WARWICK FARM

 

SATURDAY 23 DECEMBER

TRACK:                        GOOD 4                       RAIL:    TRUE

 

 

 

 

BEST BET:        Race 1             No.2     CHARGE

NEXT BET:       Race 2             No.1     SPARKY LAD

 

Race 1

2 –1 – 5 – 8

I think this looks a perfect race for my best of the day CHARGE who showed good ability on debut in running third. He was all over the shop and looked as though the run would bring him on and with a perfect barrier here he can stalk the speed and I think go bang on straightening. Akkadian is up from Melbourne and must be respected especially with the increase to 1200m which I think he will enjoy far more than his two runs at 1000m. Condemned has good speed and may well lead or be handy and be amongst the mix but its 1200m on debut which is my little concern.

 

 

Race 2

1 – 3 – 5 – 2

SPARKY LAD was flatted winning last start as the second horse Heliosphere was forced to do plenty of work and be ridden upside down but that said I believe that race is far superior form to the others coming in here. From gate one he can stalk the leaders and with the extra furlong he will get his chance to run over them here. Scream Park broke his maiden last start albeit on a heavy track against weaker opponents but he is likely to be in a perfect spot and give a good sight. Choice Harvest will lead and give a good kick and isn’t without a chance of holding them off.

 

 

Race 3

4 – 6 – 1 – 2

King Darci was strong last start holding them at bay when winning and in doing so beat a few of his opponents he meets again here that include Bastia, CELLARMAN and Invicta.  King Darci will carry 3kg more while Bastia goes up 1kgand Cellarman a ½ kilo with Invicta going down a ½ kilo. Cellarman got a mile back and never stopped chasing and from a good gate here with Shinn in the saddle I expect him to settle a little closer with that being the difference. Bastia was 23 days between runs last start and now being third up should be cherry ripe. Kind Darci even with the weigh turnaround will give plenty of cheek up front.

 

 

Race 4

1 – 2 – 3 – 7

ROSEITO did a good job winning last start at Canterbury and from barrier one here she looks the one to get through again. She is a progressive mare who knows where the line is winning three of her seven starts. Mate Story is a tough handy galloper who will settle on-pace and find when required making it hard to get past him. He comes through some handy form races with the only worry is he’s 52 days between runs albeit he’s had a recent barrier trial. Volpe needs a little luck from the awkward gate but he is racing in terrific form for a race like this.

 

 

Race 5

1 – 5 – 4 – 3

Chris Waller trains six of the ten runners here and it happens too often when the unfancied ones beat the more fancied. I’m siding with CARZOFF marginally who I thought was terrific last start behind Gambler’s Blues and even with top weight if he gets the luck from barrier one he’ll be in the spoils. Mornington has now raced three times in Australia and a win doesn’t look far away with three consistent runs. Lead Choreographer only needs to settle and do things right and he has well and truly enough ability to be winning this race. Great Glen has found a new lease of life being ridden on-pace so he deserves respect again.

 

 

Race 6

1 – 7 – 9 – 3

TEST THE WORLD is a promising mare that has returned in great order with two very good runs including a last start win. From gate one she will likely get the tag on the back of Il Mio Destino and be hard to hold out in the run home. Sugar Bella was a late scratching last weekend after throwing Kerrin McEvoy on the way to the gates. Three weeks ago she resumed from 16 months off the scene and was ultra impressive in winning at Canterbury. This is a tougher assignment but with a 6 ½ kg pull off the top weight she will be in the spoils. Bratislava could not have done any more first up when winning at Canterbury in good fashion lumping 61.5kg. James Cummings has given him three weeks to get over that run and he turns up in good order and from a good barrier will get his chance to continue on his winning way.

 

 

Race 7

8 – 5 – 1 – 6

Keen to play here backing MORTON’S FORK and Invinzabeel and taking on the favourite Supply And Demand simply on the fact he raced first up at Randwick on October 28 before Flemington on 9 November and then headed to Perth for the group one Railway on 25 November and now four weeks later he turns up here. His class will take him a long way but at the odds and with his travel I think the value is with the other two. Morton’s Fork was good first up behind Invinzabeel when carrying 58kg and now he drops to 53kg and with a recent trial under his belt he should be ready to fire. Invinzabeel drops 3.5kg from that win but too prove it was no fluke he won again and looks well placed to make it three in succession.

 

 

Race 8

7 – 4 – 5 – 11

PIPELINE has turned in two terrific performances this preparation over 1200m and now steps to 1400m which I believe will suit as the tempo should allow him to find a spot on-pace without being hustled early from the wide gate. He has thickened up this time around and he only needs to repeat his latest two runs to be hard to beat here. Man Of Choice comes through the same race in which Drachenfels dropping 3kg and from an ideal gate he must be respected. The little concern he did have over 400 days off the racing scene and sometimes horses can race a little flat. Milwaukee looks the leader and if you put a line through last start on the heavy track he can play a major role here.

 

 

Race 9

3 – 2 – 6 – 5

It’s hard to knock NOIRE who has been very impressive winning both her runs this campaign and in doing so signalled she is ready for the next step up. Again she has drawn ideally and should get a nice run perhaps three back the paint and if the breaks fall her way she can sprint pretty quickly. Pecans has won her past two and looks ready for Saturday grade but that said it is a step up. She will likely lead here and be hard to run down. Medaille is having her races spaced as she seems to react being on the fresh side and it’s been eight weeks since her solid effort winning at Canterbury. James Cummings gave her a barrier trial to keep her up to the mark and I thought she trialled nicely as she kept coming at the line.