FLEMINGTON June 24
Track: Good 4 – no more wet tracks at Flemington in winter. Rail goes out to 9m (from 6m and 3m) and then tend to race away from it anyway. Wider in straight races seems a plus. Much of a mid-week form feel to many benchmark races, loaded with winning competitive form.
BEST: Race 9 #3 SAMOVARE $3.60 bet now
VALUE: Race 3 #2 VITAL IMPORTANCE $12 bet now
Race 1: 2-4-15-13
Intriguing start with loads of winning form, most of it off the synthetic track at Pakenham headlined by 2 ROYAL SYMPHONY who lived up to market expectation on debut . Has again been hammered from first markets and will be hard to beat. Very good at Swan Hill was 4 RIVER JEWEL when out to 1300m and lands good spot again. Best value 15 INDIRABEEL, looking for the 1400m on home track and expecting 13 ANCHOR BID to sharply improve at the 1400m off one run. But race full of depth.
Suggested: Having something at odds 15 INDIRABEEL $34 bet now Think favourite can win but in deep race, no value.
Race 2: 1-2-6-9
Top of the weights here is the class and going 1 ASHLOR to beat 2 KEN’S DREAM. ASHLOR kept up to the mark with a Corowa trial since strong Adelaide win and their form ties in, KEN’S DREAM has since run without luck at The Valley. Most other form through 4 INVINCIBLE AL race but barriers turn things around with 6 OVERSTEP drawn out rather than in as was there. Same deal with 9 MISTOFFELEES drawn 13 here, 2 then.
Suggested: 1 ASHLOR $5.50 bet now with a class edge to win.
Race 3: 2-9-12-1
Good value in 2 VITAL IMPORTANCE out to 1400m, the Valley race got away from it after strong first-up win. 9 NIMINYPIMINY is ready third run in and gets Williams now to suitable 1400m third run in. Another deep race, 12 DON’TBABYLON will land good spot from barrier and down in weights is advantageous. 1 TSARITSA has earned the 60kg and positive lead switched to Melbourne.
Suggested: Something each-way 2 VITAL IMPORTANCE $12 bet now
Race 4: 6-5-10-1
Again loaded with winning form, much of it mid-week and trying to asses where the value is in another wide going to go with 6 PASSOVER, first ride at Flemington for 3kg claimer Georgina Cartwright. Has trialled impressively Avoca since go forward performance Cranbourne which stewards queried. 5 SAYED was tough winning Lakeside and gets suitable run here again. 10 PORTION CONTROL was solid in tougher race last time, 1 DUKE OF ELLINGTON suited this grade.
Suggested: Value bet 6 PASSOVER
Race 5: 1-8-10-5
Thought 1 MEGABLAST was excellent last week at the Valley, gets Merten’s claim and if handles the back-up is the one to beat in another competitive race. The firmer track is a query – not a concern – but the Valley was as firm as it gets last week, Flemington an obviously different scenario. 8 BULLISH STOCK was excellent out of 1800m quickly second-up and again quickly to the 2520 here. Blinkers for winkers (a usual Lindsay Park ploy) gives 10 CHARLEVOIX obvious claims. 5 FALAGO produces his best at Flemington as he did here last time.
Suggested: 1 MEGABLAST $5 bet now convinced me of his ability on firmer ground Aussie debut at the Valley.
Race 6: 15-9-10-8
15 ABILITY looks to have come back in terrific form, excellent hitting the line win at the Valley, up in grade, down in weights but the one to beat. Hard to ignore the way 9 LAKE COMO makes straight racing look pretty straight forward. Going in at the odds is 10 MOONOVERMANHATTAN, first run for Weir (remember the big priced winners from him last week). 8 ROUGH JUSTICE is a reliable straight track performer.
Suggested: Go with 15 ABILITY $4.20 bet now, a little spec bet on 10 MOONOVERMANHATTAN $51 bet now
Race 7: 1-6-2-7
Well found in betting is 6 REWARDING EFFORT and can see why, third up, race of little tempo (can race forward), gear change (tongue tie), rider change (Williams). But no gimme! No fluke about Swan Hill Cup win of 1 VICTORY DOWNS. 2 LUCKY PADDY will lift sharply second-up for Weir at 1600m. 7 HOT RUBY was 2000m win (here) back to 1500m at the Valley and has trialled since.
Suggested: Better value now in 1 VICTORY DOWNS
Race 8: 9-1-6-2
Again leaping off the form read is 9 CANNYESCENT with the 7kg weight drop off a sizzling BM 84 win and obviously flying for new stable. But again no gimme – 1 ROYAL RAPTURE had a break from the Wangoom to a better run here at 1400m last time in race won without fluke by 2 TSHAHITSI and beats it home here at the weight turnaround. 6 LOYALTY MAN is in for a good campaign off excellent return in the race as well. But in wider quaddie including 3/12/15
Suggested: Go with the money and form 9 CANNYESCENT $3.60 bet now and save 1 ROYAL RAPTURE $9.50 bet now
Race 9: 3-2-10-17
Waiting for the last race for the best of the day with 3 SAMOVARE who gave winner 4kg on Melbourne debut and wants 1600m now. 2 WIDGEE TURF has impressed Avoca trial since last win (2nd Passover). 10 THE PASSAGE gets blinkers first time and the only other included in quaddie. Place hops 1/14/17.
Suggested: Best – 3 SAMOVARE $3.60 bet now
QUADDIE: (inc all Weir)
2-3-7-8-9-10-15
1-2-6-7
1-2-3-6-9-12-15
2-3-10
$142 for 25%