This weekend sees the changeover with all the A grade horses gone and the B Graders get their chance to step up and spend some time in the sun.
If ever there was a weekend to take the missus away its this weekend as the poor old punters have finally been put out of their misery from a horrible Randwick track but they rock up this weekend to see they have to bet at Eagle Farm which is reported to be worse than a ploughed paddock. It is amazing that in 2 of the major racing centres the number 1 track is in such poor condition in my opinion and maybe they both should like at what a great job was done on the Newcastle track renovation. Hawkesbury is also a grave yard with both horses and jockeys unsure how to handle it and down south we have to put up with Caulfield with the rail out 12 metres.
Given the role of this article is to find punters a winner I think the best option will be to stick to the Newcastle Track. It’s the best surface in the land and I have found a race where the favourite is possibly suspect.
Newcastle Race 6: Speed Slow- suits on speed horses or just off with early momentum. A race full of apprentice riders so speed could be much more genuine than it first seems:
| Horse | Settles | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Explosive Scene | Worse Than Midfield | Current Price is $13. With the claim for Chloe Baker it’s well in. A very consistent horse – he is not the worse but his get back style is not ideal. |
| Pacific Reign | Led | Current Price is $5.50. He is going ok the apprentice here- but I can’t seem to catch him. In terms of the horse his run 2 back was amazing when nothing went right. He does look the leader here and will be hard to run down. |
| Exitozo | Back | Current Price is $4.50. I’ve got him going back but concede he does have the speed to be on pace. Has never won a race when in a slowly run race and I’m taking him on as I believe he is taking up way too much of the market. |
| Reinforced | Midfield | Current Price is $2.80. Forget the last run when never on the track and when not suited to be wide. The current $2.80 looks very juicy. He gets M Bell on who rides well in the provincials and the only knock I have is barrier one isn’t ideal as he doesn’t look the most genuine horse. He is the one they have to beat all the same. |
| Back to Jacko | On pace | Current Price is $9. Jeff Penza and Andrew Gibbons are the two best and most consistent riders in the provincials and the Penza booking along with blinkers back on and a more positive ride has this right in the finish. |
| Collateral | Back | Current Price is $8.50. Ex Qld horse now with Bjorn Baker. Bjorn has been a bit quite but he will be keen to get a result first up. Ran 2 decent trials and this will be the weakest race its contested in quite some time. Not completely out of it especially fresh but happy to take it on. |
| Spinning Gold | Worse Than Midfield | Current Price is $13. In a good yard with Damian Lane but this looks outclassed 2nd up. |
| Nick On the Run | Back | Current Price is $13. Gets the gun Rachael Murray on board but this thing is a tease- too inconsistent for mine and getting back wont suit. |
| Labrooke | Back | Current Price is $17. Gets a promising young apprentice in Louise Day claiming 4kg and the horse won’t know itself- however this needs further and couldn’t win. |
In Summary, the race has only Back to Jacko, Pacific Reign, Reinforced as the main chances.
At the current prices, I’d back to good senior jockeys and have 3 units on Pacific Reign back on his home track and 5 units on Reinforced. At the price, I’d also spend another unit and save on Back to Jacko which break us square if he lobs.
Last Week for the second week in a row we got nutted in a photo finish so no joy as an inch faster and we would have won 14 units.
The profit is back to $2775 for these Friday night previews and whilst we are spending 9 units I’m confident this weekend we will get a collect.
Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners
Good Luck and happy punting!!