BACKING HORSES RESUMING FROM A SPELL IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE…. Part 5

17/01/13

On 30/8/12 I publicly placed on this website the first of what will be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.

The four original articles which can be viewed HERE – HERE – HERE and HERE contained the names of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first four calendar months of the new racing season, namely 1/8/12 to 31/8/12 inclusive, 1/9/12 to 30/9/12 inclusive, 1/10/12 to 31/10/12 and 1/11/12 to 30/11/12 inclusive.

Also noted was 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.

It’s now time to review the December 2012 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States.

Please note that in the below text “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.

The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of December 2012 is:

DATE

CITY

HORSE

WKS OFF

PLACE

PRICE

TRAINER

1/12

B-G3

Kilwinning Option

Secret Garden

Peace Talks

Risk Aversion

Fire Up Fifi

Jester’s Girl

Rundle

Holey Gadoley

Discreet

$2.80

$19

$15

$4.80

$4.40

$41

$61

$12

Rowe

P. Nolan Jnr

Webb

Lakey

Heathcote

Ryan

Purdy

Duff

Schweida

S-G3

Hurricane Hemmy

Happy Hussy

Our Design

Youthful Jack

Stratford

Anything

Forster

Lady Be Great

Emperator

Tunes

$12

$6.50

$31

$2.70

$101

$6.50

$91

Ryan

Payne

A. Cummings

Stitt

Hawkes

Sues

Hawkes

Coyle

Robinson

Snowden

M-G3

Macedonian

White Universe

Euryale

Flying Hula

Goldslick

Verdasco

Diplomatic Force

Shock Value

Future Solution

$51

$11

$26

$6.50

$15

$21

$15

$31

Moody

Snowden

Weir

Kent

Mott

Nichols

Hayes

Harris

8/12

B-G3

Avaladyluck

Caliente

Signified

Last Gift

B/bury Chocolate

Jopa

Belltone

G’Day Old Mate

Startsmeup

Captain Clayton

Easy Lager

$21

$15

$6.50

$15

$101

Kendrick

Hill

Wood

Fogarty

Baker

Pritchard

Wood

Squair

Heinrich

Heathcote

Milne

S-G3

Treaty

Madam Nash

Secessio

Zak/thos Imprintz

Riva De Lago

Kirinata

N/ber One Gun

$16

$20

$10

$31

$3.30

$51

$10

Snowden

Waller

Nickson

Waller

Perry

O’Shea

M-G3

Meloria

Royal Zenith

Tariana

Queen’s Ransom

Mawaakib

Catapulted

The Soldier

Undeniably

Hotham Heights

Magic Weekend

Infinite Energy

$101

$7.50

$10

$17

$31

$21

$18

Moody

Lawson

Price

Hayes

Kavanagh

Cozmanis

Kavanagh

Oliver

Hawkes

Moody

15/12

B-G3

Gold Shears

Noogoora Burr

Tuskegee Hawk

Bingo Rose

Miss Imagica

Rosagaze

Aquatorial

Viking Heart

$51

$14

$61

$71

$12

$21

$10

Baldwin

Hansen

Treloar

Consadine

M. Nolan

Mayfi/Smith

Macrae

Schweida

S-G3

Centrepet

Bennetta

She’s Clean

Song And Roses

Song Shan

Havana Rey

Alumbrado

Whitlam

Kimberley Kid

$4.80

$3.10

$51

$31

$11

$51

Ryan

Begg

Waller

Moses

A. Cummings

Baker

Waugh

Lees

Payne

M-D4

Jolie Blonde

Deeming

La Tikka Rosa

Jeteven

Snapparazi

Goldstone

Too Deadly

Big Bear Rock

Hurdy Gurdy Man

Dayita

Urban Explorer

Devils Force

Giresun

Laspiel

Angolaner

Wells

Durnford

$51

$13

$51

$26

$10

$4.40

$41

$31

$16

$10

$51

$12

$21

$31

Riley

Griffiths

Moody

Besanko

Marshman

B. Cummings

Craven

Brown

Weir

Moody

Conlan

Riley

Snowden

Webb

Moody

Durden

Carey

22/12

B-G3

Azzaland

Miss Barwang

I’m Cool

Run With Me

$3.60

$31

$2.25

$13

Stephenson

McLachlan

Forster

Whittington

S-G3

Whitefriars

Hypurr

Skytrain

Slow The Flow

$18

Worthington

Pride

Snowden

Smith

M-G3

Go The Knuckle

Beltrois

Crystalised

Riverina’s Girl

Lucky Eighty Eight

Lone Command

Baron Douro

Pillar of Creation

$2.40

$21

$13

$17

Smerdon

Griffiths

A. Freedman

Burke

Ellerton/Zahra

Hawkes

P.Payne

Ellerton/Zahra

29/12

B-G3

Warrior Girl

Top Of The Rock

Fusil De Eve

Brigadoon Jack

What About Me

Tokamak

Night Chills

$13

$21

$11

$16

$31

Purdy

M. Nolan

McLachlan

Hill

Schweida

Lockwood

Ryan

S-G3

Yulalona

Silk Pins

Bello

High On Believing

Southern Skye

Zedlion

Kaypers

Superior Instinct

War Charm

$17

$6.50

$12

$4.40

$41

$21

$10

$21

$11

Snowden

Waller

Snowden

Waller

Perry

Coyle

Bennett

D. Smith

Williams

M-D4

Good Story

Backbone

Avoid Lightning

Two Hills

Zippa The Rippa

Valedictorian

Chinzia

$11

$3.60

$51

$15

$26

Page

Kent

Jolly

Browell

Hayes

Cox

To show what an exercise in futility it is backing horses resuming, during December 2012 another 130 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 130 horses only 13 won, meaning that in the five months to date of the current racing season, a total of 692 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne and of those 692 horses only 72 have won, which means just 10.40% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012, so conversely an amazing 89.60% lost.

If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $692 and they’d get back just $549.46, so they’d lose 20.59% of their stake. Two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12.

Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 59 horses in that category, season-to-date and the return would have been $54.76, so a punter would break almost square on that method, as the financial loss would only be 7.18%.

In the sampled timeframe, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.

In the sampled timeframe the best training performance was by Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington after 59 weeks off. The second best effort in the racing season to date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other two trainers that have trained a Saturday city class winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks, were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12 and Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off.

In Brisbane only 17 of 155 first up horses have won in the season-to-date which means 10.97% have won – and conversely 89.03% have been beaten.

In Sydney 30 of 191 horses resuming have won which means 15.71% have won – and conversely 84.29% have been beaten.

In Melbourne 25 horses from the 301 that have resumed to the end of November 2012 have won, meaning an abysmal 8.31% have won, or conversely 91.69% have been beaten.

In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 8/9/12 at Flemington in the Bobbie Lewis Quality where nine horses resumed – Mosheen, We’re Gonna Rock, Ahdashim, Scintillo, Smokin’ Joey, Spirit of Boom, Speediness, Blackie and Pago Rock – and We’re Gonna Rock won the race as the $6.50 equal favourite.

In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.

So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as even in the season-to-date, 10 of the 59 winners (16.95%) started at odds-on, so 10 horses weren’t betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor.

I will continue to do a monthly “spelling horses resuming” article for each month of the entire current racing season and give cumulative updated statistics in each article to prove once and for all just how bad backing them is for the hip pocket.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au we look a great historical photo of the long departed champion Queensland stallion Smokey Eyes and that stallion’s interesting connection to the sale topper at the just completed Magic Millions sale. On www.sydneyracing.com.au we pop into John McCarthy’s world and meet his new pacer, as well as getting an update on recent SA Cup winner Smoken Up, then on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at that great race from last Spring – the Caulfield Guineas.

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