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Headlines Today is 23/07/2014
WHY AREN'T TABs FORCED TO DISCLOSE FIXED ODDS HOLDS - AND PUNTERS LOSE WHEN SEVEN OF NINE ALBION PARK RACES LAST SATURDAY NIGHT CONTAINED AN ODDS-ON FAVOURITE [ More Items ]  
Mug punters happily taking the tomato sauce odds and betting on the Group 1 Albion Park harness meeting last Saturday night were sure knocked for a six when the last of seven odds-on favourites that appeared at the meeting, Mac The Finn, got beaten at $1.40 in normal Tattsbet market after finalizing at an even shorter $1.35 in Tattsbet fixed odds operations. The pacer got beaten officially just over 137 metres (in words so there's no confusion that's one hundred and thirty seven) after sadly galloping in the run. I wonder is that beaten margin an Australian record for a long odds-on favourite? This photo raises the question, how come I can log on to the Tattsbet website and immediately find their "normal TAB win pool hold" on the race, yet I can't see what the Tattsbet "fixed odds win pool hold" is?
23/07/14

I get so many emails telling me what I’m doing wrong with my four websites that I’m surprised some of the Einsteins that send me their crap don’t actually open up a website or four, in competition to me - and see how they go – that’s if anyone would actually be interested reading the rubbish they’d write.

Needless to say writing one story a day – Monday to Friday inclusive - for one week would be a challenge to the website’s long list of detractors. And merely thinking of a diversity of subjects to write about for that week would probably present an insurmountable challenge to them, yet I’ve been able to come up with a story every day for a decade or more. Alleged top newspaper journalists don’t even attempt to pen a story daily and even when they do, they are generally the usual rot of what some “top” trainer or “talented” jockey thinks about some money-munching scrubber. To that end fancy a cat like Ironstein making the news before the Grafton Cup? Honestly the horse is such a slug that he doesn't deserve any story being either penned or spoken about him - unless of course it's extremely negative and commensurate with his CV. Personally I never write rubbish about what trainers or jockeys think, for as far as I’m concerned most are deplorable judges, so I wouldn’t waste my time penning such stupid stories here. You can read a million racing stories all over the worldwide web each year. “Patronizing garbage” – that’s what I call those stories. Obviously the more they suck up to the journalists, or racing radio or racing television anchor people, the more “free advertising” they’ll get via interviews and stories? The last thing I need is trainers or jockeys tipping me their horses. I’d be that far in debt from the punt over my lifetime that my besotted bride would be standing under a red street light in New Farm, in a mini skirt, in the middle of winter just to try to earn a dollar to feed us.

One email that came in last week got me a tad hot under the collar. The writer is well known in harness racing circles and advised me that the win pool hold that I’d displayed on the Albion Park pacing race last Saturday week in the Im Themightyquinn race, which showed a win pool of $11,900-odd wasn’t accurate and was nowhere near the correct win hold on the race because I didn’t take into account the fixed odds betting on the race. I advised the individual not to waste my time with such tripe, as I can’t publicly display figures that Tattsbet don’t release to the public. I can’t magically pluck numbers out of air. He claimed to have the right figures for the fixed odds win hold on the race. Maybe he’s the brother-in-law of the CEO’s second cousin or something? But the poor stupid fool in the general public, like me, isn’t given the figures and Joe Public can’t get access to the figures. Given the benefit of hindsight however, this harness racing sympathizer’s email raises an interesting question, which is worth mentioning publicly here today, that being “Why aren’t TABs around Australia required to show what their fixed odds hold on a race is, given the TABs now have fixed odds betting across the three codes”? If TABs don’t release figures on what is held in fixed odds betting, then how can any commentator like myself be reasonably expected to have the ability to compare this year’s holds to last year’s holds – and so on and so forth? In short we are a million-to-one and drifting of being able to do that under the present system.

So given the Albion Park harness racing meeting last Saturday night was a big Group 1 night of racing as well as the final night of the Brisbane Winter Carnival, I thought I’d monitor the normal Tattsbet win hold at last Saturday’s meeting. To that end, below is the normal Tattsbet win pool on each of the nine races on the Albion Park card. Interestingly the main Group 1 race on the night, the Blacks A Fake (Race 6) didn’t have the highest win pool hold in normal TAB operations (excluding fixed odds betting). That honour went to Race 1, which is understandable I guess, given that all the desperate and dateless, who had bet on the thoroughbreds earlier in the afternoon, couldn’t walk out of the club or TAB without having a bet on the opening race at the Albion Park harness meeting. Sort of “any port in a storm” stuff I guess.

Anyway here is the Tattsbet win pool (excluding fixed odds operations) for the nine races at Albion Park last Saturday night:

RACE

HOLD

WINNER

1

26,180

Emperor Montana

2

14,604

Deano Robyn

3

12,655

Fearless Leader

4

11,970

Five Card Draw

5

14,672

Jack Malone

6

18,220

Im Themightyquinn (Group 1)

7

16,936

Bling It On (Group 1)

8

11,823

Bettorthanspecial

9

10,325

California Sunset

There was another interesting event that happened at the Albion Park harness meeting last Saturday night and that was that on the nine-race card there were seven odds-on favourites (77.78% of the entire card) that went around on the night. The two seemingly “good things” on paper – Im themightyquinn and Bling It On – both started at officially $1.60. For those that aren’t aware, with the vast majority of Albion Park harness meetings being all-tote affairs in recent years, the final Tattsbet win dividend – in “normal win pool” operations, not “fixed odds win pool” operations) is deemed to be the starting price of each horse, even if a bookmaker is betting on course on the big nights.

 

Listed below is the “starting price” on the seven odds-on favourites that raced on the night, along with where the horse ran.

 

RACE

HORSE

STARTING PRICE

 

2

Deano Robyn

$1.80

Won

3

Fearless Leader

$1.30

Won

4

Chilli Palmer

$1.90

11th of 12

6

Im Themightyquinn

$1.60

Won

7

Bling It On

$1.60

Won

8

Bettor Promise

$1.80

Second

9

Mac The Finn

$1.40

7th of 7

 

So as you can see from the aforesaid, four of the seven ( 57.14%) odds-on favourites won and their starting price is highlighted above, so if the hapless punter backed all the “good things” at the tomato sauce odds at Albion Park for say $100 on each – he’d (I use the male gender “he’d”, as women wouldn’t be stupid enough to bet odds-on,  because it’s a testosterone thing) outlay $700 ($100 x 7 races) and only get back $630 based on the winners starting prices above.

 

And after the last one odds-on favourite, Mac The Finn, got beaten officially just 139 (yes in words that’s one hundred and thirty nine) metres, after galloping a couple of times, the poor punter was probably having visions of leaping from the Gateway Bridge using his umbrella as a parachute.

 

As I regularly write, backing equine or canine athletes at odds-on quotes is sure a mugs game and last Saturday night’s Albion Park harness meeting was just another example of how you still can’t win at the punting caper, even when some of the best horses in the country look head and shoulders above their opposition.

 

Then there was another interesting odds-on pacer yesterday in Race 1 at Menangle when the Luke McCarthy driven Ominous Warning was sent out as the money back ($1) favourite and a bolter named Francisco de Gore charged home and missed by only half a neck to run him down. So in the end, the mugs that backed Ominous Warning could lose on the race if the roughie ran him down, yet they stood no chance of making a profit via betting into the normal win pool on the race, even if Ominous Warning won by half a furlong, as he was a money back job (proof supplied of that statement on today’s www.brisbaneracing.com.au montage of photos). How is it ethical for a punter to run the risk of losing 100% of their stake, yet they have no chance of winning? It would only be at Tattsbet that that garbage would make sense, because it sure doesn’t make sense to anyone like me who was thankfully afforded a normal amount of grey matter at birth.

 

Now all we need is for the non-achievers at Tattsbet to put a new section on their results pages to advise what the fixed odds hold on each race is - and even I can get educated as to what the “real” win hold is on a Group 1 race at Albion Park, a Group 1 race at Eagle Farm like the Stradbroke, or a Group 1 event at the Albion Park dishlickers. What’s so secretive about the figures? I don’t like things that aren’t transparent. How come some like that emailer reckon they know the figures - and other poor simpletons like me don’t have a clue? So in other words anyone could come on say Tattsbet’s own radio station, RadioTAB, where people like me are banned - due to occasionally writing factual but negative stories about Tattsbet - and suggest that harness racing holds at Albion Park are through the roof because of fixed odds betting, yet the public that is forced to listen to such comments, unless of course they can quickly find the “off” switch, have no way of knowing whether what they are hearing is fact or fiction. Honestly the racing industry is already “incestuous” enough now, without any more cases of incest happening daily. Albion Park harness racing and Tattsbet – what a great quinella. I’ll give you some free advice “if a war even breaks out, don’t get in the trenches with either”.

 

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the third and final montage of photos from Eagle Farm and Albion Park last Saturday plus some file photos of achievers in racing. Was Luke Tarrant’s four winners at Eagle Farm last Saturday anything special? On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s a breeding story, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Victorian racing is perused.

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