Obviously with only 10 days to go to the Magic Millions Race day I thought we would have a look through the field at this stage a fair way out and see if we can narrow the field down and find some value.
Long time clients of Professional Punting will know that it’s a race that we have done very well with in the past with us picking 5 of the last 8 winners including Phelan Ready
With not much in the way of serious racing for the next few weeks Magic Millions obviously holds centre stage and whilst there is no doubt as a rule the race is never much good we from time to time do unearth a decent 2yr old that actually trains on and does something a) as a 3yr old and b) more importantly as an older horse
Picking two year old winners is one of the easier things to do in horse racing as if they are in a good camp then they generally run fairly true to form. Obviously some trainers are better than others and generally speaking its often the bigger stables that perform well in the race- largely because they buy more horses and are prepared to “risk it for the biscuit “ as the saying goes as they know they have plenty of horses they are less concerned about breaking them down versus Billy Bob down the road with 5 horses in work- as in most instances he can’t afford to push his horses as if they break down then generally he is the one that will have to fork out for a new one.
In my mind the race doesn’t do a lot of favours to the industry being so early as there is no doubt that over 50% of the field doesn’t train on and that’s largely because they have been smashed early on in order to make the race. Obviously, there is a big carrot to do so- but only the top 2 enjoy the spoils and if you don’t finish top 2 then the risk and reward certainly don’t measure up and history would suggest the race is a grave yard for most horses.
At first look though the race is looking fantastic and possibly the strongest edition of the race since Mimi Lebrock beat Husson Lightning with Royal Ascher 3rd.
This year each entrant has to pay $13,750 which I find is pretty steep considering just about every horse sold last year owners were forced to pay $4950 to nominate for the race. The top 5 across the line earn decent money with 5th earning $50k but if you don’t run fifth it will cost you $3750 as they only pay $10k from 6th to 16th.
Horse | Settles | Comment |
From Within | Speedy Squib? | Currently trading $4.80 to $5.50. Whilst we only saw her once I’m staggered she is Magic Millions favourite. She looks a genuine 1000m to 1100m horse and after getting all favours Saturday I thought she was very common and whilst Schofield is a decent enough jockey on his day I hated how he wanted to throttle her down. It’s hard to assess off a leader biased track but on first look more than happy to pot her and look around for others as to my eye she looks a 1000m to 1100m squib. If this was trained Barry Bogan no way would it be this price. Interesting the half brother was thought of as a slipper horse (CRUDEN BAY) before it got a virus and then was never the same. Her other half brother also had more wraps the presents at Christmas time but has been proven to be a 1000m squib. Perhaps hereditary? Whilst it won’t have to be a star to win the race- nothing in the first 2 generations have won a Group Race. Hasn’t been in a fast run race yet either. |
Khan | Gets back | Currently $7. Interestingly the bookies who have the worst reputation for odds and service- aka blood sucking scum- are the only ones offering prices for this and it’s been well documented the horse is not heading to the race but that hasn’t stopped them trying to rip people off. If only Punters had a united voice or even surely this is case where Stewards could step in- its plain robbery. |
Invincible Star | On speed | Currently $5.50 to $7.50. Raced and beat Madeenaty at her first ever start down the straight (it was from Sydney and this is easier for them to do this especially after it found the outside rail where Medeenaty found the slow inside rail). The figures it ran that day where ok without being great (compared well to the 3yr olds) but not really against the open age horses. Since then has spelled (not for long) and trialled like it is reincarnate of Black Caviar in two awesome trials. They have been only over 735m and 845 and the win was only 1000m. Therefore, it has to go to a whole new pain barrier to run and win at 1200m but off the trials I want her on my side. Pedigree suggests 1200m will be no problem but it’s hardly a good platform with 2 short course trials only. If she trials again at 1045 or so then I’d have her close to on top but if she doesn’t willing to say she will be more a place rather than winning chance due to the poor platform (platform in racing is everything !!). |
Madeenaty | On speed | Currently Trading at $6 to $7. Her debut performance was seriously Black Caviar level and breath taking. It was only 1000m so that doesn’t really count. Her next start willing to forgive as she drew the inside and the worst part of the track when behind Invincible Gem. She has since won the Magic Millions Wyong race which is a good platform. If I have a knock it’s her last 200m in all her runs have been common so the 1200m will be risky for her. Without that amazing first up run I’m happy to pot her but it was that good she has to be respected. Also, hasn’t been in a fast run race yet which is a knock. |
Ours To Keep | Can lead or sit off them | Currently $7 to $8.50. Surely this deserves to be favourite. Its 3 races it has run in have all been faster early and in better overall time than anything else nominated for the race and he still is undefeated. If Munce can hold him together there is no doubt he will be favourite and at least half the current price. Saturday saw him run quicker than the older mares as well so he ticks every box (well done to the genius and his mates who didn’t pay Chris Munce for the horse- worst decision of their life). |
Houtzen | Lead | Currently trades at $8 to $10. Will be attempting to win it 2nd up and that is hard to do. Whilst it was on an average day this race huge figures on debut and it was much faster than the Class 3 both early and late. It was a fast tempo race so it will be a great set up to say it will handle its Grand final. It only was 1050m and for that reason I have it only marginally behind Ours To Keep. But it’s well worth remembering 1000m form is only helpful for 1000m races only. |
Cao Cao | Gets back | Currently trades at $11. Surprise surprise the horse is in the paddock which every man and his dog knows about and these bookies are still taking bets on it. On what it did on debut the price is missing a zero. |
Dinnigan | Midfield | Currently trades at $10 to $11. Possibly a genuine winning chance but was given a poor platform going into the Wyong race and just missed. Possibly the best horse in the race- but more hope of seeing Donald Trump’s hair come to life than this is of getting in the field and as a result poison odds.
|
Illumicon | Midfield | Currently trades at $11. Still unraced but trialled great in South Australia. Not nominated this weekend and hence you would need a 1000/1 to just make the field. |
Single Bullet | Gets back | Currently trades at $8 to $15. Couldn’t possibly win and as it stands is not in the race. Nominated in a weak race at Warwick Farm this weekend and would have to run top 2 to make the field. It’s a strong get back run on horse which is not ideal for the Gold Coast track but genuine place chance if it gets a run. The $15 Luxbet looks good especially as he looks like he can run top 2 this weekend. |
Chauffeur | Gets back | Currently trades at $15 to $17. On its exposed form it wouldn’t beat a 3-legged horse of any ability but they have been slowly run races and totally against. It gives me the impression its desperate for 1400m and further but these types can jump out of the ground just because they are strong horses and we know it will get a fast to suicide like tempo up front here and with experience it could be the knock out horse. |
Champagne Cuddles | midfield | Currently trades at $17. Won a rubbish race on debut but did it well- hasn’t trialled so can’t see it heading to the race hence you couldn’t bet counterfeit money on her. |
Poetic Charmer | Midfield | Currently $21. Trialled ok but won’t make the field. |
Champ Elect | On speed | Currently trading at $17 to $21. This won’t beat the stablemate let alone the rest of them. Good luck to them they have a Listed winning filly so she is worth a packet but she is no hope in this and price way too short. |
Showtime | Get back | Currently trading at $26. Won’t make the field – pass. |
River Flyer | Unraced | Currently trading at $26. No. Hasn’t even officially trialled. |
Goodfella | Gets back or midfield | Currently trading at $17. Bjorn has done the right thing as he knows this is limited so is running it in everything. Its only hope is the leaders collapse and he might run 5th but he has no hope of winning unless he gets some help. Ideally a new set of lungs and some faster legs. |
Falconic | Gets back | Currently trading at $15 to $17. With one of racings Mr Good guys and again good on them for getting a runner. its easier said than done- but this one wouldn’t win with a head start of 200m. |
Cellargirl | Back | Currently trading at $26. Fluked an early season race and the Ambulance could hit this- it’s no hope. |
Bring It Home Pop | On speed | Currently trading at $26 to $34. Good on them for having a runner but it’s no hope to run top 5.
|
Despatch | Midfield | Currently trading at $51. I don’t mind him long term but he was well held last time. The price is ok but not for me in this. |
Madame Moustache | Midfield | Currently trading at $26 to $51. Had every chance at Wyong and not good enough and is running for 5th at best. |
Real Princess | Back | Currently trading at $51 to $81. Might be an ok 3yr old but needs more strength- wasting their money running here. |
Colosimo | Last | Currently trading at $26 to $51. Had every chance to run on New Year’s Eve and couldn’t. This will be much harder- if you can get $40 /1 a place on the day like I suspect then it might be worth a peanut but really it should be in the paddock. |
She’s Our Star | Gets back | Currently trading at $26 to $101.She was not a bad looking yearling and I think has scope but this is way too soon for her |
Saxton Rock | Gets back | Currently trading at $51 to $101. Needs a head start to run top 5. |
Arrestar |
| Currently trading at $101 to $301. The $301 is her price but looks like getting a run – so will be another road block for the favourites to navigate. |
Bold Kingston | Midfield | Currently trading at $101. Should be $1000/1 – whilst its 20th in Order of Entry it’s no good and should be in the paddock. |
Tiara Star
|
| Currently trading at $41 to $101. She is the best roughie in the race but unfortunately won’t make the field. |
In summary, it’s a race that looks fairly limited with chances and it has 2 clear standout picks in Ours To Keep and Houtzen – I have them on top by a clear 3 lengths from the rest. The next level of chances are Madeenaty, Chauffeur and Invincible Star. At this stage I think the best roughie is Chauffeur but he is only a minor player and would need the top 2 to get bad luck to be any hope.
If you like a pre-post double then whilst he is only $1.80 Winning Rupert’s price is now looking 3 or 4 turns of overs and you can double them up for a nice return.
Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.
If you are having a Pre Post bet good luck and happy punting!!