Racing around Australia really hots up tomorrow with the return of Winx in the Group 2 Apollo Stakes in Sydney along with another 4 Group races and the weather tipped to be around the 40-degree mark. The first Group 1 of the year, The C F Orr Stakes being run at Caulfield has 9 individual Group 1 winners and sees Black Heart Bart and last start conqueror Malaguerra fighting our favouritism. Supporting the cracking Orr Stakes field are another 7 Group races on the card with lots of interest in the Blue Diamond Preludes which will ultimately sort out favouritism for the Blue Diamond run in 2 weeks.
Racing returns to Randwick but this time with an 8m rail and historically simple maths tells you it has to be an advantage to be on speed but on my observations, you want horses off the fence and in the running line to find the best ground. Sydney has had the big wet this week and despite Saturday reported to be an expected 40 degrees I’m suggesting the track will be at best dead if not slow.
An interesting race on Saturday is Race 4 the Inglis Classic Race which is limited to all horses sold through the Classic Sale in Sydney. Traditionally it’s a rubbish form race being restricted form but that generally makes finding the winner a touch easier.
On paper, we have a lot of slow gate speed horses with the exception of She’s On Que who is from the Gollan stable normally but now with Robl. Off the exposed form, She’s On Que will lead them easily.
- HORSE: DUNATUN
- NORMALLY SETTLES: MIDFIELD
- COMMENT: Best Price is $21. Visually trialled well recently but the eye test does lie sometimes and there were no figures in the time and it looks to be wide and working here so not for me.
- HORSE: FIRE STOKER
- NORMALLY SETTLES: On Pace
- COMMENT: Best Price is $17. Is a possible leader but is not really fast enough but with Kathy on they will try and hold a spot? Won an ordinary race in Canberra and didn’t look like 1200m next start was what it wanted. Not for me.
- HORSE: JUNCTION
- NORMALLY SETTLES: ON PACE
- Best Price is $21. Winkers First Time
We have some INTENT with the Winkers On but whilst it’s a last start winner that race would have seen a crippled crab run faster backwards and it would need to have a huge improvement to figure here.
- HORSE: ULTRAMARINE
- NORMALLY SETTLES: Midfield
- COMMENT: Best Price is $5.50. Comes out of the best of all of these form races and whilst held up a little bit to me it didn’t look like it was screaming out for more distance. In saying that it has a good trainer/jock combo and gets a soft run midfield here. Can win but price is short enough.
- HORSE: SAN MARCO
- NORMALLY SETTLES: Worse than Midfield
- COMMENT: Best Price is $12. Winkers on First time. Again, further intent shown here and judging by the jockey selections this would be the stables third pick. It struggled around Canterbury so will love the big track but it was very common on debut and I’m happy to look elsewhere.
- HORSE: BULL MARKET
- NORMALLY SETTLES: Forward of midfield
- COMMENT: Best Price is $21. Another who raced at Canterbury but to my eye didn’t do much – of the stable 3 I’d suggest this will go forward, Ultramarine will be midfield and San Marco will be worse than midfield and that way the stable will have all pace scenarios covered J. I couldn’t have him in 6 selections but he will be on speed which will help him.
- HORSE: FROLIC
- NORMALLY SETTLES: Backmarker
- COMMENT: Best Price is $6.50. Winkers Off. Come up a crazy price and will be back in the pack. His sprint home last time was flattering to the eye and I don’t think she should be this price. Not for me.
- HORSE: SWEET DEAL
- NORMALLY SETTLES: Forward of midfield
- COMMENT: Best Price is $4.60. Her run in the Widden was huge and she will be fine at the trip but the issue is the sticky barrier. In saying that she does have a few lengths on this field and could still sit wide and be in the finish. Genuine chance. John Thompson horses can mix their form but if she holds it she is the one to beat.
- HORSE: LETS GET NAUTI GAL
- NORMALLY SETTLES: MIDFIELD
- COMMENT: Best Price is $16. She looks a good price here and is one of the few horses who looks like she will appreciate the extra distance. Not the worst and worth including in exotics.
- HORSE: SWEET BOUQUET
- NORMALLY SETTLES: On pace
- COMMENT: Best Price is $21. I have no doubt this filly has really good ability and I think her price is wrong here. Her effort on debut was good but my only thought is perhaps she is still 6 months away. She will be on speed and is a genuine each way chance.
- HORSE: SMOOTH CELEBRATION
- NORMALLY SETTLES: Midfield
- COMMENT: Best Price is $67. Normally Melbourne form to Sydney is genuine PEN JOB- but in this one being not a proper Sydney race she deserves some respect as she comes from a hot Melbourne race and she actually jumped well that day from a wide gate so I think she can be handier. She is one that can flash late and give some great value for the exotics. I have marked her $18 not the $67 she currently is.
- HORSE: NICCI’S GOLD
- NORMALLY SETTLES: Gets Back
- COMMENT: Best Price is $51.She gets back and simply looks too weak. The wet track will help her get through it but she is not strong enough.
- HORSE: MONOPOLY
- NORMALLY SETTLES: Worse Than Midfield
- COMMENT: Best Price is $26. Barrier blanket, winkers on, good intent and she is obviously a nut case- I didn’t think much of her exposed form and not for me.
- HORSE: SHE’S ON CUE
- NORMALLY SETTLES: LEADS
- COMMENT: Best Price is $5. Clearly our leading jockey and most in form rider along with K McEvoy. She is the fastest gate speed horse in the race and doesn’t look to get much pressure. It’s a stupid decision to go first up at 1200m but given depth she can still get away with it.
Overall I think the race can only throw up Ultramarine, Sweet Deal, Lets Get Nauti Gal, Sweet Bouquet and She’s On Que. From these I’d recommend having 1 unit on Ultramarine, Nauti Gal and She’s On Que at the odds and 2 units on Sweet Deal for a 5 unit outlay. Ultramarine, She’s On Que will provide a break-even situation and the other 2 will give us a winning hand.
Last week I suggested the only way Way Too Good would miss a top 3 was if she went amiss and sadly for connections and ourselves she did and as a result we are now minus 9 units.
Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.
Good luck and happy punting!!