At least we still have a metropolitan meeting for a traditional Monday public holiday. Rail stays same 8m position as last week’s meeting.
BEST BET: ESPERANCE Race 7 #8
BEST VALUE: CORAL COAST Race 6 #11
Race 1: 7-11-4-3
SILENCE THE STARS is going to run a short-priced favourite here with C Williams going on – partly because of lack of meaningful opposition and also because has the most commanding of recent form – but is a 5YO with just 5 starts. Been unlucky both starts this time in but was $21 and $7 but seriously can’t tip you anything to beat it. VALERIA MESSALINA hasn’t run since November when “mildly lame” and runs 1600m fresh here – is that a positive? Showed good ability 1200m debut with no luck hence ran favourite but was $2.8 to $3.8 Cranbourne. DIPOLMAC JAC is fit racing well enough to place again.
SUGGESTED: SILENCE THE STARS should break through but…..price?
Race 2: 8-3-11-12
MONTMORENCY did a great job to stay on feet and get as close as it did on debut Cranbourne 1400m debut when in betting. With better luck and 1600m shapes as key winning chance here. BOX ON COLLINS will appreciate the 1600m 2nd-up – was $4.5 into $2.70 in a BM70 resuming on unsuitable Parks track. Placed listed company before break and finally gets back to a maiden. SUNQUEST profiles on a similar path – contested better races before having tough run maiden company and winner then won Mornington Guineas. THE SLEDGEHAMMER has good ability. Will get out of maiden company, promote if betting move comes.
SUGGESTED: MONTMORENCY on top but race of different form lines and chances.
Race 3: 11-4-10-1
Blinkers have made the difference with SECOND MARRIAGE – unlucky resuming in them then walked in at Pakenham in track record time for the 1200m. Can’t see the extra 200m bothering. DANCING TYCOON won its maiden then stepped to a similar race here last time and measured up. ZEDDA looked good in maiden, maybe wants further now but 1400m big track a yes. MISS DAMITA (stablemate of Dancing Tycoon) got the right run and won maiden on debut. TIME FOR TEA is overs.
SUGGESTED: Love the way SECOND MARRIAGE is going.
Race 4: 2-3-10-5
HERECOMESMYBABY runs the favourite and rightly hard to beat but going ANGELIC SPIRIT on top at the odds – forgive open 3YO race resuming at Flemington (barrier issues) then impressively won maiden given the right run. Touch tricky at draw but will be a serious threat to favourite. ISLE OF CAPRI is back from a couple of 2000m runs (latest over-raced). Can improve here. TEA FOR CHOUX is racing well.
SUGGESTED: ANGELIC SPIRIT top pick.
Race 5: 11-3-8-13
Tough start to the quaddie. So going Weir’s way with HECTOPASCAL who races well Hillside, had chance last time here but that was a BM78, so gets another chance here. I’ve never been in TIGIDIG TIGIDIG corner but was impressed with narrow but determined win Ballart. TOORAK COWBOY continues to race well but with no recent wins. PATRICIA ANNE is a Kiwi making oz debut. Has won at 1400m but record reads well over longer but with D Moor up am including in everything.
SUGGESTED: Stay alive in quaddie, HECTOPASCAL leads numerous chances.
Race 6: 11-8-5-4
Very tough. Think CORAL COAST is the best horse – 3rd in a G3 Gloaming (to derby winner Ace High) tells you it has talent and at $14 in a wide race, think worth the gamble at 1300m fresh here. AFFINITY BELLE doesn’t have that sort of class but has come back off long break with a maiden into a BM58 double so not ignoring those efforts. SHARPNESS resumes in Melbourne, did trial ok Rosehill recently. LUQYAA was in wrong race resuming and has been tested in better races than this – like my top pick.
SUIGGESTED: Again tough but at $14 can chance CORAL COAST.
Race 7: 8-13-6-11
Can narrow this down to two – maybe even one. ESPERANCE clear top pick from WILLIAM THOMAS – big gap to remainder. Godolphin’s Esperance was impressive in first two wins then only 2.3 lens away in a G2 Danehill. If anything goes wrong William Thomas is the danger. Straight to Flemington off good debut and not disgraced but that was behind Godolphin’s Bandipur who I wouldn’t rate alongside Esperance.
SUGGESTED: ESPERANCE to win.
Race 8: 17-5-11-12
WOULDA THOUGHT SO was $5 into $4.2 resuming Pakenham at the 1200m was too short. Fitter and better suited here. Will find the line. LAKHONI will need the back straight to go its way from draw, won well enough with good run Bendigo and can keep improving. Right race for it. DINNER LAKE comes through same race as top pick, had tough run there, was ok. Not leaving Weir’s STRINGER BELLE out of quaddie.
SUGGESTED: Thinking WOULLD THOUGHT SO the go.
QUADDIE:
3-5-6-8-11-13
2-3-4-5-8-11
8-13
1-5-11-12-17
$180 for 50%