Well there doesn’t seem much point drilling into form for Saturday’s meeting when even the Bureau says there is 100% chance of heavy rain on Friday (up to 70mm) and 100% chance of heavy rain Saturday (up to 80mm). That’s apparently a month’s rainfall in just one of those days and three months rain forecast over the weekend. And this is off the back of the 2nd hottest Novembers in history
So basically saying it’s almost Winx odds this meeting is in serious doubt of being run and even if gets going, gets done. That’s not to mention Friday night’s Moonee Valley meeting with much of the heavy rain forecast late into the day into the evening.
BEST BET: Rain – and lots of it. JUNGLE EDGE (Race 7#1) if they race
Friday night Moonee Valley: Following YOU’VE BEEN HAD (Race 7 #11)
BEST VALUE: Do your form for elsewhere or build an Ark.
But for the sake of some interest here we go.
Race 1: 5-8-2-1
If this was a good track, LOGAN RIVER might be a good thing. It won’t be and this is a non-bet race (as the meeting might end up being). Anyway it’s shown best ability of the unraced. The only horse to have raced was favourite on debut – that’s CORONEL and did everything wrong. Obviously has ability.
SUGGESTED: Nothing.
Race 2: 5-7-9-4
If we get going, happy to really get going with HOLY FREEZE who won its maiden on a heavy 8 at Hamilton on debut. BIG MOON trialled well on soft this week. Well respected. BELLEGANO looks ok on wet ground.
SUGGESTED: Keen on HOLY FREEZE.
Race 3: 1-2-6-3
Like MRS GARDENIA back to a BM 84 of a Group 3 placing but no exposure to seriously affected ground. (Might say FUDGED has 7kg on it from 3.75len defeat fresh-up Mornington but clearly one has progressed greatly. MILES OF KRISHNAN has the best soft track profile for mine.
SUGGESTED: Staying with Mrs Gardenia.
Race 4: 6-11-1-3
VINLAND and PROCEDURAL are the only to have seen heavy tracks, VINLAND good in strong Syd race with post-race issues and ran well enough in Guineas here a fortnight back. PROCEDURAL will be well over the odds. Too many queries elsewhere but have to respect STORM HARBOUR’s credentials.
SUGGESTED: Something VINLAND, save PROCEDURAL
Race 5: 16-18-11-4
Absolutely impossible race (even without the rain). Liked the return and maiden win of URBAN ROYAL and track was a soft 6 so that might be some pointer. Over the odds will be JIVALA whose wet track runs have been ok and liked return at Cranbourne. TELL THE TRUTH was slow out and just missed out at Sale.
SUGGESTED: Guess. But URBAN RULER will win other races (if not this due to ground).
Race 6: 8-2-1-5
SPRIGHTLY LASS has looked good, despite being green in early starts to her undefeated career. Saw a soft 5 on debut and couldn’t really tell if got away with it on ability only. Think CHIAVARI brings best soft track credentials. MISS WONDERLAND obviously has ability – no exposure to wet.
SUGGESTED: Can back SPRIGHTLY LASS and save on CHIAVARI.
Race 7: 1-2-4-3
Well here is one of the country’s best wet-trackers – JUNGLE EDGE, and showing how well he is going winning on good race here a fortnight ago on a soft 5. All 12 wins have been on affected ground, but 5 wins from 11 starts on heavy. GUN CASE is also more than adequate on soft and despite them giving loads of weight to rivals (even after claims) they are best placed in this ground.
SUGGESTED: Back JUNGLE EDGE, save on quinella with GUN CASE.
Race 8: 8-3-9-14
WAR LEGEND was good (every chance) in the MR GARCIA race at Flemington on Oaks day. Of course that horse ran favourite in Ballarat Cup and was ok. But this horse is adept in heavy ground and can beat LONG TIME AGO who won well here a fortnight ago, racing against its normal on-pace pattern. Is a winner on a soft 6. NIGHT’S WATCH gets the weight relief here from Flemington Country Cup and has won on a soft 6.
SUGGESTED: WAR LEGEND at odds.
Race 9: 6-9-16-11.
MILWAUKEE ran on a heavy when led and run over by EGG TART in a 3YO race. So not convinced either way on this sort of expected ground. DATA POINT is hardly a punter’s pal but only one of two wins was on a heavy. SADDLE THE SUN has talent yet unknown in ground.
SUGGESTED: MILWAUKEE top pick.
NO early quaddie thoughts yet.