CAULFIELD Saturday, September 2
So it is the first group 1 race of the 2017/18 season –MemsieStakes is worth $1m for the first time and gets a field to match (sans Winx). Rail is out to Caulfield’s best movement – that’s 6m (same as Caulfield Cup day) and will is usual firm – good 4 at acceptance time. Again no surprise it looks a day for Weir and Lindsay Park but some of the spring stars will be on the show the first meeting of spring appropriately.
BEST BET: Race 3 #3 Mr Sneaky $6.5 bet now
BEST VALUE: Race 8 #1Ventura Storm $11 bet now
Race 1: 2-3-1-6
Lowest rated race of the day BM70 and each has some legitimate claims to win this. 1 JUSTICEGLORY was tough beating 2 PROSECUTION 3 MAHLANI and 6 JUDY IN DISGUISE at Sandown but just tinkering with that as the form line race here going Prosecution to turn it around here but respecting others.
Suggested: Something on 2 PROSECUTION but open race and plenty better betting options to come. $4 bet now
Race 2: 8-9-5-1
Out to 1400m the key for 8 OREGON’S DAY here, Race escaped it tempo wise at Caulfield at 1100m when well backed and better suited here. 9 TAHANEE was good at 1400m fresh up on the same day and that should be a good clean out for this. 5 EVERY FAITH has trialled ok since we last saw here winning, thought she’d be off to the breeding barn after that but she’s good enough for sure. 1 RISQUE is the big movers – on the proviso she finds her best form. Note blinkers on.
Suggested: following up for revenge with 8 OREGON’S DAY. $2.9 bet now
Race 3: 3-4-12-7
Best backed has been 4 THEANSWERMYFRIEND but going with 3 MR SNEAKY who has a win over it and the price discrepancy is attractive – not to mention the recent jump out. Banking on 15 HANDSOME THIEF being better back on firmer track and 7 DUSTY JACK (Tigers fans!!) was terrific resuming. Deep race, and keen to look especially at 14 HALLELUJAH BOY off latest Newcastle trial for Kris Lees.
Suggested: Like the odds offered 3 MR SNEAKY. $6.5 bet now
Race 4: 3-11-2-8
All the rage is the unbeaten 2 MERCHANT NAVY and hard to ignore form and jump out and I’m not. I am just going with 3 TREKKING off having the run and the form line from the Rosebud enhanced via Overshare last week who was 4th in that race and over a length behind Trekking. The other value is 11 BOOKER resuming and has impressed at most recent jump out. 8 POSEIDON’S POOL brings the strong current form to this group 3 level.
Suggested: Going 3 TREKKING. $3.6 bet now
Race 5: 2-7-1-10
Like the look of 2 FUHRYK coming back in as good a form as she left as Group 2 winner – hence the “penalties”. Means she gives Weir’s addition 7 MISS COVER GIRL 2kg and respecting its overall form and of course stable and carriers highest BM rating into this (100). 1 SAVANNA AMOUR gets blinkers and a drier track and proven this level. 10 LYUBA did enough resuming and is ever reliable.
Suggested: Back 2 FUHYRK with a saver on 7 MISS COVER GIRL. $2.7 bet now
Race 6: 2-4-3-8
Sure 4 SHEIDEL has trialled up well for this (beating Redkirk Warrior by 7 lenses in basically stable Tatura trial) but 2 VOODOO LAD is the absolute professional who last time first-up just missed out in a Group 1 Newmarket (to that horse with Sheidel a perhaps conservatively ridden 4th). Is unbeaten at 1100m. One of these two will win. 3 MALIBU STYLE the value in multiples, 8 CRYSTAL DREAMER resumes and has built excellent career record and beat Malibu Style last time they met (at 1000m).
Suggested: Going 2 VOODOO LAD and powerful quinella option with 4 SHEIDEL $3.9 bet now
Race 7: 1-5-2-4
Going the defending champ 1 BLACK HEART BART against the obvious 5 VEGA MAGIC. Last year he was coming off a Stradbroke campaign, this year he’s chased Hartnell in the Lawrence, his only defeat in five Caulfield 1400m starts. Think this tactically different to that race. Sure Vega Magic hard to beat and will be a spring star. 2 LE ROMAIN was fantastic resuming in Sydney and sure to figure. Any number of others lining up for placings but lifting 3 TOSEN STARDOM to top 4.
Suggested: Great race – come on 1 BLACK HEART BART. $6.5 bet now
Race 8: 1-7-13-3
Very keen that 1 VENTURA STORM will be a major player in the Cups this campaign and this is a perfect race to resume off a couple of impressive trials and that autumn cameo of its first Australian start. This is the best value all day because you are unlikely to get similar odds again if he runs to what I have seen and anywhere near his best form. 7 AMELIE’S STAR will appreciate the 1700m 2nd up of a good 1400m return. Stablemate 13 TIAMO GRACE is in for a good spring campaign and this trip suitable 2nd up also. 3 TALLY is quality and resumed well.
SUGGESTED: Start thinks 1 VENTURA STORM is a name you will get more accustomed to this spring. $11 bet now
Race 9: 7-2-4-13
Again working with the big two stables here. Favourite 2 GRANDE ROSSO is short enough but putting stablemate 7 SNITZSON on top off back of sound return in straight Aurie’s Star. This is more suitable at 1400m around a corner. Sure Grand Rosso beat it home there and is a track/distance winner but has to give it 3kg here. 4 CHOCOLATE HOLIC will need some rider initiative from the gate but ready for a dry 1400m. 13 SOUCHEZ also need luck but is respected. The 3 emergencies are in this if they are in this!
Suggested: Value thought again with 7 SNITZSON $8.5 bet now
QUADDIE
2-3-4
1-5
1-3-6-7-8-9-13
2-4-7-13 (wait for scratchings re emergencies)