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Headlines Today is 01/11/2014
WHY JUSTRACING WOULD TIP RACEHORSES AND PRODUCE RACING REPORTS - AND BE CAREFUL BACKING HORSES THAT HAVE NOT YET PROVED THEY CAN CARRY WEIGHT [ More Items ]  
More proof just keeps jumping off the page at me each race day suggesting very few people involved in racing media actually have a clue what they are doing. Here is a photo of two of today's Form Guides telling us that Mulaqen broke the track record when he won over the ridiculously odd distance of 2406 metres on 18/10/14 at Randwick. I could run quicker than that overall time myself for the distance, carrying a bag of pre-mix concrete on my head. As a matter of interest the track record for 2400 metres at Randwick is 2.26.36, so it took Mulaqen 4.77 seconds, which equates to 28.62 lengths, to run a further six metres and some fool has concluded it's a "track record", which is highly deceptive, as now punters launch into say La Amistad tomorrow thinking she came out of that alleged fast run race last start, whereas in reality it was as slow as a wet week in Tully. I just shake my head at the crap I see happen and at the odd email that comes across my desk as I continue to just call it like it is. So today I explain a few facts of life about running multiple racing websites to those few that weren't granted the normal amount of grey matter at birth.
31/10/14

Last Wednesday (29/10/14) I penned an article entitled “How To Punt Successfully In Weight For Age Races Explained And The Troops In The Far North Aren’t Happy With Racing Queensland” and in that article I endeavoured to point out to those punters that wanted to learn, that a punter should never automatically assume that a horse will be able to carry the weight he or she has been allocated by the Handicapper, as, put simply, some horses can carry weight and others can’t.

Here’s part of what I wrote in that article:

Another point that punters should be aware of – and obviously the vast majority aren’t – is that “many horses cannot carry weight”. The older punters would well remember Welter Handicaps run in Sydney as having big fields, with top class horses seemingly being asked to carry the grandstand. Yet as per historical race day results of yesteryear that I’ve put up here occasionally in the past, the topweight would often still win the race. My conclusion is that “modern day thoroughbreds are pretty much sooks and can’t carry weight”. This is particularly so in weight-for-age (WFA) racing and is extremely important for punters to understand. Put simply just because a horse is in a WFA race doesn’t mean it will be able to carry the allotted weight. Historically in the annals of thoroughbred history you will hear someone say “he’s a great WFA age horse” and they are often “a great WFA horse” simply because they can do something that most of the other horses engaged in the race cannot do – namely carry weight. It’s a topic I have been meaning to educate punters who want to learn (some don’t need to learn - they already know it all) about the topic for ages, so whilst it’s fresh in my mind, let’s go back and reflect on the WFA race run at Moonee Valley last Friday night and Saturday afternoon as a guide.

On Friday night the Group 1 Manikato Stakes was run. It finished up an exciting race to watch with basically the entire field hitting the line as one, with officially less than 1.75 lengths covering 10 of the 12 runners on the line. It was a sprint race over 1200 metres and as I’ve written educational stories on the topic before “weight is irrelevant in sprint races up to and including 1200 metres”, so take no notice of WFA weights in sprint races up to 1200 metres. It’s irrelevant if Lankan Rupee has 58.5kgs and a hopeful two-year-old has 46kgs or whatever as nine times out of 10 in WFA sprint racing, the higher weighted horses beat the young ones in pointlessly. Even in handicap racing weights are irrelevant up to and including 1200 metres as I’ve proven numerous times. And again last Saturday Love Rocks, originally handicapped with the grandstand weight of 62.5kgs, but getting three kilos off in the race for an apprentice, never looked in danger of defeat from a cumulative group of cats that had much less weight than him. And to add to the woes of the beaten brigade, Love Rocks was first up for 44 weeks.

Once you get past 1201 metres though it is my considered opinion that “the goal posts change dramatically” and weights being carried in WFA races suddenly comes to the fore, hence you often see the same horse winning time and again – like say in recent times, the Peter Moody trained Dissident. He won the WFA Memsie Stakes, then he won the WFA Makybe Diva and then he got beaten a wart in a deceptive photo in the Sir Rupert Clarke at WFA. He’s what I’d call “not much good” in terms of horses I’ve seen in my lifetime, but he fits the WFA topliner profile perfectly, as all he has to do to have the “WFA topliner profile” is obviously 1) have some measure of natural ability to start with, 2) be able to sit up on the pace as WFA races are historically run slower than a wet week in Tully and 3) be able to carry weight. Many horses have 1) and 2) yet 3) is strangely clearly beyond them.

As a guide to that aforesaid statement, last Saturday it seemed everyone except myself thought that Akavoroun was a winning chance in the Group 2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley. It’s history now that the race was won in near track record time by Hooked. Yet due to the fact that the race was being run at weight-for-age (WFA), Akavoroun had no option whatsoever but to carry 59kgs. In my opinion, he was no hope - as he’d been incapable of winning a race at his previous three starts with a mere 53kgs, 52kgs and 54.5kgs. If he can’t carry those three weights to win Group races, how the hell was he going to carry up to 7kgs more than he’d carried at his previous three starts and win? Additionally he’d never started in a WFA race, so he was sailing in unchartered waters before he started. Always remember that until you have climbed Mount Everest – you haven’t. Don’t assume just because you can climb the Glasshouse Mountains that you can climb Mount Everest. Don’t assume that a horse that finishes strongly over 1600 metres will automatically run 1800 or 2000 metres strongly. Don’t assume because a horse wins a race at Eagle Farm by 10 lengths on a heavy 10 track that it will handle a slow 7 track at Randwick – and so on and so forth. So my message to punters is clear: “Back proven WFA horses in WFA races”. Don’t assume the new kid on the block will automatically carry weight. You’re better off taking 6/4 when that new kid has proven he can carry weight, rather than taking 6/1 on a wing and a prayer that he will. That’s why bookies are fat and rich – most punters are non thinkers – they assume. And as the saying goes “an assumption is a monumental **** up”.

So back to the score at the Test and by contrast last Saturday in Akavoroun’s race, the winner, Hooked, had 58.5kgs to lump, but last season he’d been placed in Group 1 races like the $2 million Australian Derby in an 18-horse field with 56.5kgs on 12/4/14 on a heavy 9 track, so he must have lumped that weight through the mud okay that day, to allow him to be placed, so therefore it was logical that six months later - as a bigger, more seasoned and stronger horse - that he would have no problem carrying an extra two kilos over 800 metres less and win the Crystal Vase.

So when betting in WFA races, always check back on a debut WFA runner’s CV to see if the horse you are looking at can carry weight - as you can take it from me that a hell of a lot can’t.

And so it came to pass that within just a couple of days of my writing that article there’s a favourite starting at Flemington tomorrow that I wouldn’t touch with a barge pole. It’s not because the horse is not in form - as the horse is fairly flying to the point where he’s going for three in a row tomorrow. It’s not because he hasn’t raced for 28 days because his CV shows as recently as August this year he won off that exact same break of 28 days between runs. It’s not because he has never raced the Melbourne way of going – he has. In fact he’s been placed at his only two starts at Flemington. It’s not because the jockey on him tomorrow doesn’t know him – as he won a Group 1 race on him last start at Randwick.

There’s one primary reason why I won’t be having 10 cents on the horse to win tomorrow and that is simply because the horse has never proven to me that he can carry weight - and until he does - I want absolutely nothing to do with him with his 59kgs impost.

The horse is Flemington Race 6 Horse 8 He’s Your Man. To set the record straight, I tipped the horse to my Saturday Morning Mail clients in the Epsom Handicap last start, so he’s near and dear to my heart in recent times, but I will publicly advise before the race here today - not after it - that I won’t be tipping him on top to clients tomorrow.

Let me explain why. When he won the Group 1 Epsom last start (4/10/14) by only a nose beating non-winner Royal Descent he carried just 52.5kgs. When he won the Group 3 Kingston Town Stakes the start before (13/9/14) defeating Kingdoms (one win in the last 12 months) he carried 56.5kgs. A look back over his only three other previous career wins shows us that He’s Your Man’s three other winning weights have been 55kgs, 56kgs (France) and 56kgs (also France).

So as at today, He’s Your Man has never carried more than 56.5kgs to victory. Tomorrow he’s racing in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes, the exact same class as the Epsom was last start, but because the Mackinnon Stakes is run at weight-for-age and not under handicap conditions, he jumps a massive 6.5kgs. He might win with his head on his chest - and if he does I’ll look like a right royal wanker, but it’s a case of “no guts no glory” when you have an opinion, as I always do - and as long as the “opinion” is right more times than it is wrong over a period of each calendar year, you will be ahead of 90% of punters who don’t notice such things before their eyes.

Those punters watching for this aforesaid scenario to unfold - that I’ve explained in detail twice this week – and who avoid backing the horse/s in question will save a fortune in their punting life.

And as for my “opinion being right more times than it is wrong” let’s just go back to last weekend so we don’t have to stretch the memory too far.

My Horsewinners clients got tipped one horse. This is how their Friday night newsletter read:

Tomorrow I like one horse each way at double figure odds and he races as Rosehill Race 8 Horse 12 YOU’LL NEVER.

He’s had a nine-week freshen up since he last raced on a heavy 8 track at Randwick on 23/8/14 and his CV suggests that he has good fresh form.

Most of the horses in this event are either resuming from a spell (a spell is defined as 12 weeks inclusive or longer) - or they are suspect at the trip. I’m confident that the pace will be frantic from the outset in this race, due to many speed horses being engaged, so I specifically went looking for a horse that had the capacity to run home hard over the top of them late.

You’ll Never is around $12 each way fixed odds currently.

And after a debut 2YO called Hot Snippety won at Doomben on 11/10/14, I advised my Brisbane Sectional Times clients this:

The Overview paints the accurate picture here and Hot Snippety never looked in danger so he may win another Saturday city race as a 2YO, but the others are guaranteed personally by me to be “legless in the general score of things” – and aren’t worth feeding at this point in time.

So what emanated from that statement? The winner Hot Snippety went to Melbourne and got beaten half a furlong by a first starter called Fontiton, whilst the horse that ran second in that Doomben race - Falchion – which was therefore obviously one of the beaten brigade that I had referred to in my report as “guaranteed personally by me to be legless in the general score of things” promptly went to the Gold Coast last Saturday and got thrashed by 5.75 lengths at the luxurious odds of $1.70 in a 2YO Maiden by a first starter called Mishani Honcho.

Some chap sent me an email recently about my calling horses cats and donkeys in my reports and publicly on the website and also questioned my ethics as to why I would need to sell tips, so I’m happy to address such issues publicly - once and for all.

I wonder how brain-dead some of these people are? If they just sit back with their eyes open and ears and mouth closed, for even one moment if that isn’t beyond them, they might actually learn something, because if I call a horse a “donkey”, you can bet your sweet you know what that the thing is a donkey. It’s funny in life if something looks like a donkey, smells like a donkey and races like a donkey – on the balance of probability it’s a donkey. So get over it sister – I just call it like it is and don’t pander to all this passive crap that most males go on with about racehorses. Call their wife ugly they don’t mind – call their donkey a donkey and they get all girly and precious about it - and their feminine side shines through.

And yes it is 100% correct that I sell racing information for money. I asked this bloke whether he’d have any objection to me earning a living and paying for my way through life using skills I have learnt, or would he prefer to see me retire to the Gold Coast and sit on a beach all day? Given the fact that I’m 59 years old and I’ve been involved in racing for the last 47 years, if I don’t have some knowledge of the subject now, I’d have to be a total fool.

Why do I sell tips for money? Well put simply there are four websites to pay for. They didn’t get constructed for free - and as I have no skills in that area I had to pay full tote odds for them to be built. They all have to be hosted by someone to allow them to be visible 24/7. They don’t miraculously appear out of thin air? Like any business venture you can’t pay out a large diversity of expenses with no income being generated. And to that end, there are really only two ways that my four racing websites can pay for themselves and that is 1) via banner advertising and 2) selling racing products and services.

The expenses are numerous, as for instance there are two secretarial staff (one main secretary and one assistant) to type reports and stories, then there’s another staff member that proof-reads work after it’s gone up live on the websites, so if there’s a spelling error spotted then that can be addressed hopefully within an hour of it going up. There are also staff that do the behind the scenes IT work including paying one business a monthly consultancy to be on tap 24/7 in case of hacking, the websites and/or Internet crashing, etcetera. Then there’s an Accounts Dept that works for the five different website services (three State Sectional Times, Saturday Morning Mail plus Horsewinners) because there are accounts to send out weekly, along with new clients to connect, as well as clients to disconnect who don’t wish to renew. Plus there are always clients who want their email addresses changed. Then there are clients that want additional services who expect to be have their wishes attended to, via say a client who is in one of my Sectional Times services may now want to join another service as well.

The only website aspect that is not outsourced is anything to do with my Sectional Times reports. I am wholly and solely responsible for reviewing the videos, the times, the Darwin betting flucs - and compile the finished product on every horse. Then in some cases there are lawyers to pay to look at a story before it goes up on the website. Plus there are always multiple Justracing billboards in use at any one time throughout Queensland and as far south into New South Wales as Grafton. Then there’s Justracing print media advertising like that which is seen in the Sportsman today on the front page of the Melbourne form. They had TAB racing at Gatton yesterday in Queensland. Justracing is a sponsor at that track. Then how would you get to a race meeting to photograph the horses at Gatton, or bring readers an “exclusive” story on the lax security at our thoroughbred enclosures, or to take a drive and write a general racing story? A car might help. They cost money as does everything associated with it.

So how do all these people get paid and how is the advertising and car paid for? Well certainly not out of thin air - and I don’t know anyone who works for nothing, so everyone is entitled to get paid that works around me. I’ve had three main secretaries in 17 years, which is living proof that my staff and/or contractors must like working at Justracing. Whilst it’s no one’s business, one resigned to train racehorses full time, which she still does, the second one resigned due to ill-health and the third one has been with me five or six years and adores her job and she’s wonderful to work with. The company engaged to do my IT work has been the same for over a decade - as has the Accounts people. The website contributors who write for me have no set topics to write on. I have no say whatsoever in what they contribute so they are free to write on any topic they wish, providing of course it’s not defamatory. So my people stick with me because they obviously get looked after - as without good people around me I wouldn’t even have a business.

The simple facts and realities are that numerically I’m Australia’s largest racing website owner and I’ve been fortunate enough to gain experience across all facets of racing in my lifetime what with having owned winners across all codes, been a trainer, been Manager of a successful race club, as well as a racecaller and a bookies clerk.

I sell tips and racing services because many people don’t have time to study form in the busy world in which we live, so they may prefer to have one bet on a Saturday like say You’ll Never last Saturday (above) and if they bet a level stake and the next five or 10 tips lose, which I hope they don’t, but it’s no great financial disaster to them, as they are still square. Or they might want to educate themselves about sectional times and since I was the first person in Australia to start issuing commercial reports and educating people about sectional times – well over a decade ago – why wouldn’t I be the logical person to sell reports, which give my no holds barred thoughts on every Saturday race run along the eastern seaboard? One could conclude that I must be reasonably successful at evaluating individual performances, or I’d hardly have clients in six countries today and instead would have gone bankrupt years ago, as after all, how many people except bookmakers, trainers and jockeys, do these website detractors know who have derived an income from racing for the last 17 years?

And there’s also another reason that I sell racing information and that is that I believe there have been numerous rip-offs in racing products over a long period of time, particularly in respect of the pricing of tipping products. So given my long involvement in racing why would I need to earn an income outside of racing? What would these idiotic detractors suggest I’d do instead of selling racing products and services – open a florist shop, even though I know absolutely nothing about flowers. If they had any testicular development they’d open up a website or four in competition, so we can have a fair dinkum go - but both they and I know that they wouldn’t have the testicular development or the ticker to last the distance.

Brisbane Racing Club Track Manager Jim Roberts has advised the website late today that the Doomben track is currently a “good 3 with the rail out 7 metres”. Jim added “the track is in a nearly identical state to what it was in this time last week”.

Luxbet is the valued Justracing website advertiser this Melbourne Spring Carnival and to that end they have terrific first deposit offer to new clients, subject to their terms and conditions plus they also have their big bonus offer happening again tomorrow on the Victoria Derby. For full details click on the banners above.

The apprentice jockey weights for Doomben tomorrow should be:

JOCKEY

WEIGHT

Cassandra Schmidt

54 claims 3kgs

Geoffrey Goold

54 claims 2kgs

Luke Tarrant

50 claims 1.5kgs

Beau Appo

49 claims 3kgs

Rikki Jamieson

50 claims 3kgs

Travis Wolfgram

54 claims 2kgs

Matthew McGuren

55 claims 2kgs

James Orman

52 claims 3kgs

Bridget Grylls

49 claims 3kgs

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au I look at which race to avoid getting involved in at Flemington - and why. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s a story about the author who wrote that Archer in fact didn't win the first Melbourne Cup - a horse called Phoebe did, according to him, plus there's also a harness racing story on that website, showing a 70% drop in prizemoney for a NSW feature race, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at Flemington.

Please be advised that the Melbourne Cup preview of both mine (Justracing) and Matt Nicholls (Melbourneracing) will go up by 6pm Queensland time on Sunday night and that preview will remain the lone website article on those respective websites until Wednesday. So Lindsay Gallagher’s betting ring report from tomorrow will go up on Wednesday on Justracing.

The Postman has kindly sent in his thoughts for tomorrow and they read:

You won't find a better day of racing than tomorrow @ Flemington as it's just a fantastic card from start to finish. On a day when value is certainly in abundance, I'm keen on the chances of Girl in Flight in the Myer. She's currently first emergency & needs a scratching to get a run, but I think she's a great price if she does.

I've long been a fan of this girl and her two runs leading into tomorrow have been excellent. First-up she drew the car park & sat wide the trip to only go under 3 lengths behind Forever Loved. Last start she settled well back in the Tristarc & started to make ground approaching the turn. In the straight, Politeness layed in on Girl in Flight for most of the straight, and as a result, she never really got a clear crack at them. She went over the line not fully tested.

Tomorrow Girl in Flight (if she runs) draws wide again, but will race back in the field anyway. I expect the tempo to be hot with the likes of Sweet Idea, Solicit & a couple of others going forward. Girl In Flight can ease back into the pack & wait for the straight to launch down the middle of the track. She has the ability to be right there in the finish and she showed last prep to be well up to the likes of May's Dream, which is nearly a quarter of her price tomorrow.

Luxbet currently has Girl in Flight @ $21 which I think is a very good price. I have her marked @ $15. She's a great each way play in my opinion if she secures a start.

If Girl in Flight misses out on running tomorrow, I do think that Hampton Court is one of the favourites that will salute. I think he's close to a good thing in the Derby.

Flemington 8-17 Girl in Flight.

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