the line, Georgette Silk, are not bred to be ducks. Whilst Elimbari is out of a St Covet mare which helps, her sire Fastnet Rock is out of a Royal Academy mare (Piccadilly Circus) who is in turn out of a Marauding mare, so I don’t expect Fastnet Rock to be throwing vast numbers of “slow” or “heavy” track Saturday metropolitan winners. The other filly Georgette Silk is by Flying Spur out of a Barathea mare (Apparel), out of an In Reality mare named Dream Apparel, so you’d rather lay her on a slow or heavy track than back her. Well at least that would be my advice after researching the progeny of over 1000 individual stallions’ progeny for “Wet Track Sires” which appeared in my 2006 published book. In fact Saturday - based on my knowledge of wet trackers - I rated Solar Charged as “a racing certainty, barring bad luck”, but unfortunately she never got to black figures, so the money stayed in the wallet. Regular readers will recall I tipped the quinella in the Golden Slipper of Phelan Ready and Headway last year - based on “Wet Track Sires” - and both were big odds the night before.

One thing is for sure and that is that Solar Charged as at today is unbeaten – and she can handle wet or dry tracks, so she has a few pluses, but there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge yet. It is even possible that the Golden Slipper winner hasn’t even started in a race yet, such is the lack of depth in this year’s field.

Tomorrow I look at the Golden Slipper - and how it more than half pays for its total prizemoney, via nominations that are called for so early that the entrants are still yearlings when they are nominated - and later acceptance fees.

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