Trainer Peter Snowden has lost Denman from his team, as the horse will go overseas to race in England for Darley. Snowden did a top job with the colt, but as often happens, the media hyped the horse up to be something he clearly wasn't, to anyone with a knowledge of sectional times.

It’s history now that Denman ran unplaced in the Australian Guineas last Saturday week starting as the well backed $1.60 favourite - after the smarties trimmed him up from $1.70 late in betting.

The 3YO son of Lonhro had won nine of 11 starts coming into the race – and the general consensus of opinion around the traps was that Denman was a “superstar”, so he was declared by nearly all and sundry as pretty much an over the line job in the Australian Guineas. In fact at one point of time, a few weeks out from the race Denman was considered such a racing certainty that $1.40 was the top odds available in fixed odds markets.

Normally I would restrict my confidential thoughts to clients, but given what I saw as a pathetic amount of positive garbage being spoken and written about this colt Denman, I felt obliged to write a public article to inform any interested person that the horse was “not a superstar”. Naturally my Melbourne Sectional Times clients had all my reason for potting the horse – and as the race is now ancient history, I’ll put up publically what my clients were advised after Denman had continually been called a “superstar” by everybody from the race caller to some of the “experts” doing television racing review shows – as well as patronising newspaper journalists.

In fact the Sunday newspaper put out the day after Denman raced at Caulfield on 20/2/10 advised that Denman ran a faster last individual 600 than Set For Fame - but to me that was garbage.

Four races were run on that day at Caulfield (20/2/10) and the following is what my Melbourne Sectional Times clients were advised – all set out in layman’s terms.

WINNER	RACE FIRST 800 (Extrapolated to 1400m)	RACE LAST 600	OVERALL TIME (Time off track record)
TOOTSIE	48.65 (1.25.13)	35.12	1.23.77 (-2.57)
DENMAN	49.29 (1.26.25)	34.09	1.23.38 (-2.18)
RIGHTFULLY YOURS	48.35 (1.24.61)	34.65	1.23.00 (-1.80)
SET FOR FAME	47.59 (1.23.28)	34.97	1.22.56 (-1.36)

So from this table of comparison of the four races, the first thing we can see is that Denman got a pathetically easy lead in his race, as that field of his went out clearly the slowest of the four races run over 1400 on the day. Therefore it is fair to assume that Denman had no option but to win, if he had a leg hanging off each end of his body.

The next thing we can deduce is that Set For Fame’s race is clearly the best race of the four, as if we line her race up against the Open company horses (Rightfully Yours), we see that Set For Fame’s race goes out 0.76 of a second (4.56 lengths) quicker than Rightfully Yours’ race, but Rightfully Yours and crew can only get home 0.32 of a second (1.92 lengths) quicker than Set For Fame, so either a) Set For Fame is outstanding, or b) the Open company horses are grossly disappointing on the day and you can pot the entire Open company field, so because Set For Fame’s race was a bunched finish, I’d go for b).

If we then line up Tootsie’s field with the Open company horses that I have just concluded were “grossly disappointing” on the day, it therefore follows, by the Law of Logic, that Tootsie’s entire field is disappointing also, as Tootsie’s field goes out 0.30 of a second (1.80 lengths) slower than Rightfully Yours, yet Rightfully Yours and crew still manage to get home 0.47 of a second (2.82 lengths) quicker, so those mares from Race 9 aren’t headed to Open company, or in fact to any dizzy heights at all in their lifetime.

So to précis all that:

1) Denman had no option but to win.

2) Pot the entire field from Rightfully Yours race.

3) Pot the entire field from Tootsie’s race.

4) We are still to determine where Set For Fame sits in the general score of things.

Discussed in the early table. The Sunday newspapers taking their information from TVN sectional times said Denman ran home his last 600 quicker than Set For Fame, but in my opinion that’s garbage, in fact I think Denman’s sprint home is disappointing, the problem for all the others in the Guineas is he can dictate at a slow pace up front. In the next week I’ll go right back into Denman’s career and may write a story publicly about him. 

The rest in this field were in a different race this day, but that’s primarily due to the fact that a) they cumulatively lack ability and b) Denman had bludged in front until the home turn.

I wrote last time he won that Denman is no over the line proposition in the Australian Guineas and I still think that as at today – and he’s $1.40.

The prognostications that clients were advised in this report proved spot on as Denman got rolled in the Australian Guineas at long odds on – and Rightfully Yours ran eighth of nine at his next start when heavily backed and Road To Rock which ran a close second to him has got lost twice since. Tootsie went from winning to running 17^th of 18 at her next start.

Becoming educated on understanding sectional times is as easy as joining on the click on, on the left hand side of this website - and for $220 per State, per 52 weeks subscription, you will become a far more informed punter.

Since his Australian Guineas flop, it has been announced that Denman will now go to England to race in the July Cup, in the Darley colours.

As per yesterday’s website photo, last Saturday Horsewinners clients who pay $2.20 a week to receive zero to two tips at good odds each Saturday, were tipped into Rostova in a Group 1 race in Adelaide. I had a few emails yesterday wondering how I picked a mare that obviously many punters don’t like, judging by those emails – and here is the information they received Friday night. It read in full:

The third each way bet is in the big race in Adelaide, the Group 1 fillies and mares Classic. I suggest Race 7 Horse 15 ROSTOVA will run a race in that, as it will do her good to travel – and that aspect alone can often switch a galloper on, particularly a female. She’s drawn terribly, so I see that as a plus also, as they’ll at least ride her quietly in a fast run race - and you may recall her wonderful effort upon resuming this campaign, when coming from last and flying home to run third to Here De Angels, in track record time at Caulfield on 6/2/10.