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Headlines Today is 01/04/2015
HOW DID "LONG TERM LOSER" TO THE WORLD RESUMING FROM A SPELL IN A GROUP ONE RACE OVER 2400 METRES OPEN EVEN MONEY ON COURSE? [ More Items ]  
With hindsight was this headline correct given To The World could only beat Beaten Up in narrowly last Saturday in The BMW yet that galloper has only won one race in the last 41 months and Beaten Up was also a "long term loser" as he hadn't won a race for 22 months before last Saturday?
31/03/15

In my humble opinion, the most amazing event that happened in thoroughbred racing last Saturday surely had to be the way that many people talked up the Japanese invader, To The World, before the race. They told of why he’d win and why he was the best Japanese horse to ever grace our shores - and all the rest of it? His first problem, which most conveniently forgot however and which I didn’t hear them mention is that he’d actually been incapable of winning a race anywhere for over 12 months before he walked out onto the Rosehill course proper to race last Saturday afternoon. In fact he hadn’t won a race anywhere since 9/3/14 in Japan and then even when he won that race on that particular day he fell in by a nose at $1.60. Yet roll the clock on more than 12 months and he turns up to play at Rosehill, first-up from a 12 week spell and the bookies open him on course on the day at even money. There was his next problem, he was first-up from a spell and his CV says he’s never won a race in his career to this point when first-up. Guess what? After last Saturday his CV still says he’s never won first-up.

Over 12 months ago on a monthly basis for a full 12-month period, I exclusively researched both topics of 1) what percentage of horses win Saturday city races when resuming from a spell and 2) how many horses win a race again in Saturday city class, when they haven’t won a race in the last 12 months or more. Across the three eastern seaboard capitals of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, the figure was less than 10% in both categories. Then throw in a third one in the case of To The World – namely “How any horses win a Group 1 race in Australia first-up at 2400 metres?” And without researching the answer over an extended period it’s a no-brainer that the answer would be “so few that it wouldn’t even register”.

Then to add insult to injury, when he ran second last Saturday, To The World beat Beaten Up in by a long neck. For his part, Beaten Up has won just one race in the last 41 months – and that victory came in the Group 1 Doomben Cup in 2013 – so he’s hardly Hall of Fame bound.

Just to show readers I’m not simply being wise after the event, this is the preview of the race to my Saturday Morning Mail clients:

ROSEHILL Race 7 - 4:30PM 3YO + WFA GROUP 1 THE BMW (2400 METRES)

HORSE

COMMENT

PROTECTIONIST

Melbourne Cup winner of last year that has gone like a mule at two starts for Lees, so I couldn’t have him today.

WHO SHOT THEBARMAN

Third in the Melbourne Cup last year but he’s not a WFA horse – so no.

BEATEN UP

Just the one win in the last 41 months was in the Group 1 Doomben Cup in 2013 – so hardly. Pacifiers go on for the first time today.

OPINION

Just the one win in the last 12 months was in the Group 2 The Metropolitan on 4/10/14 - but he’s too inconsistent for mine.

EXTRA ZERO

His sole win in the last 36 months was by a short head at Flemington on 1/1/15. Yet to win past 2000 and this is 2400 – so no.

FAST DRAGON

Led and fainted last Saturday at 60/1 in the Contributer race – so hardly.

TO THE WORLD

Japanese raider that hasn’t won for over 12 months (last win 9/3/14 Japan by a nose at $1.60). Has only had five starts in the last 12 months and four of the five were at Group 1 level, so he’s obviously a serious racehorse, but he has to be taken on trust racing first-up for 12 weeks at 2400 metres, which is a nice old ask.

HARTNELL

Romped in 14 days ago here over 2000m after running second to the classy Contributer at WFA the previous start. He looks to be top class under O’Shea’s training, so he should run in the first two today.

SILENT ACHIEVER

Went like a mule when tipped here the other day, so I’ve officially given up on her - as she hasn’t won for 51 weeks meaning she’ll be a “long term loser” in one week’s time.

LUCIA VALENTINA

Ran home fairly in the Contributer race last Saturday at this track, but the quick back-up is a concern, as is the fact that she’s never won past 2000m and this is 2400m.

RISING ROMANCE

SCRATCHED.

HAMPTON COURT

Just racing awfully at present - and is no hope here.

Additional comments: Only two hopes are To The World and Hartnell and I’d back Hartnell win only.

Furthermore my clients were also advised that the BMW winner Hartnell was the best bet of the day around Australia via this wording:

RACE DAY SUMMARY: I name Hartnell win only as the best bet of the day as I cannot for the life of me see how there are more than two winning chances in this race and yet the whole world has concluded that the Japanese "long term loser" is over the line.

And last Saturday’s Saturday Morning Mail report showed yet again how a punter for a very small outlay can still win good money. Here’s the preview of the final race at Rosehill where clients were advised to box an Exacta, the cost of which was $6 for a $1 unit. The return of $42.70 (NSW TAB), equates to a punter backing a winner at better than 6/1 with a bookie (and getting your stake back). In fact, in this instance, it’s a shame that I didn’t grow some - and advise clients to box the same three horses in a Trifecta as that exotic paid $455 (NSW TAB) for the same $6 outlay which equates to having $6 on a better than 74/1 winner (and getting your stake back). That Race 9 preview read:

ROSEHILL Race 9 - 5:50PM 3YO+ GROUP 3 NEVILLE SELLWOOD STAKES (2000 METRES)

HORSE

COMMENT

FORETELLER

Just the one win in the last 18 months was by a half head at Caulfield on 20/9/14 and he’s been unplaced at all six runs since – so no.

HAWKSPUR

His only win in the last 18 months was on 6/9/14 by a nose but he showed a massive improvement last start to run third to Hartnell at 30/1 at this track and distance. Awfully hard to beat if he repeats the latest effort.

JUNOOB

One win in the last 51 weeks was at Randwick on 20/9/14. Unplaced at his last five outings, so he’s hard to have.

MOURO

SCRATCHED.

PORNICHET

He’s only won one race since coming to be trained by Waterhouse and that was at Sandown on 15/11/14. If Waterhouse has him ready to run out 2000 metres strongly today he’s the horse to beat as I like his ability. If I’m wrong I’ll only be one run out.

DISCLAIMER

His only win in the last 22 months was on 18/9/14 in the Newcastle Cup and he hasn’t got sighted at three runs since resuming from 17 weeks off – so no.

SLOW PACE

Hasn’t won a race anywhere for the last 21 months but he’s a better horse than his form indicates however he’s still impossible to have today jumping 500 metres in trip in one run.

OUR VOODOO PRINCE

Hasn’t run a place at his last five starts but this race is so weak that he gets his chance to improve today at very big odds, so include in all multiples as a minimum. Blinkers go on for the first time today, which might jolt him into action.

INDEX LINKED

SCRATCHED.

DESTINY’S KISS

Three runs back from 21 weeks off have resulted in three unplaced runs, so I couldn’t have him here. Blinkers go on again today.

SINGING FLAME

Overraced badly last start 14 days ago here with an apprentice on board, so he’s impossible to have here jumping 500 metres.

HIMALAYA DREAM

Just one win in the last 22 months was here last start on a soft 6 track over 500 metres less, so not for me.

DEAR DEMI

Her only win in the last 22 months was by a short-half-head at Moonee Valley on 26/9/14 – so no.

Additional comments: I’d box an Exacta of, in racebook order Hawkspur, Pornichet and Our Voodoo Prince.

Still in Sydney and bookmakers should have their annual fill by now via simply laying First Seal over the gap at her last two starts. Last Saturday she was officially $2.10 into $1.80 and got rolled by a short neck. At her previous start 14 days earlier in the Coolmore she was $2 into $1.60 before going down by a wart that day to Plucky Belle. First Seal also got beaten at $3.70 on 14/2/15 at Randwick in the Group 2 Light Fingers and at $2.15 in the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Randwick on 11/10/14. And prior to that she got rolled at $4.20 after opening at $2.80 on 30/8/14 at Rosehill and at $3.60 after opening at $3 at Canterbury in a 2YO Fillies Maiden on 14/5/14. Given she’s only had 10 starts in her career-to-date she’s certainly been a money muncher for punters and a blessing for bookies as she’s got rolled at short prices six times.

Down south the Melbourne Saturday meeting was at Mornington but the club let the industry down by not being able to supply a last 600-metre race sectional in any of the 10 races that were run on the day. If race clubs around Australia want to play with the big boys and host “Saturday city race meetings”, they need to be ensure that the basic infrastructure at their track is working. In 2015 basic things such as official correct overall time and race last 600-metre sectional should be easy to present to their supposed valued client – punters.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the first of two montages of photos from Doomben last Saturday, plus others of interest. On www.sydneyracing.com.au Bernard Kenny writes on Vancover and other stallion prospects, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Victorian racing is perused.

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