MONDAY 2 APRIL
TRACK: GOOD 4 (4.97) RAIL: +7M
BEST BETS:
Race 4 No.10 VELOCITA
Race 6 No.11 SEXY EYES
VALUE BET:
Race 5 No.7 MORNINGTON
Race 8 No.4 CHALK
Race 1
3 – 6 – 4 – 1
DREAM CHILD has a little tricky gate but if she can get luck in the first 100m and repeats her latest run at Warwick Farm when second to Madame Rouge she will be hard to beat. Trainer David Payne has added the blinkers to sharpen her up. The Art Of The Bar gets blinkers and has trialled nicely twice leading into her first up run here and from gate one she is sure to get a nice run. Plenty trialled nice before failing badly on debut but coming back to his home track will help him enormously so don’t disregard.
Race 2
5 – 6 – 2 – 1
I expected RED ROVER to win with ease on debut after trialling nicely but after travelling sweetly he gave nothing when he found the front and was most disappointing when well beaten. The Hawkes stable have added the blinkers and with today’s racing on his home track I’m prepared to give him one more chance. Schoolmates was very good debut when greenness cost him a win before flopping when stepped up to 1550m. He has had a 45 day freshen up and a nice barrier trial to keep him up to the mark. He will be finding the line hard and looms as a major player. Baltic Success and Blazeray will settle on-pace and are both major players.
Race 3
5 – 4 – 8 – 11
Not a race that captured me but still a winner to be found and I have settled on MONTRACHET from the Hawkes stable. He debuted back in December when a solid second at Gosford and returns here off the back of a nice trial. From a good gate he should find a spot just tucked in behind the leaders. Miss Shanti is also first up having raced twice and although safely held in a recent trial she wasn’t pressured in the hit out. Stock Up Is first up off a trial win at Hawkesbury and you’d imagine would only need to repeat her effort when second at Warwick Farm back in December to be a winning chance.
Race 4
10 – 4 – 9 – 7
The betting suggest it’s a two horse race between the Chris Waller pair of Savacool who is favourite and my top pick VELOCITA with Blake Shinn in the saddle. Velocita is first up for three months with a nice trial at Rosehill 13 days ago behind Lubiton. She raced over 1900m last preparation but I don’t think she was ready for that and I think back to seven furlongs is ideal. The speed looks fair and I think if able to get a nice cart up Velocita can out sprint her rivals. Savacool is also first up after a three month layoff but from an awkward gate will need a touch of luck. She has solid form with two wins and two second placings from her four career starts but I am banking on the stablemate having a better turn of speed.
Race 5
7 – 1 – 8 – 10
Looks a tough race but I think there is five winning chances and an argument for all of them so I have ended up tipping the one at the biggest odds MORNINGTON. This former European is first up at the 1800m off two fitness barrier trials. He has raced against better horses than he meets today and I think at around the $12 mark he represents good value. Eagle Bay came across the Tasman with big raps and after being well backed failed to fire in Saturday grade racing over 1350m. He has drawn poorly here today but if he has luck from the gate he will be hard to beat especially with the step up to 1800m. Roman Son was very good first when second at Warwick Farm and is sure to have improved in fitness coming here. Raqeeq ran second before winning last Wednesday at Warwick Farm giving the form some depth. Lovani has raced twice since joining Brad Widdup and been solid and now jumps from 1350m to 1800m and should be ready to fire.
Race 6
11 – 2 – 9 – 8
SEXY EYES is just kicking off her career and has plenty more wins in store judging by her improvement this preparation and she is till improving. Following two solid placings she got the job done in good fashion last start at Warwick Farm when lumping 59kg. She takes on a tougher bunch here but she drops to 53kg and with even luck is sure to be hard to toss. Dissolute has turned in two terrific runs this campaign and although he hasn’t raced for four weeks he looked in good order in a recent barrier trial. Mariquita will get back but will be charging while Seaway is an improving 3yo that must be respected.
Race 7
2 – 12 – 6 – 5
Looks an open race and I’ve ended up with BRAVISSIMO who I thought did a good job first up when narrowly beaten and from a good gate he should find a nice spot with majority of the speed drawn outside him. The step up in trip shouldn’t bother him and he is a winner second up. Grand Finalist is sure to have come in fitness following his first up run behind Bolero King who ran terrific on Saturday in far tougher grade. Revolver is first up for almost 14 months and has been gelded but I was taken with his recent barrier trial and from a soft barrier could easily play a role.
Race 8
4 – 7 – 12 – 9
He has an awkward gate but if CHALK can have a little luck early he should take a power of beating. The scratching of Johnny Roy Boy has taken a little of the speed out which should aid him early if he elects to go forward. He is first up off a nice trial and I think well placed here having raced in better grade. The fav Marble didn’t have a lot of luck first up at Gosford and is sure to appreciate the good surface today after racing on a heavy track first up. Sophiella will likely lead and make it hard for the others to run her down.
QUADDIE:
1st leg: 1, 5, 7, 8, 10
2nd leg: 2, 11
3rd leg: 2, 5, 6, 12
4th leg: 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12
Cost $60 = 25%