Even little punters like myself can outlay a small amount of money and have a potential result of thousands of dollars if you can know what to back in future fixed race markets. Did you know to get down to the TAB last Saturday morning and back Divorces in the Thousand Guineas at 30/1 before she raced later that day at Randwick? My clients got a special email to that effect.

The various racing Carnivals around Australia are naturally the best time of the year to be involved from a punting viewpoint.

Carnival racing offers the best horses available from throughout Australia, all meeting at various capital cities and racing against each other. The better class of races brings with them increased prizemoney and often entire meetings full of black type racing. With the good Group racing, bookmakers generally go out of their way to make sure they are betting to low percentages, often down to 110% to 115% in Sydney and Melbourne. Tight markets give punters a fair chance at winning, so it would be a whole lot smarter betting into a 112% market rather than a 132% market. Even the various TAB’s get involved with incentives, such as a bonus on the win component of the clients bet, due to reduced taxation for that race and so on and so forth, so it is all a win-win situation for punters.

But it is all well and good having bookmakers betting to 112% or TAB’s reducing taxation on selected races, but all that is of little consequence if the punter can’t actually back a winner as the bookies percentage may as well have been 85% if your bet runs a nice tenth.

So how does the punter come to achieve the tricky part - that being backing an elusive winner? Well that eternally has been the tricky part. Punters try numerous different methods to get their hands on a winner and some of those methods include listening to the trainer or the jockeys prattle on in interviews about a galloper they are connected with. However racing authorities hogtie interviewees to the point where they all talk what I’d call “positive garbage.” As I've written here before - many trainers couldn’t train a choko vine to run over the outhouse and others are so positive that you’d need to have a chucky bucket handy just to listen to an interview, as you could heave up the contents of your stomach at any time - often totally involuntarily. If you backed horses that trainers and or jockeys tipped publicly you’d have no option but to finish up with a sandshoe on one foot and a thong on the other - and you could book the family in now to spend Christmas Day at the Salvation Army.

Being “high profile” and/or “successful” trainers doesn’t mean the horses they tip to the public are any good. As an example last Saturday morning “high profile and successful” trainer Chris Waller, who I must also add is natures gentleman, tried to do the right thing by punters so he tipped radio listeners Pay And Play in Race 1 at Randwick. A few hours later the galloper clocked in officially last at $3.20.

For the public record I only bother listening to two trainers when they speak. Both are measured in their assessments, talk a lot of sense and are often close to the mark with their assessment of their Carnival horses. Who are the two trainers? Mick Price and Peter Snowden.

I don’t listen to any high profile jockeys when they are interviewed as I’ve found most have infatuated views of a horse’s ability and if you look life squarely in the eye, there aren’t many top racehorses around at any one time. There may well be somewhere between 18,000 and 25,000 thoroughbred foals born each year, but only a very minuscule percentage of those will go on and race, let alone be competitive at black type level.

So if the vast majority of trainers and jockeys aren’t accurate in their assessments where can the punter turn to, to get some quality information? Maybe racing television stations? No, that won’t work as those outlets are filled with what I’d call “urgers” who would even attempt to talk up the Holocaust. Listen to their highly paid staff that inhabit the studio on a Saturday morning and afternoon and again you have to keep a chucky bucket handy, as the amount of urging that goes on is almost unbearable. I wonder do authorities keep any accurate record of suicide rates of punters who leap to their deaths from tall buildings, bridges or the like - just because they’ve lost everything through listening to “urgers” in the industry.

You could go to the warm and fuzzy newspaper articles for help, or maybe head straight for the various Form Guides for the “experts” tips. Oops, that one won’t work either, as a quick look back over last Saturday’s results shows they all tipped Fillydelphia in Brisbane and she went missing in action at $1.65. Well one did dare to tip away from her (Mark Oberhardt) and he was wrong by a couple of inches at $14 as he tipped Just About Ready, so at least he didn’t concede it was a waste of time holding the race.

In Sydney last Saturday in Race 8 most of the boys tipped Tromso as their top pick. I say “boys” because maybe we should get more sheilas tipping racehorses as they couldn’t be any more hopeless than the males - after Tromso ran a disgraceful fifth of six for the “boys” after opening on course officially at $1.80.

Down in Melbourne nothing much changed as none of the “experts” could find Shocking. The horse wasn’t tipped to run a place, except by Greg Spletter in The Sportsman who tipped him to run second.

So you can use any barometer you like, but you’ll never win money by any of the following – 1) listening to trainer interviews, 2) listening to 50-kilo bundles of joy interviews, 3) perusing a dozen “experts” tips in the papers or Best Bets, Sportsman or Winning Post, or 4) by listening to the “experts” on radio or television.

The reason a punter cannot win following tipsters is quite simple – they tip in every race, so if there are eight races on a program they’ll tip a minimum of three horses in each race - some tip about six and still can't find the winner - so no person born can consistently tip eight winners on top, even if they have three selections per race. They will be more likely to tip somewhere between one and three winners from the eight races as their on-top selection. Suppose you had a unit measure of one dollar each way on each of those eight on-top selections you would outlay $16 on a meeting. You can work the sums out for yourself but just to come out square and not win so much as one dollar you need to have one dollar each way on a 12/1 winner, or you need to have one dollar each way on two 6/1 winners, or one dollar each way on three 4/1 winners and so on and so forth. Short priced winners are of little use to punters as if instead of having $1 each way you have say $2 a win on selections, you have to back four 6/4 winners on an eight race card just to get back more than $16 – and we all know it would be highly unlikely that four short priced favourites would get home on any given eight race card.

So how would you stand the best chance of winning?

I say it is often easier to win backing racehorses to lose rather than backing them to win – in other words the punter now plays bookmaker. Just in the last 12 days this websites Sectional Times service has given clients five short priced lays out of five that have got beaten - and those five horses were Smart ($3.70), Rightson ($2.60), Poor Judge ($2.80) from Doomben on 28/8/10, Snow Alert ($2.80) from 3/9/10 in the Wyong Gold Cup and Tromso ($1.80 to $3) last Saturday at Randwick. So clients haven’t had to lay a horse over 11/4 on Betfair to win good money. If punters only lay short priced horses they don’t like on Betfair they are a chance of winning, but by laying horses over a certain price the Betfair client runs the risk of getting cleaned up. My clients have long ago been advised the maximum recommended price to lay horses to.

The most common reason punters lose is that they have absolutely no discipline. They have no rules to abide by, so they’ll simply have too many bets in an afternoon on the punt. If they were to have say two bets on a Saturday afternoon they would be some hope of picking one winner, or maybe if they got really lucky two occasionally, but by having 20 bets an afternoon they’ll win occasionally but are no hope long term.

For $11.54 a week punters can get an educational tool to work with via subscribing to this website’s Sectional Times service. Do you know what horses to back during racing Carnivals so that you can get on Group horses at the top odds? The trick with getting value is to bet on Saturday morning into futures markets. On Saturday morning at scratching deadline time you know what’s running and what’s not, so if a horse you want to back in a futures market is going to the races that afternoon you know as at say 9am the horse is healthy. Then you just have to back your judgement. Included in your $11.54 outlay per week I’ll even give you the names of the horses to back, then Sunday morning you can see that you are clearly on at the top odds.

My clients often know a month or more out from a race what to back in big Group 1 races that will be run during a Carnival and to that end below are the only two race day emails that I have sent out to my Sectional times clients the last two Saturday mornings.

The one to Melbourne Sectional times clients emailed on Saturday 28/8/10 reads:

By now clients who follow what is written in my Sectional Times reports should have hopefully had a spec bet each way at huge odds on MOUDRE in the Spring features of the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup following what was advised in the Race 8 Flemington report of 15/5/10.

For those that haven’t – below is what was written in that report - and today might be your last chance to get big odds (currently 20/1 each way in the Caulfield Cup and 25/1 each way in the Melbourne Cup) about Moudre in the Cups as if he wins this afternoon he’ll firm up again.

“You’d have to conclude that this was one of the best - if not the best - wins around Australia last Saturday. I accept the winner Moudre was a 16/1 chance here, but surely to goodness he must have plenty of ability to demolish this field, and run by far the closest  time to the track record all day. He has “promising stayer” written all over him. They are talking about backing him up next Saturday and I hope they do, because if he can win again like this he is a very serious racehorse – and wait for it – he’s a Spring Carnival horse. Finally we’ve found a Spring Carnival “Cup’s horse” as he should furnish into a horse that would be suited in races like the country Cup’s, as this horse was only having start number 10 and his breeding tells you a) he should be able to run ground and b) he’ll be a duck. He’s won four of his last six now, but because he’s won them in the bush no one, including myself, took any notice of it, nor should they normally, but to run 1.65 seconds off the track record here was what I’d call “an incredible effort” on the day. Put it this way, we now know the horse has got plenty of ability, so if he doesn’t go on with it, it is trainer error. Good horses make good trainers – not the other way around.

The rest of the field were in a different class.

From the meeting I thought (name withheld) and Moudre are the two to follow for profit long term, as both have good future prospects.”

Clients are also advised that I would recommend an each way spec bet on TOORAK TOFF in the Caulfield Guineas before he runs today in Sydney as he is a much improved galloper this time in – in my opinion. He's currently 8/1 each way in the Caulfield Guineas and I think that is a good price. I didn't do a report on the Caulfield meeting when he won last start because of the "slow track", but was most taken with the win and when Hore-Lacy gets a good horse he can keep them performing at their peak over quite a few runs.

(Footnote: Moudre is now favourite in the Caulfield Cup. Many clients are on at far bigger odds than that after this was written of Moudre’s win at Flemington on 15/5/10 at 16/1. Toorak Toff was a $9 chance the morning of the Golden Rose and is now shorter, so my clients are on both these gallopers at the best odds due to Saturday morning emails. All they had to do was wake up whenever and where ever, have bacon and eggs for breakfast – read my email, then bet).

Last Saturday morning Sydney Racing Sectional times clients got an email advising them to back Divorces in the Thousand Guineas at $31 a win and $8.50 a place before she raced last Saturday afternoon. She’s now less than half those odds. That email in full read:

Resuming today at Randwick from a spell is the handy Peter Snowden trained filly DIVORCES. She is still a Maiden but won’t be for too much longer if I am any sort of judge. I expect her to be the filly to beat in the VRC Oaks, but unfortunately no betting outlet has a fixed price market up on that race at this stage. There is a market up however for the Thousand Guineas, which is a race for 3YO fillies at Caulfield on 13 October and the best fixed odds price available is $31 a win and $8.50 a place (Tattsbet) and I consider that to be worthy of a spec bet this morning before she races later today at Randwick.

In conclusion you are a chance of winning if you can get the names of the right short priced horses to lay – and you don’t need to have much on a horse like Moudre at 80/1 in first Cup markets, or even at 20/1 later on to win a Caulfield Cup, or on Toorak Toff to win a Caulfield Guineas at 8/1, or Divorces to win the Thousand Guineas at 30/1. You’ll also be a more educated punter if you can get a totally unbiased and normally accurate idea of what horses will make good horses and which ones are overrated.

With clients in six countries, Sectional Times is widely regarded as the best value racing product on the market in this country – and a free sample of what clients get emailed to them is available to peruse on the Sectional Times click on, on the left hand side of this website.

In other sad and breaking news, respected Toowoomba trainer Russell Kirwan passed away suddenly yesterday morning at his home. Funeral details will be advised in due course.