BACKING HORSES RESUMING FROM A SPELL IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE…..Part 8

08/05/13

On 30/8/12 I publicly placed on this website the first of what will be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.

As recently as 30/3/13 in Brisbane we saw the long odds-on favourite, The White Hope, run a very lean third when resuming from a relatively short spell of just 18 weeks but he was one of three odds-on favourites that got rolled in Saturday city races during March 2013. In fact 75% of odds-on horses that were resuming in March in Saturday city races went over and they are all named at the end of this article.

The seven original articles which can be viewed in the Justracing archives contained the names of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first seven calendar months of the new racing season, namely 1/8/12 to 31/8/12, 1/9/12 to 30/9/12, 1/10/12 to 31/10/12, 1/11/12 to 30/11/12, 1/12/12 to 31/12/12, 1/1/13 to 31/1/13 and 1/2/13 to 28/2/13 inclusive.

Also noted was 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.

It’s now time to review the March 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States.

Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.

The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of March 2013 in those three States reads:

DATE

CITY

HORSE

WEEKS OFF

PLACING

PRICE

TRAINER

2/3

S-H8

CATKINS

15

1

$10

Waller

 

 

KNIGHT EXEMPLAR

17

4

$3.90

O’Shea

 

 

VILLA SPLENDIDO

19

3

$8.50

Ryan

 

 

WHISKEY ALLROUND

19

2

$8.50

T. Gollan

 

 

CHARLIE BOY

15

3

$5.50

Ryan

 

 

CITATIONS

16

11

$12

Snowden

 

 

SHAHAD

21

9

$31

Waterhouse

 

 

PIERRO

18

1

$1.80

Waterhouse

 

 

IT’S A DUNDEEL

17

4

$17

Baker

 

 

TATRA

15

9

$31

Snowden

 

 

PROISIR

18

3

$6

Waterhouse

 

 

PROVERB

15

5

$41

Snowden

 

 

SOLEMN

18

7

$101

Snowden

 

 

CRAFTY IRNA

16

6

$15

Quinton

 

 

ALIYANA TILDE

22

9

$31

Parker

 

 

FLOOR SHOW

17

8

$31

Walter

 

 

KEITH’S LEGACY

14

10

$4

Vandyke

 

 

ALTERED BOY

31

1

$16

Waller

 

 

TOYDINI

19

5

$8

Walter

 

M-G3

GLOWS

26

3

$7

Snowden

 

 

BOOKLET

24

6

$41

Ellerton

 

 

FORMIDABLE

20

5

$18

Ellerton

 

 

THY

28

5

$15

Moody

 

 

TAVARNELLE

16

1

$12

Hawkes

 

 

FOLDING GEAR

16

5

$16

Hope

 

 

PRIZUM

16

7

$26

Sadler

 

 

READY TO RIP

16

2

$9

Moody

 

 

GENERAL TRUCE

13

6

$15

Maund

 

 

KARUTA QUEEN

49

3

$5.50

Moody

 

 

ISABELLA SNOWFLAKE

14

1

$2.80

Price

 

 

PRACTICED

16

2

$3.20

Hickmott

9/3

B-H8

PRETTY STRONG

22

13

$6

Strong

 

 

DR BARNARD

15

5

$9

Dougall

 

 

HYDE PARK

21

7

$21

Webb

 

 

ONETIMEATBANDCAMP

22

6

$11

Thompson

 

 

ANGUS ROY

28

9

$21

Smith

 

 

MARKOUT

14

11

$71

Richardson

 

 

MARGINS

26

9

$10

Currie

 

 

FLINDERS CITY

24

12

$31

Bougoure

 

S-G3

IN CAHOOTS

17

5

$8

Atkins

 

 

WINDJAMMER

16

4

$14

Baker

 

 

THE OVAL OFFICE

19

9

$51

Simpson/Barnes

 

 

SCANDIVA

20

6

$15

A. Cummings

 

 

ASPEN

14

8

$14

Snowden

 

 

PIRATE BAY

26

5

$20

Lees

 

 

MID SUMMER MUSIC

16

4

$8.50

Moody

 

 

BAGMAN

20

3

$13

O’Shea

 

 

SKYERUSH

16

1

$14

Walter

 

 

RASPBERRIES

16

5

$6

Snowden

 

 

JULIENAS

23

8

$12

Waterhouse

 

 

FAMOUS SEAMUS

17

6

$4.60

May/Smith

 

 

STRIKE THE STARS

16

7

$12

A. Cummings

 

 

SCREAM MACHINE

12

9

$14

Coyle

 

 

MANIGHAR

24

11

$5.50

Moody

 

 

SHOOT OUT

19

1

$4

Waller

 

 

MEIDUNG

16

7

$12

Snowden

 

 

TITLE

26

10

$21

Pride

 

 

SEE THE WORLD

25

7

$15

Pride

 

 

EMOTIONAL CIRCUS

20

4

$4

Lees

 

 

SOCIAL RANK

24

11

$21

Perry

 

 

AEROBATICS

17

8

$10

Snowden

 

 

NEW BEGINNING

16

6

$8

Thompson

 

M-G3

DIVA DEE

17

3

$7

A. Cummings

 

 

LANKAN RUPEE

18

7

$7.50

Price

 

 

SHE’S A FOX

30

3

$3.10

A. Cummings

 

 

AGUEDA

17

8

$17

A. Cummings

 

 

ELECTRIC FUSION

18

9

$51

Smerdon

 

 

DAZZLER

22

6

$18

Snowden

 

 

PUISSANCE DE LUNE

17

1 D/H

$3.50

Weir

 

 

MUTUAL TRUST

40

9

$13

Prit/Gordon

 

 

LA ZUMA

17

6

$81

Moroney

 

 

LUCKYGRAY

13

8

$10

Poletti

 

 

BARAKEY

15

11

$6.50

Taylor

 

 

FONTELINA

17

7

$16

A. Cummings

 

 

SANAGAS

17

7

$61

J. Cummings

 

 

GOLDONI

25

4

$9

Hayes

16/3

GC-D5

ALLTHERIGHTMOVES

17

1

$9

Kelly

 

 

DIET

37

7

$10

White

 

 

DOUBLE IMAGE

27

10

$5

Kelly

 

 

KEEP IT MOIST

13

9

$8

Aitkenhead

 

 

SPIRIT OF FLATLEY

48

12

$9.50

Wood

 

 

LUCKY SONGS

17

8

$41

Morrisey

 

 

TRESSLES

20

13

$16

Guy

 

 

SPLENDORA

21

7

$20

Dunn

 

S-G3

OCTANE FLYER

20

2

$26

Schweida

 

 

LIMES

18

3

$13

Snowden

 

 

HEART TESTA

12

2

$2.70

Waller

 

 

LAMPEDUSA

13

5

$5.50

Moody

 

 

ASSAIL

12

6

$1.85

C. Conners

 

 

TROPICAL FORCE

14

8

$51

Baker

 

 

MISS STELLABELLE

18

8

$9.50

Waterhouse

 

 

SHANNARA

17

7

$21

Snowden

 

 

ARINOSA

18

1

$6

Waller

 

 

DELZERA

24

10

$31

Walter

 

 

HAY LIST

51

4

$4.20

McNair

 

 

TEMPLE OF BOOM

18

7

$17

T. Gollan

 

 

ATOMIC FORCE

24

10

$51

Smith

 

 

DECISION TIME

75

2

$19

C. Conners

 

 

TIGER TEES

18

5

$6

Pride

 

 

SECOND EFFORT

23

12

$71

McDonald

 

 

HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME 

18

3

$10

Karakatsanis

 

 

FIRE THUNDERBOLT

18

6

$15

Takacs

 

 

SNITZERLAND

18

1

$3.30

Ryan

 

 

SINGLE STYLE

27

9

$201

Portelli

 

M-D4

STARS IN THE SKY

19

7

$10

Corstens

 

 

ZOUNITE

36

8

$7

Moody

 

 

FALCENT

21

2

$7

Harrison

 

 

MELTING POT

26

1

$5.50

Ellerton/Zahra

 

 

DEL PALIO

36

3

$15

Alderson

 

 

LIVIGNO

28

10

$4.60

Fliedner

 

 

FELIDEA

18

1

$7

Corstens

 

 

LEGION’S BELLE

21

4

$41

Symons

 

 

SLEEPERS

31

14

$101

Wales

 

 

CHURCHILL DANCER

17

6

$16

Hayes

 

 

KIEVANN

12

12

$21

Portelli

 

 

CHATEAU MARGAUX

20

5

$4.60

Moody

 

 

JET AWAY

31

1

$6

Hayes

 

 

STREAKY FELLA

15

11

$101

Purcell

 

 

ESCADO

19

6

$8

Laurie

 

 

ANUDJAWUN

23

15

$41

Dwyer

 

 

MY BENTLEY

24

10

$71

Logan

 

 

THE BIG STEEL

13

12

$31

Brown

 

 

OREGON SPIRIT

20

1

$13

Moody

 

 

SYSMO

25

2

$4.60

McEvoy

23/3

B-G3

IRON JACKET

15

5

$6

Kendrick

 

 

CHARLIE’S LASS

17

9

$101

Pritchard

 

 

MEMORABLE MOMENT

22

2

$6

Crane

 

 

SEA TRYST

13

5

$9

T. Gollan

 

 

COMAHNI

18

4

$41

Wilson

 

 

VONUSTI

35

10

$31

Jones

 

 

TOPPING

20

8

$15

T. Gollan

 

 

DOUBTFILLY

27

4

$6.50

Kendrick

 

 

QFIGHTER

14

3

$8.50

Dunn

 

 

SEEKING MORE

17

1

$3.80

Wood

 

 

EUREKA DAZZLER

17

11

$21

T. Gollan

 

 

JOINT INIATIVE

19

19

$16

T. Gollan

 

 

MS BA BELLA

15

10

$51

Taylor

 

S-G3

HOT SNITZEL

18

6

$3.70

Ryan

 

 

INSTINCTION

19

4

$16

Messara

 

 

WELKOM GOLD

15

7

$26

D. Smith

 

 

ANISE

16

2

$8.50

Snowden

 

 

VILLA VERDE

19

2

$3.20

Dwyer

 

 

LE ROI

12

3

$6

McEvoy

 

 

HAPPY TRAILS

19

9

$41

Beshara

 

 

RAIN AFFAIR

24

4

$31

Pride

 

 

SOLZHENITSYN

19

3

$51

Heathcote

 

 

MORE JOYOUS

21

2

$4.20

Waterhouse

 

 

SECRET ADMIRER

19

5

$26

Begg

 

 

NEW DAY RISING

31

5

$31

Pfieffer

 

M-G3

PLATELET

25

3

$5.50

Weir

 

 

MISS BINDI

34

5

$17

Alderson

 

 

ELITE ELLE

23

2

$2.70

Vasil

 

 

SHARNEE ROSE

18

1

$5

Ellerton

 

 

GOLD ZERO

18

8

$101

Clark

 

 

SHENZHOU STEEDS

16

4

$12

Moroney

 

 

SABRAGE

20

7

$26

Moroney

 

 

SOPHIE’S SPIRIT

19

9

$21

Hinton

 

 

GARUD

18

3

$5.50

Moroney

 

 

SMOKIN’ JOEY

19

4

$12

Price

 

 

SPEEDINESS

23

7

$17

Scott

 

 

OFFENDERS

19

3

$26

Snowden

 

 

CLUB COMMAND

34

2

$7.50

Moody

 

 

HONEY FLOWER

19

5

$9.50

R. McDonald

 

 

FORTY THIRTY

21

14

$101

C. McDonald

 

 

SOLSAY

19

11

$31

Kent

 

 

WELLS

14

7

$61

Durden

30/3

B-G3

OUR ZIDANE

20

8

$31

Edmonds

 

 

THE WHITE HOPE

18

3

$1.70

Dunn

 

 

TAIL AND ALL

17

2

$16

Heathcote

 

 

BELLANTINA

24

6

$15

Clarke

 

 

FLYING JET

20

5

$5

Schweida

 

 

OFF AND LAUGHING

20

8

$5

Thompson

 

 

MARCULOO

17

2

$21

Ahrens

 

 

I GET AROUND

20

2

$1.95

Perry

 

 

EMMALENE

40

1

$4

Birchley

 

 

TISANI BOY

15

8

$61

Kemp

 

 

PRETTY COMPOSED

24

6

$31

Wakefield

 

 

BOREHOLE

14

2

$26

Lawlor

 

 

HEATER

18

4

$21

Thompson

 

 

TOO MANY REDS

20

11

$11

T. Gollan

 

 

PANE IN THE GLASS

24

6

$21

Thompson

 

 

METALLURGICAL

20

2

$12

Thompson

 

 

THEFT

16

14

$15

T. Gollan

 

 

DALZAR

35

13

$61

Duryea

 

S-G3

AMORINO

28

6

$15

Ryan

 

 

FAUSTUS

50

14

$71

O’Shea

 

 

MADAME FLY

13

13

$101

Davies

 

 

ITAMERI

17

5

$6.50

Snowden

 

 

SEA SIREN

15

8

$6.50

O’Shea

 

 

BEL SPRINTER

20

1

$10

Warren

 

 

PAMPELONNE

21

13

$9

Martin

 

 

CARLTON HOUSE

15

13

$4

Waterhouse

 

 

LAMASERY

25

10

$26

Vandyke

 

 

VOILA ICI

20

18

$26

Moody

 

 

RAINBOW STYLING

54

16

$151

Hawkes

 

 

LIGHTINTHENITE

20

4

$9

O’Shea

 

 

STOUT HEARTED

20

14

$19

Waller

 

 

BEATEN UP

24

9

$19

Waller

 

 

SOFT SAND

21

11

$6

Messara

 

 

ALTAR

20

4

$6

Snowden

 

 

EVER THE SAME

20

7

$21

A. Cummings

 

 

BRIGHTEST

13

12

$101

Walter

 

M-D4

KING DIAMOND

2

4

$18

McLean

 

 

MUIRFIELD

12

5

$8.50

Moroney

 

 

SELF SENSE

12

11

$17

Brideoake

 

 

DOWAGER QUEEN

24

12

$26

Moody

 

 

MURCIELAGA

29

7

$12

Moroney

 

 

AMAETHON

53

2

$17

Ellerton

 

 

STRATCOMBE

17

10

$11

Price

 

 

WINTER KING

14

7

$14

Brown

 

 

AFRICAN PULSE

33

1

$2.50

Moroney

 

 

ESPRIT DE BULLET

13

6

$8

Hyam

 

 

CORVIDAE

70

11

$51

Weir

 

 

PRECEDENCE

19

6

$31

B. Cummings

 

 

C’EST LA GUERRE

101

12

$101

Hawkes

 

 

SERTORIUS

17

2

$4.20

Edwards

 

 

PROLIFERATE

23

10

$26

Price

 

To show what an exercise in futility it is backing horses resuming, during March 2013 another 218 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 218 horses only 19.5 (8.94%) won (Puissance De Lune dead-heated in Melbourne resuming, hence the half a win), meaning that in the eight months to date of the current racing season, a total of 1186 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne and of those 1186 horses only 109.5 have won, which means just 9.23% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012 and January, February and March 2103 – so conversely an amazing 90.77% lost.

If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $1186 and they’d get back just $840.56, so they’d lose 29.13% of their stake. To set the record straight, two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess ($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16).

Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 107 horses in that category, season-to-date so a punter would obviously outlay $107 and the return would have been only $95.66, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 10.60%. In the month of March 2013 of the 21 horses resuming that started $4 or under, only 7.5 (35.71%) won (again Puissance De Lune’s half a win at comes into this equation as he started at $3.30 officially.

In the racing season-to-date, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.

In the racing season to date, the best training performance was by Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington after 59 weeks off. The second best effort in the racing season to date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other three trainers who have trained a Saturday city class winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12, Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off and Liam Birchley who trained Emmalene to win after 40 weeks off at Eagle Farm on 30/3/13.

In Brisbane only 23 of 258 first up horses have won in the season-to-date which means 8.91% have won – and conversely 91.09% have been beaten.

In Sydney 44 of 393 horses resuming to the end of March 2013 have won, which means 11.19% have won – and conversely 88.81% have been beaten.

In Melbourne 40.5 horses (again includes Puissance De Lune’s half a win) from the 484 that have resumed to the end of March 2013 have won, meaning an abysmal 8.36% have won, or conversely 91.64 % have been beaten.

In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 16/3/13 at Warwick Farm in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes where 10 horses resumed – Hay List, Temple Of Boom, Atomic Force, Decision Time, Tiger Tees, Second Effort, Howmuchdoyouloveme, Fire Thunderbolt, Snitzerland and Single Style – and Snitzerland won the race as the $3.30 favourite.

In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.

So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as even in the season-to-date, 14 of the 110.5 winners (12.66%) started at odds-on, so 14 horses weren’t even betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor. As a matter of interest, Pierro ($1.80) was the only horse to win at odds-on resuming during March 2103, but the other three odds-on favourites that were resuming all got rolled and they were Assail ($1.85), The White Hope ($1.70) I Get Around ($1.95).

Today around the websites it’s as busy as a Beirut bricklayer’s business. On www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the first of two montages of photos from the Gold Coast last Saturday, plus I ask how children ran onto the track at Hawkesbury last Saturday during the running of a race. On www.sydneyracing.com.au Brian Russell looks at an upcoming Scone sale and we find out who is faster – man or beast, then on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls bags the bejesus out of the Group 1 status afforded to Saturday’s Goodwood Handicap in Adelaide – and rightly so.

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