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Headlines Today is 05/07/2015
QUEENSLAND CUP IS A SHOCKER FOR THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW [ More Items ]  
Today is a special day for our family as my granddaughter Simone turns 18. It's many moons since this photo of the two of us was taken on a cold night in Ipswich, but to mark Simone's special day I refuse to be negative (just for today) and put up a (vomitable and totally out of character) positive preview on the 2015 Queensland Cup on my Brisbaneracing website.
03/07/15

One really has to wonder what direction the Queensland thoroughbred industry was heading in when the Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk thankfully gave all Racing Queensland Boards the flick.

Iíve already written a couple of stories on how pathetic it was to have a $2million Stradbroke in 2015. That was just poser stuff and it was also just a waste of industry money as far as Iím concerned. Fancy all those cats racing for $2million.

Then last Saturday the industry had to endure yet another one of those awful $100,000 Maiden events. They are just an embarrassment. In fact last Saturdayís winner had been incapable of winning a race in seven starts before last Saturday and the winnerís form was so ordinary coming in to the race that bookies bet 30/1 about its chances, meaning they rated the horse a bit over a 3% chance of winning. But that didnít stop the gelding winning easily.

Now tomorrow thereís another waste of $150,000 of industry prizemoney being directed towards the Queensland Cup at Caloundra. The race still has Listed status in 2015, but it will have to pick its act up in the coming years if it is going to retain its black type status.

From a form perspective, the Queensland Cup in the last couple of years has been the kiss of death for horses competing in it. Let me go back over the last two years placegetters and youíll see what I mean.

In 2015 that slow Sydney trained horse Iggi Pop won the Queensland Cup from Pop Ďní Scotch with Brayroan third. Iggi Pop has run only placing since he returned to stunned silence at Eagle Farm after his Cup win. For his part Pop Ďní Scotch has had nine starts since for just one win and that was on that awful what Iíd call ďhurdlers flat, or provincial cupĒ race that they have on Ipswich Cup day. And for his part Brayroan has never started again.

The July 2014 version of the Queensland Cup was won by Turner Bayou. He started just once afterwards and that was in a barrier trial in August of 2014 and he got beaten just 16 lengths and heís never been sighted since. Fifth Column ran second in the 2014 Queensland Cup and heís had 10 subsequent starts for two placings. Verdant ran third to Turner Bayou and Fifth Column and heís had 13 starts since (in words so thereís no confusion here thatís thirteen) and heís won none of the 13.

So in summary, the six horses that have been placed first, second or third in the last two Queensland Cups have cumulatively won one race since Ė via Pop Ďní Scotch winning at Ipswich on 13 June 2015. Terrific stuff Ė so we need a really good horse to stand up in the race this year to ensure its black type status and today on my Brisbaneracing website Iíve intentionally put a really positive spin on the preview of the race up. Who says Iím negative. Iíve seen the 2015 Queensland Cup bagged in a few places, but Iím here to tell you that ďbeauty is in the eye of the beholderĒ and itís what some of those that we have to endure each race day on racing radio and television may well even call ďa great raceĒ.

Racing Queensland Chief Handicapper Lester Grimmett has advised the website that the scaled weights for Caloundra tomorrow are: Race 1 + 1.5kgs, Race 3 - 1kg, Race 4 Ė 0.50kg, Race 5 + 1.5kgs and Race7 + 2.5kgs. So in my words, not Lesterís, Race 7 is an ordinary quality 3YOís.

Caloundra Track Manager Murray Weeding on RadioTAB this morning about 8.30am advised that the Caloundra track was a ďheavy 8Ē and he didnít expect it to improve much from that so if readers work off a heavy 8/slow 7 that should be as close to the money as champion sprinter Smokiní Joey was at Ipswich in the Eye Liner Stakes there a few weeks ago.

The apprentice jockey weights for Caloundra tomorrow should be:

JOCKEY

WEIGHT

Luke Dittman

55 claims 3kgs

Rikki Jamieson

50 claims 2kgs

Bridget Grylls

49 claims 2kgs

Ruby Ride

50 claims 3kgs

Geoffrey Goold

54 claims 2kgs

Alannah Fancourt

54 claims 3kgs

Mitchell Wood

54 claims 3kgs

Sam Payne

53.5 claims 2kgs

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au I do something really stupid and put up a positive preview of the Queensland Cup. Seeing everyone else is bagging it Iíll show what a great race it really is, if one goes right into the form. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there's a story on Lauren Panella being confirmed as having eight broken bones after a race fall, plus there's also the heads up on a new scratching fee being introduced into harness racing in NSW, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au thereís a thoroughbred breeding story.

The Postman has sent his thoughts through and they read:

Caulfield plays host to metropolitan racing in Victoria tomorrow & I think Raposo can notch up another win in what looks a very good progression from his last start victory @ Moonee Valley a fortnight ago. Raposo doesn't do himself any favours with his nasty habit of beginning slowly, but despite that I think he has enough upside to take care of this lot over 1400m. His effort two starts back over 1200m was very good after settling near the rear of the field & railing hard to go under an eyelash in a photo behind Duke of Brunswick. Last start he again began slowly & was run off his feet early with Gloop tearing along in front. Raposo eventually tacked on inside the 600m & was then held up & searching for runs approaching the home turn. Jockey Jessica Payne held her nerve & persevered for a run on the inside & eventually burst through late for a big win.

Tomorrow Raposo steps out to 1400m @ Caulfield which looks ideal as there looks to be an abundance of pace on paper, giving him plenty of opportunity to cross in behind them & get settled. I'm expecting Volcanic Ash, Zahspeed, Mihany & Cataleya to hunt forward & set up a strong tempo for the first half of the race. If Jessica can keep Raposo in touch with them approaching the turn, I think she can produce him in the last 400m & finish over the top of them. Raposo's profile suggests there is more to come this prep & I expect we will see that tomorrow given even luck. His rise in the weights doesn't overly concern me as Jessica Payne's claim brings him down to just 3kg above the limit. Of the others, Actuariat will race well despite the 59.5kg. Volcanic Ash should battle on well & Herstory will go well out to 1400m. I think however that Raposo will have their measure & I'll be betting with confidence.

Raposo is currently around $3.60 with most agencies & I think that's a shade of overs. I have Raposo marked 9/4 or $3.25.

Caulfield 5-3 Raposo

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