18/05/16
Of all the 649 variables in thoroughbred racing, there is generally one aspect that will forever stand the test of time – and that is the “class” factor of the racehorse.
Punters often spend hours assessing form, then generally lose their money anyway, because they habitually break a whole array of rules. As discussed numerous times on the website – and as recently as yesterday – trying to work out when an unbeaten horse will get rolled is just a mugs game, as is backing odds-on horses and so on and so forth.
But whether it is in human life, or in a thoroughbred race out on the racetrack of dreams, “all things being equal, cream will generally come to the top”.
It’s a fact of life that Makybe Diva could win three Melbourne Cups, Super Impose could win four Randwick mile races, Might And Power could lead all the way to win a Melbourne Cup. You can’t beat “class,” whether it’s a football team, a swimmer, a racehorse or a human.
So what’s the best and quickest way to see the “class” of a racehorse? Well it’s two-fold. Firstly we can check out what previous black type wins or placed performances a racehorse has had – and to what level they’ve won or been placed at. Secondly we can look at each horse’s “average prizemoney per start”, which will tell us how much each horse wins on average, every time that he or she goes to the races. One has to be a tad cautious with the second one as incentive prizemoney scheme earnings from QTIS (Queensland), BOBS (New South Wales) and VOBIS (Victoria) can come into the equation, but my advice is not to worry much about incentive scheme earnings, the main ones to avoid in that regard are from “restricted races” which are restricted like say the standalone Magic Millions race day at the Gold Coast, which is restricted only to horses sold at Magic Millions – and ditto Inglis restricted races that occur in New South Wales and Victoria.
The best place to source both those aforesaid pieces of information of firstly the black type win or placed performances and secondly “average prizemoney per start” information quickly and accurately is in each weekend Sportsman.
And to that end, it’s quite amazing how many times the winner can be found from the “three highest average prizemoney earners”. Often no other form study is required – the winner is sitting there looking at you in those three names.
So it’s not ancient history. Let me go back to last Saturday’s Doomben black type races (5 events) and a few from Scone last Saturday and show readers what I mean.
So here are the “three highest average prizemoney earners” per black type race and where they finished:
DOOMBEN
P/M ORDER
HORSE
AV P/M PER START
PLACING
Race 4
1
Real Love
39216
1
2
Opinion
22784
9
3
Sir John Hawkwood
22389
2
Race 5
1
Nikitas
142200
8
2
Winning Rupert
72500
1
3
Candika
67675
6
Race 6
1
Rudy
20083
1 D/H
2
Feltre
17987
6
3
Jumbo Prince
17676
1 D/H
Race 7
1
Japonisme
82776
3
2
Fell Swoop
75083
5
3
Delectation
65979
8
Race 8
1
Cylinder Beach
22664
2
2
I’m Belucci
18200
8
3
Mackintosh
15149
1
SCONE Race 5
1
Spill The Beans
40638
2
2
Kimberley Star
23713
3
3
Serene Majesty
20055
1
SCONE Race 6
1
Clearly Innocent
52896
1
2
River Lad
39538
7
3
Music Magnate
31712
2
SCONE Race 7
1
Danish Twist
36430
1
2
Ammirata
19406
7
3
Peace Force
19093
10
SCONE Race 8
1
Furnaces
54643
5
2
Kuro
23550
6
3
Kaepernick
21129
1
So as you can see from the aforesaid races, the winner of eight of those nine black type races (excluding the Scone Guineas, a $400,600 event – Race 5 – which has no black type status yet), were won by a horse in the “top three average prizemoney per start” earners from their respective race.
Taking it one step further – that simple system jagged first and second in five of the nine reviewed races, or 55.56% of the time. That’s with no form study required at all, or worrying about track bias, perceived or otherwise, what 50-kilo bundle of joy was steering the said grain engorged, half-crazed thoroughbred, or what the “expert” tipsters thought on racing radio or racing television, what the Sky Channel urgers advised the “smart money” was for, two minutes out from the race when the NSW TAB allegedly laid some $50,000 bet at $3 on what I’d call “slower than a wet week in Tully” conveyance, or associated what I’d call “pie in the sky statements” – and so on and so forth.
Like any system connected with gambling, it won’t work every time, but it’s something that every punter could pay more attention to, in the hope of backing an elusive winner.
On www.brisbaneracing.com.au today there’s an interesting story as always.