FLEMINGTON July 8
It’s “Finals Day” at Flemington, a meeting that has grown and developed since the Winter Championship was first run in 1980 (Captain Filou/Ernie Ewart/Paul Riley for the trivia quiz) but now has been bolstered by a full set of associated heats culminating in this competitive meeting. Of course it’s Flemington, the track will be good (a winter good), the rail goes true (back from 9m). Terrific betting meeting as form is good to marry (much winning form stack ups – as it should – doesn’t mean it works out but – let’s go).
BEST: Race 1 # 4 RUBY SEA $2.75 bet now
VALUE: Race 7 #1 AMOVATIO $5.50 bet now
Race 1: 4-9-2-3
Good start here with 4 RUBY SEA who I slightly doubted 1400m to 1600m 2ndup and was most impressive. Can’t find a negative here. Value in 9 SPANISH REEF who will bring the 2 HUSSY’S GLOW (no clear run) and 3 ALMA’S ROSSA (mucous on scope last time) form into play. 1 SOHO RUBY had excuses last time at MV when fancied.
Suggested: Started day positively with 4 RUBY SEA $2.75 bet now
Race 2: 1-6-10-2
Sense of timing with 1 KILLARNEY KID, three runs in now to 200m and so well graded against these – especially when most form exposed – no up and comers. And did win this race last year. 6 SHOW A STAR would be better off on pace here and Dunn gets that right. Never ignore 2 EXTRA ZERO at Flemington (anywhere) and despite being a rising 11YO, is a player here. 10 PACODALI may be the upside horse but is 31 rating points (6kg not enough) below the stablemate top pick. Did beat YOGI (unbeaten since) two runs back and may have been too wet at Hamilton.
Suggested: 1 KILLARNEY KID ready to peak $3.60 bet now
Race 3: 5-1-2-3
Mares! Best form 5 SCHISM so stay with winning form and pattern should suit here. Clear danger with weight advantage is 1 TSARITSA and blinkers go on 2 A LOTTA LOVE. I’m still forgiving 3 VITAL IMPORTANCE – race escaped it last time.
Suggested: Hold big ammo but fire off at 5 SCHISM $3.70 bet now
Race 4:1-2-9-3
It was about $1.4 1 ROYAL SYMPHONY when tipping and that is fair. Wins here and makes spring credentials. So how to make a dollar from the race? Ok Quinella again with 2 EVIL CRY and a saver on another with 9 ANCHOR BID – just no luck on that “big” Flemington straight last time. 3 MADAME MOUSTACHE was disappointing in Sydney at the 1600m last time but straight to Melbourne and gets blinkers hope. 6 WHOOMPH will win races, probably not this one but goes in multiples.
Suggested: Anchor 1 with 2/9 quinella and forecast.
Race 5: 1-2-3-6
All form entwined here as usual but as a straight race barriers play out, we don’t like low numbers, 2 INVINCIBLE AL had to work across from 1 to outside but beaten by 3 OVERSTEP last time – barrier shift makes punting view different. Reckon blinkers going on 1 KEN’S DREAM – well into preparation is significant – not Weir like but respected. 6 SACRED SHAM draws alongside, that’s a plus.
Suggested: Gear change, alley draw points to 1 KEN’S DREAM $5.50 bet now
Race 6: 4-5-7-8
If form runs true then 4 CHARLEVOIX beats 5 HURSLEY again. 7 SHAKOPEE runs well behind, 8 BULLISH STOCK goes well. Think that’s it. If you are a mid-week fan of 12 GRANDUKEOFTUSCANNY good luck – he’s tested the punting friendship but hope the blinkers help.
Suggested: 4 CHARLEVOIX should win $3.20 bet now
Race 7: 1-3-8-10
The last 3 winners of this race come off last start wins and while that doesn’t include 1 AMOVATIO he is so well graded here as a winner of this 2 years ago off a BM 94 win – has won a Listed (Weekend Hussler) and Group 3 (Hawkesbury Cup) since and absolutely untested to line MV. 3 TSHAHITSI brings solid consistent form to the 1600m challenge. That brings 8 SOVERIEGN NATION to favourite track third run in. Stablemates 7 RHYTHM TO SPARE and 10 LOYALTY MAN best away in wide race.
Suggested: Target 1 AMOVATIO $5.50 bet now
Race 8: 7-3-6-8
Hard to ignore 7 ABILITY (unbeaten gelded) and drawing out also a punting plus. Think value at the offered $3.2. 3 HUSSON EAGLE draws out and has trialled well since we saw him. Positive. 6 ROUGH JUSTICE always run well up straight. 8 CAMDUS is the blow out late.5 RUETIGGER won this last year and form suggests ready to form spike again.
Suggested: 7 ABILITY $3 bet now
Race 9: 3-1-5-14
1 URBAN RULER is so well suited here, needs touch of alley luck with the 60kg. 5 CANNOT BE SERIOS back to good Melbourne track and suited. 14 FIRST APPROACH the value. No much between on 4 WHAT A SHOCK and 9 ATLANTIC EXPRESS. 12 TRUMP THIS in wider quaddies.
Suggested: 5 CANNOT BE SERIOS each-way $6 bet now
QUADDIE
(4)/5-8
1-3-8-10
(7)/3-4-5-6-8
1-3-8-5-9-12-14