01/08/13
On 30/8/12, I publicly placed on this website the first of what was to be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.
The 11 previous articles, which can all be viewed in date order in the relevant Justracing archives at the far bottom of this web page, contained the results of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first 11 months of the new racing season. The results that have emanated from the monthly articles have no doubt shocked many industry participants, particularly punters, who formerly may have had no aversion whatsoever to backing horses resuming from a spell. After reading what has gone up here monthly on the topic, over the 12-month timeframe, hopefully the end result will be a far more educated and disciplined punter.
Also noted in each article is 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.
It’s now time to review the July 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States of Australia during that month.
Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.
The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of July 2013 in those three States reads:
DATE
CITY
HORSE
WKS OFF
PLACE
PRICE
TRAINER
6/7
B-S6
PETA PUMPKINEATER
13
14
$31
Lawlor
FACE OFF
39
6
$16
Heathcote
STYLE
28
7
$4.60
Allard
SHAFEEQ
17
4
$18
Forster
S-S7
KIROV
16
4
$15
Martin
REMOS
14
6
$151
Graham
PRAECIDO
20
9
$17
Payne
KENNY’S WORLD
60
8
$61
G. Murray
MY DESTINY
77
3
$14
Berry
WHITLAM
18
5
$3.30
Lees
FLYING EXPRESS
60
14
$21
Pride
SUSSURO
22
8
$26
Messara
GENERAL’S SNIPER
19
10
$61
Bartley
M-G3
CHASSE
21
6
$26
Snowden
13/7
B-S6
ALL THAT
27
3
$7.50
Stevens
NOISY OCEAN
21
6
$21
Guy
REGULAR
17
2
$13
Guy
CALIENTE
26
9
$11
Hill
FUSIL DE EVE
18
15
$41
McLachlan
SNOWTOP
14
8
$61
Meagher
S-S6
MISS TWIN PEAKS
14
7
$18
Baker
SNITZEL’S JEWEL
21
1
$8.50
Ryan
BUTTONS
25
9
$6.50
Messara
ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ
22
8
$19
Nickson
ABITOFADO
62
13
$201
Gentle
MAGIC WEEKEND
20
9
$41
Hawkes
ALLABOUT GLORY
41
12
$17
Austin
M-D5
REGIMENTAL PRIDE
17
5
$20
Brown
CHANGE OF HONOUR
26
10
$11
Price
MOUNT ZERO
17
6
$7.50
Hayes
KUKLA
30
9
$7
Moody
SENSATIONAL REPORT
19
7
$41
Wynne
STANZOUT
32
4
$91
Davies
HAPPY GALAXY
22
6
$3.70
Hawkes
MRS ONASSIS
13
8
$5.50
Ryan
DRUNKEN POET
19
13
$101
Smerdon
LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT
23
13
$15
Ellerton
20/7
B-H9
BALLYBIT
14
7
$8
Heathcote
DIVINE CITY
21
2
$2
Taylor
NOVEMBER GREY
31
9
$31
Brosnan
GREY ASSIGNMENT
35
6
$15
Wood
CRAIGLEA FALCON
13
2
$17
Fleming
S-S6
WARCRUSHER
23
8
$21
Baker
MACDOOM
18
7
$151
McGregor
SEGUE
17
9
$16
Snowden
TURNLEY
17
3
$6.50
C. Conners
SAILOR’S FAREWELL
20
7
$51
Berry
KIM WARRIOR
56
9
$51
B. Cummings
SAN ZIAM
16
5
$51
Bartley
WASZ
56
6
$10
Waller
ATOMIC FORCE
14
8
$15
Smith
CHOICE WORDS
16
10
$4.40
Vandyke
M-H8
SINHALA
13
6
$16
Laing
YULEBA
15
13
$18
Cox
DAYLIGHT SECOND
69
5
$7.50
Carey
CANNES DESTINATION
24
10
$9.50
Gower
SARI
18
5
$3
Snowden
APPOINT
12
8
$26
Hasan
CHEVIOT BEACH
39
11
$61
Blackiston
CANALI
14
6
$13
Brown
27/7
B-D5
TERONADO
23
6
$19
Hill
VOODOO BLUE MAGIC
17
1
$8.50
Ross
BILLY AUCASH
38
5
$26
B. Smith
MUKADDAMAH SON
12
3
$7
Duncan
REILLY BLUE
34
11
$41
Clarke
QFIGHTER
12
8
$17
Dunn
SPECIAL LIE
19
3
$21
Lakey
S-S6
WINDSWEPT
54
5
$3.90
Ryan
TOTAL ATTRACTION
19
3
$3.30
Vandyke
HAVANA REY
15
11
$10
Baker
SAINTHOOD
34
4
$31
Worthington
MARDEN
19
3
$41
Waller
PUNCH YOUR WEIGHT
24
4
$71
McInerney
M-D5
LADYS ANGEL
15
5
$13
O’Brien
MISS BINDI
13
7
$31
Alderson
SHE GOES TO RIO
38
10
$14
Weir
JIGGLE IT
19
8
$41
Roberts
LAUNAY
17
3
$6
Snowden
During July 2013 another 78 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 78 horses only 2 (2.56%) won, meaning that in the 12 months of the 2012/2013 racing season, a total of 1609 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races and of those 1609 horses only 148.5 have won, which means just 9.22% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the full racing season from 1 August 2012 to 31 July 2013 – meaning conversely an amazing 90.78% lost.
If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $1609 and they’d get back just $1098.21, so they’d lose 31.75% of their stake. To set the record straight, two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess ($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16). In May 2013 a 60/1 winner – Primitive Man in Melbourne on 11/5/13 – gave the figures a big boost. Neither of the two winners in July 2013 was a roughie.
Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 130 horses in that category in the full racing season, so a punter would obviously outlay $130 and the return would have been $112.01, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 13.84%. In the month of July 2013, none of the six horses resuming that started at $4 or under won.
In the full racing season, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell in Saturday city class that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.
In the full racing season, the best training performance was undoubtedly by Brisbane’s Kelso Wood, as he trained Benny’s Buttons to win on 11/5/13 after 97 weeks off. The next best effort in the racing season was by another Brisbane based trainer, Kelly Schweida, who trained Cape Kidnappers to win on Ipswich Cup day (15/6/13) after 61 weeks off. Next was Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington on 22/12/12 after 59 weeks off. The fourth best effort in the racing season was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other three trainers who trained a Saturday city winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12, Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off and Liam Birchley who trained Emmalene to win after 40 weeks off at Eagle Farm on 30/3/13.
In Brisbane only 32 of 380 first-up horses have won in the full racing season, which means 8.42% have won – and conversely 91.58% have been beaten.
In Sydney 50 of 549 horses resuming to the end of July 2013 have won, which means 9.10% have won – and conversely 90.90% have been beaten.
In Melbourne 51.5 horses (includes Puissance De Lune’s dead-heat half a win from March 2013) from the 629 that have resumed in the full racing season have won, meaning an abysmal 8.18% have won, or conversely 91.82% have been beaten.
In the 2012/2013 racing season, the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 16/3/13 at Warwick Farm in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes where 10 horses resumed – Hay List, Temple Of Boom, Atomic Force, Decision Time, Tiger Tees, Second Effort, Howmuchdoyouloveme, Fire Thunderbolt, Snitzerland and Single Style – and Snitzerland won the race as the $3.30 favourite.
In the 2012/2013 racing season, the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.
So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as in the 2012/2013 racing season, 18 of the 148.5 winners (12.12%) started at odds-on, so 18 horses weren’t even betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor. As a matter of interest, no horses resumed at an odds-on quote during July 2013. The shortest priced horse to resume anywhere along the eastern seaboard during July 2013 was Divine City in Brisbane on 20/7/13 and that galloper got rolled at even money in a four-horse field on a heavy track.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the popular “What’s In A Name” article from last Saturday’s meetings. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story on Amanda Turnbull sitting on 187 season winners after last night’s Bathurst meeting as she tries to get to the magical 200 mark before the harness racing season ends at the end of August, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls names future Group 1 winners in the Melbourne Spring Carnival.