21/04/16
Well we unfortunately had to endure that stupid Origin Jockey Series which featured alleged “top” or “champion” jockeys riding some of Queensland’s slowest conveyances around late last year and I was kind of hoping the Einsteins that come up with these brainwaves would just quietly move to live in Kazakhstan or somewhere. No such luck, the Einsteins are still unfortunately domiciled in Queensland and have come up with a second brainwave aimed at “boosting Ubet turnover”. And this latest one in my opinion is about as exciting as going on a honeymoon with a size 18 woman with hairy legs and armpits. Yes, it will soon be time for the knee-trembling excitement that is the “Ubet Super Six Trainer Series”. To be honest I find the whole concept about as boring as that 4000-metre race at Caulfield last Saturday but in any event it is what it is and for this Ubet Super Six Trainers Series, points get allocated when a “Super Six” trainer’s horse runs a place in 41 black type races or some such rot.
The 41 races will be run at Doomben and/or in the “rice paddy” that will be Eagle Farm in May and June if they happen to encounter a heavy track at Eagle Farm. The final day of the thrilling concept will be Tattersall’s Tiara day at Eagle Farm on June 25 and it will have – wait for it, are you sitting down and have you taken an angina pill today to settle the old ticker – double points on offer for each of the five stakes races.
Are you excited yet? You aren’t. Well stick with me and hopefully you can become excited over the concept, as we already have six people excited, namely the six trainers who I fancy can 1) win a new Leyland P76 car and 2) get more write-ups in the Statewide fish and chip wrapper, come outhouse assistant.
In a Gold Coast Bulletin “exclusive” on 7/3/16 it was stated “Leading Queensland trainer Robert Heathcote yesterday welcomed the concept”.
So seeing the “leading Queensland trainer” was so excited about the concept, which is to start on May 14 (BTC Cup day), what I thought I’d do is do up Rob Heathcote’s statistics for the first quarter of the 2016 calendar year – for Saturday city races to see how he might go if he’s chosen to represent Queensland.
In the undermentioned statistical research, I only looked at “Saturday city races” as donkeys that win at say an Ipswich Wednesday meeting yesterday, or any other mid-week meeting for that matter, are hardly going to win black type Carnival races unless they have an advertised gear change of “heart and lung transplant on first time” and/or “permission to cut across the infield in the back of the ambulance the first time”.
I stand corrected, but I fancy Rob Heathcote is yet to train a Group 1 winner in his home State of Queensland. Unfortunately whilst arguably the best horse in the stable, Buffering, has been capable of winning one or more Group 1 races in each of Victoria, Western Australia and Dubai, even though he’s had 10 starts at Group 1 level in Queensland, even the Heathcote stable star is yet to win a race at the elite level in Queensland.
Rob Heathcote has won several Brisbane Trainers’ premierships in his career and here are his training statistics for every Saturday city meeting from 1/1/16 to 31/3/16 inclusive:
DATE/MEETING
HORSE
PLACING
PRICE
26/3/16 – Doomben
Jopa
2nd
$5.50
Brotherly Secret
3rd
$21
Punta Norte
3rd
$7
Written Above All
8th
$17
Alpen Rose
10th
$13
Dream of Slips
6th
$15
19/3/16 – Doomben
Shoneck Affair
4th
$7
Kaiser Franz
4th
$2.35
Spirit Minded
10th
$8
Silento
11th
$6.50
Lauterbrunnen
3rd
$4.80
Volkhere
10th
$26
12/3/16 – Gold Coast
Dream of Slips
6th
$11
Punta Norte
4th
$10
Brotherly Secret
8th
$14
5/3/16 – Doomben
Damn Fine
5th
$5.50
Jopa
3rd
$6.50
Kaiser Franz
2nd
$3.80
Silento
10th
$6.50
Oberland
7th
$6
Lauterbrunnen
2nd
$6
27/2/16 – Doomben
Shoneck Affair
5th
$16
Capo Di Tutti
9th
$7
Bewhatyouwannabe
1st
$10
Punta Norte
6th
$7
Alpen Rose
7th
$13
Brotherly Secret
3rd
$10
20/2/16 – Doomben
Kaiser Franz
3rd
$5
Jopa
3rd
$6
Lauterbrunnen
7th
$3.70
13/2/16 – Doomben
Bewhatyouwannabe
3rd
$16
Damn Fine
7th
$8.50
Big Decision
5th
$11
Dream Choice
9th
$7
Brotherly Secret
5th
$17
Punta Norte
8th
$5.50
Written Above All
11th
$51
6/2/16 – Doomben
Kaiser Franz
3rd
$6.50
Oceantes
4th
$10
Jopa
1st
$4
Neuschwanstein
13th
$12
30/1/16 – Doomben
Volkhere
7th
$3.80
Dream Choice
1st
$5.50
Jopa
3rd
$10
Written Above All
7th
$10
Fusina
10th
$16
Privlaka
1st
$4.60
23/1/16 – Doomben
Lauterbrunnen
2nd
$9
Punta Norte
3rd
$14
Kaiser Franz
6th
$6.50
Sea Red
9th
$3.30
Define
6th
$19
16/1/16 – Caloundra
Volkhere
2nd
$2.60
Dream Choice
3rd
$6.50
Jopa
4th
$6.50
Lordag
1st
$3.50
Alpen Rose
7th
$12
Gid Up Strop
16th
$6
Privlaka
1st
$8
Don’t Deny Us
11th
$17
9/1/16 – Gold Coast
Buffering
1st
$1.35
Hopfgarten
10th
$14
Saluter
9th
$31
2/1/16 – Caloundra
Volkhere
2nd
$3
Kuttamurra Al
3rd
$5
Neuschwanstein
11th
$8
Lordag
2nd
$3.20
Sea Red
3rd
$3.80
Bewhatyouwannabe
7th
$13
Big Decision
14th
$11
Written Above All
16th
$12
So there are the Saturday city starters from the Rob Heathcote stable over the first three months of 2016.
Statistically in what will no doubt be a surprise to many, based on my research, the Rob Heathcote stable had 71 starters between 1/1/16 and 31/3/16 and he only won seven races in that timeframe. In date order those six winners were Buffering (9/1/16 – Gold Coast – $1.35), Privlaka (Caloundra – 16/1/16 – $8), Lordag (Caloundra – 16/1/16 – $3.50), Dream Choice and Privlaka (Doomben – 30/1/16 – $5.50 and $4.60 respectively), Jopa (Doomben – 6/2/16 – $4), Bewhatyouwannabe (Doomben – 27/2/16 – $10).
So as you can see from the aforesaid, seven of 71 Saturday city starters won, meaning 9.86% of Heathcote stable runners saluted, which conversely means 90.14% lost. Take that one step further and if you had $1 a win on all the Heathcote stable runners in that timeframe, you’d obviously outlay $71 and the return would be, based on their official starting prices, which are noted above, $36.95, so on that basis a punter would lose $34.05 of their $71, or 47.96% of his or her stake.
A quick perusal of Rob Heathcote’s website probably gives a terrific insight into a couple of secrets of his stable being able to train seven Saturday city winners from 71 starters, as he advises that if “your current horse is too slow and you want to upgrade to a newer model, just contact me”. He further advises in the same paragraph that one of the key components in his success is that “it’s essential that experts with a proven track record be part of the yearling selection process and our record has stood up to the test”.
So I’ll let you as a punter work out if you want to knock some old lady on a walking frame out of the road to back Rob Heathcote to win any “Ubet Super Six Trainers” competition?
Next week I’ll look at the results in the same timeframe for Brisbane’s “premiership trainer” Tony Gollan as I continue to look at South-East Queensland trainers who may be included in this upcoming competition.