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Sheza Alibi’s Golden Eagle draw analysed

The chances of seeing ‘black odds’ for the highly-rated mare Sheza Alibi in this Saturday’s $10 million Group One Golden Eagle appear to have diminished following her barrier draw of six.

Now in its second year at Royal Randwick, the four-year-old restricted race accommodates 18 runners. Bookmakers responded by reopening betting, listing Sheza Alibi at $1.90, with Beiwacht and Autumn Boy sharing the second line of favouritism at $8.

Beiwacht, one of five Group One winners in the field, secured barrier 10. Autumn Boy drew barrier five, immediately adjacent to Sheza Alibi.

Sheza Alibi and Autumn Boy have a history of quinellaing races when they face each other, having done so on four prior occasions. While Autumn Boy triumphed over Sheza Alibi as two-year-olds at Eagle Farm, she has since claimed victories in the Randwick Guineas, Doncaster Mile, and Makybe Diva Stakes.

Owner Fred Noffke expressed satisfaction with the draw, noting he had limited options. He humorously stated his part was done and the rest was up to trainers Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman, along with jockey Luke Nolen.

“I was very happy,” Noffke said.

“I asked Peter (Moody) what he wanted and Peter didn’t mind so long as I was drawn out a bit, and I said ‘can we take six to twelve?’ and he said, ‘yep, that’ll be fine.”

Noffke indicated that Sheza Alibi, having experienced a surprising defeat in the Group 1 Might And Power Stakes (2000m), has recovered well and is primed for the Golden Eagle.

“There was a big discussion back a fair bit and Peter said we can do it,” Noffke remarked.

“I’ve not seen anywhere where Peter’s not been right, this has been the plan and I’m sure that he’ll execute it just fine.”

In an effort to challenge Sheza Alibi, leading trainer Chris Waller has implemented gear adjustments for Beiwacht, who will now wear a norton bit, and Autumn Boy, who will race without blinkers. Stable representative Darren Beadman reported that both horses have performed strongly in recent trackwork.

“All the way through his career, he’s raced in a ring bit,” Beadman commented.

“So something different, just psychologically, he’ll just get his mind off the normal bit that was in his mouth and the rider that rides most of his work said that he’s really taken to the bit.”

“And when Autumn Boy didn’t have the blinkers on, when he won the Rosehill Guineas, he was just nice and relaxed, so with Zac Purton on board, he’s a good strong rider, a big stallion like Autumn Boy needs someone to help him through it.”

The Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou-trained Skyhook faced a notable drift in the market after drawing barrier 16, and is currently priced at $13. Apocalyptic, the winner of the Silver Eagle, is at $17 and drew the widest gate of 18, being the only other runner available at odds shorter than $21.

Consider the leading online bookmakers for the best racing odds this Saturday.

Think. Is this a bet you really want to place?
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