28/04/16
The Ubet Super Six Trainers race days start on 14 May with the BTC Cup meeting at Doomben, meaning that’s only three Saturdays away, so I’d best get cracking and start getting research done to see how some of the Queensland trainers are faring in the calendar year-to-date, to see if any of these high profile trainers would be any chance of winning such a series that is based on a points system on 40-odd black type races over the Brisbane Winter Carnival.
Last week I looked at the 2016 first quarter Saturday city results for Brisbane based trainer Rob Heathcote. You may recall he’d been successful with only seven of his 71 starters, meaning 9.86% of stable runners won, or conversely that 90.14% of stable runners lost.
If a punter had a $1 win on all Heathcote Saturday city stable runners in that timeframe, a punter would obviously outlay $71 and the return, based on official starting price, was $36.95 so the punter would lose $34.05, or 47.96% of their stake.
Today I review the performance of stable runners from the current Brisbane premiership winning trainer – Tony Gollan. To that end here’s the list of all runners from his stable for all Saturday city meetings conducted from 1/1/16 to 31/3/16 along with their placing and their official starting price:
DATE/MEETING
HORSE
PLACING
PRICE
26/3/16 – Doomben
Trakstar
2nd
$8.50
Notonyourlife
9th
$15
Vienna Royale
7th
$7
19/3/16 – Doomben
Lord Coconuts
5th
$6
Bentles
10th
$6
The Storeman
8th
$8
Satirical Lass
10th
$4.20
Amexed
6th
$41
High Esteem
8th
$21
Heart Of A Warrior
2nd
$3.80
Jetsonic
5th
$7.50
12/3/16 – Gold Coast
Red Handle
5th
$3.10
Social Conquest
7th
$6
Pantalettes
13th
$11
Max It Out
14th
$6.50
Frilly Curtain
8th
$11
Notonyourlife
12th
$4.80
Casual Choice
1st
$9
Whiskey Allround
9th
$4.20
5/3/16 – Doomben
Bentles
5th
$7
Kraftwerk
2nd
$2.70
Dead Set Jet
9th
$15
Heart Of A Warrior
1st
$4.60
Flight Academy
6th
$12
Vienna Royale
8th
$6
27/2/16 – Doomben
Red Handle
3rd
$5.50
Casual Choice
1st
$7.50
The Storeman
3rd
$6
Satirical Lass
5th
$2.50
Someday
7th
$3.60
Trakstar
4th
$10
High Esteem
5th
$31
Max It Out
4th
$16
The Umbrella Man
3rd
$12
20/2/16 – Doomben
Heart Of A Warrior
1st
$4.40
Flight Academy
4th
$15
Sheiswhatsheis
6th
$2.20
Dee Nine Elle
4th
$6
Bernitchy
7th
$9
Pantalettes
11th
$8
Kraftwerk
1st
$6
Bentles
9th
$16
13/02/16 – Doomben
Trakstar
4th
$9.50
Red Handle
2nd
$4.60
Vienna Royale
8th
$3.10
Max It Out
8th
$8.50
Whiskey Allround
1st
$3.60
Someday
4th
$9.50
The Storeman
7th
$16
The Umbrella Man
6th
$9
Bourbon Road
12th
$11
6/2/16 – Doomben
Majella Magic
11th
$31
Kraftwerk
1st
$2.70
High Esteem
7th
$26
Heart Of A Warrior
3rd
$5
Bernitchy
14th
$12
Zindzela
15th
$12
30/1/16 – Doomben
Vienna Royale
2nd
$3.70
Pienkna
7th
$3.80
Whiskey Allround
2nd
$4.60
Someday
4th
$10
The Storeman
7th
$6.50
Most Important
2nd
$4.40
23/1/16 – Doomben
Zindzela
6th
$4.60
Trakstar
7th
$11
Tina Melina
1st
$4.80
Sheiswhatsheis
2nd
$6
Snake Charmer
13th
$15
Heart Of A Warrior
2nd
$5
16/1/16 – Caloundra
Pienkna
2nd
$4.40
Whiskey Allround
2nd
$8
Kraftwerk
3rd
$9
High Esteem
15th
$9
My Girl Hayley
9th
$8
9/1/16 – Gold Coast
Giuliani
4th
$31
Bourbon Road
10th
$31
Mr Jetset
13th
$61
Tina Melina
3rd
$10
Traveston Girl
7th
$17
Trakstar
13th
$31
Fontelina
15th
$15
Most Important
6th
$14
Zeladys Night Out
9th
$4
Just Orm
16th
$61
Temple of Boom
4th
$10
The Storeman
5th
$41
Didntcostalot
6th
$3.90
2/1/16 – Caloundra
Just Orm
1st
$2.20
Brave Ali
6th
$51
Amexed
9th
$26
So in the first quarter of the 2016 calendar year, Tony Gollan had 90 runners represent his stable in Saturday city company races. Of those 90 starters only nine won, or 10.00% of all runners, which conversely meant 90.00% of all Gollan stable runners lost.
If a punter had $1 a win on all Gollan stable runners they’d obviously outlay $90 and the return would be $44.80 or 49.00% of the outlay, so conversely a punter would lose 51.00% of their stake by blindly backing all Saturday city Gollan stable runners. Please note I have only included South-East Queensland Saturday city starters in the above table, but the Tony Gollan stable also had one interstate Saturday city runner in this timeframe – Zelady’s Night Out – which ran sixth at Randwick on 5/3/16.
So I’ve done up a table below of the two Brisbane trainers that some consider to be the “top trainers” in South-East Queensland and I’d think most people would be amazed at how few winners “top trainers” actually win with over an extended period like say the three months of this exercise.
So the table of comparison between 1/1/16 and 31/1/16 inclusive (Saturday city meetings) on the two trainers that lead the Brisbane premiership table shows:
TRAINER
WINNERS-TO-RUNNERS (%)
PUNTING OUTLAY/RETURN/PROFIT OR LOSS
T. Gollan
9 of 90 (10.00%)
$90 – $44.80 – Loss 51.00% of stake
R. Heathcote
7 of 71 (9.86%)
$71-$36.95 – Loss 47.96% of stake
So there you have the statistical facts of the two trainers at the top of the Brisbane trainer’s premiership. I’ll let you work out whether you want to be putting your money on either trainer in the Ubet Super Six Trainer Series.
In respect of yesterday’s quiz question as to how many Saturday city winners trainers Matthew Dunn and Brian Smith trained cumulatively between 1/1/16 and 31/3/16 inclusive, the answer is “one”. Dunn trained the roughie Quatronic to win at Doomben on 20/2/16 at 16/1 and that was the sole winner that the duo trained to win a Saturday city race in that timeframe. I put up odds of 150/1 on that event happening, totally as a red herring, as most people wouldn’t think that “one” could possibly be the correct answer, given both could be deemed “high profile trainers” that attract plenty of media attention. Both Dunn and Smith were written up as recently as last Saturday, in Queensland’s sole statewide newspaper The Courier Mail. On the same day Smith was interviewed on RadioTAB. In that newspaper on that day, you may recall Dunn was advised as being “the hottest trainer in the country (“country” meaning Australia not the bush) and he was also noted as being “in white-hot form”, so my advice is be very careful when reading that sort of statement as it will take country and provincial statistics into account and they are not remotely as noteworthy as Saturday city statistics. As a matter of interest, Brian Smith trained no Saturday city winners at all in the period 1/1/16 to 31/3/16 and in fact in that timeframe he only trained two third placegetters (Lock’s Legend at Doomben on 19/3/16 and Sony Legend at Doomben on 26/3/16).
So in conclusion, punters now may have a greater appreciation that they need to look at “Saturday city statistics of trainers before betting in Saturday city races”, as the amount of media coverage many trainers receive, is seemingly not commensurate with the success they have out on the racetrack of dreams. Being a “Group 1 premiership winning trainer” like Gollan, or an “international Group 1 winning trainer” like Heathcote, or a “Group 1 winning trainer” like Smith, or “the hottest trainer in the country” like Dunn, doesn’t mean for one moment they are training Saturday city winners. I often write here suggesting that readers should change channels or radio stations when trainers are interviewed about their horse or horses’ chances on racing radio or television and that has been proven to be highly accurate as always. Their horses get beaten about 90% of the time anyway in Saturday city races, irrespective of how they talk their chances up.
Next week I review the first quarter Saturday city results of two more high profile Brisbane based trainers, namely Liam Birchley and Kelly Schweida to see how they have gone in that timeframe.
And today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the story on where Anzac Day Flemington winner Supido is possibly headed – and the name of the $3,300 service fee stallion that had a trifecta in a TAB race the other day is advised.