08/05/13
On 30/8/12 I publicly placed on this website the first of what will be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.
As recently as 30/3/13 in Brisbane we saw the long odds-on favourite, The White Hope, run a very lean third when resuming from a relatively short spell of just 18 weeks but he was one of three odds-on favourites that got rolled in Saturday city races during March 2013. In fact 75% of odds-on horses that were resuming in March in Saturday city races went over and they are all named at the end of this article.
The seven original articles which can be viewed in the Justracing archives contained the names of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first seven calendar months of the new racing season, namely 1/8/12 to 31/8/12, 1/9/12 to 30/9/12, 1/10/12 to 31/10/12, 1/11/12 to 30/11/12, 1/12/12 to 31/12/12, 1/1/13 to 31/1/13 and 1/2/13 to 28/2/13 inclusive.
Also noted was 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.
It’s now time to review the March 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States.
Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.
The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of March 2013 in those three States reads:
DATE
CITY
HORSE
WEEKS OFF
PLACING
PRICE
TRAINER
2/3
S-H8
CATKINS
15
1
$10
Waller
KNIGHT EXEMPLAR
17
4
$3.90
O’Shea
VILLA SPLENDIDO
19
3
$8.50
Ryan
WHISKEY ALLROUND
19
2
$8.50
T. Gollan
CHARLIE BOY
15
3
$5.50
Ryan
CITATIONS
16
11
$12
Snowden
SHAHAD
21
9
$31
Waterhouse
PIERRO
18
1
$1.80
Waterhouse
IT’S A DUNDEEL
17
4
$17
Baker
TATRA
15
9
$31
Snowden
PROISIR
18
3
$6
Waterhouse
PROVERB
15
5
$41
Snowden
SOLEMN
18
7
$101
Snowden
CRAFTY IRNA
16
6
$15
Quinton
ALIYANA TILDE
22
9
$31
Parker
FLOOR SHOW
17
8
$31
Walter
KEITH’S LEGACY
14
10
$4
Vandyke
ALTERED BOY
31
1
$16
Waller
TOYDINI
19
5
$8
Walter
M-G3
GLOWS
26
3
$7
Snowden
BOOKLET
24
6
$41
Ellerton
FORMIDABLE
20
5
$18
Ellerton
THY
28
5
$15
Moody
TAVARNELLE
16
1
$12
Hawkes
FOLDING GEAR
16
5
$16
Hope
PRIZUM
16
7
$26
Sadler
READY TO RIP
16
2
$9
Moody
GENERAL TRUCE
13
6
$15
Maund
KARUTA QUEEN
49
3
$5.50
Moody
ISABELLA SNOWFLAKE
14
1
$2.80
Price
PRACTICED
16
2
$3.20
Hickmott
9/3
B-H8
PRETTY STRONG
22
13
$6
Strong
DR BARNARD
15
5
$9
Dougall
HYDE PARK
21
7
$21
Webb
ONETIMEATBANDCAMP
22
6
$11
Thompson
ANGUS ROY
28
9
$21
Smith
MARKOUT
14
11
$71
Richardson
MARGINS
26
9
$10
Currie
FLINDERS CITY
24
12
$31
Bougoure
S-G3
IN CAHOOTS
17
5
$8
Atkins
WINDJAMMER
16
4
$14
Baker
THE OVAL OFFICE
19
9
$51
Simpson/Barnes
SCANDIVA
20
6
$15
A. Cummings
ASPEN
14
8
$14
Snowden
PIRATE BAY
26
5
$20
Lees
MID SUMMER MUSIC
16
4
$8.50
Moody
BAGMAN
20
3
$13
O’Shea
SKYERUSH
16
1
$14
Walter
RASPBERRIES
16
5
$6
Snowden
JULIENAS
23
8
$12
Waterhouse
FAMOUS SEAMUS
17
6
$4.60
May/Smith
STRIKE THE STARS
16
7
$12
A. Cummings
SCREAM MACHINE
12
9
$14
Coyle
MANIGHAR
24
11
$5.50
Moody
SHOOT OUT
19
1
$4
Waller
MEIDUNG
16
7
$12
Snowden
TITLE
26
10
$21
Pride
SEE THE WORLD
25
7
$15
Pride
EMOTIONAL CIRCUS
20
4
$4
Lees
SOCIAL RANK
24
11
$21
Perry
AEROBATICS
17
8
$10
Snowden
NEW BEGINNING
16
6
$8
Thompson
M-G3
DIVA DEE
17
3
$7
A. Cummings
LANKAN RUPEE
18
7
$7.50
Price
SHE’S A FOX
30
3
$3.10
A. Cummings
AGUEDA
17
8
$17
A. Cummings
ELECTRIC FUSION
18
9
$51
Smerdon
DAZZLER
22
6
$18
Snowden
PUISSANCE DE LUNE
17
1 D/H
$3.50
Weir
MUTUAL TRUST
40
9
$13
Prit/Gordon
LA ZUMA
17
6
$81
Moroney
LUCKYGRAY
13
8
$10
Poletti
BARAKEY
15
11
$6.50
Taylor
FONTELINA
17
7
$16
A. Cummings
SANAGAS
17
7
$61
J. Cummings
GOLDONI
25
4
$9
Hayes
16/3
GC-D5
ALLTHERIGHTMOVES
17
1
$9
Kelly
DIET
37
7
$10
White
DOUBLE IMAGE
27
10
$5
Kelly
KEEP IT MOIST
13
9
$8
Aitkenhead
SPIRIT OF FLATLEY
48
12
$9.50
Wood
LUCKY SONGS
17
8
$41
Morrisey
TRESSLES
20
13
$16
Guy
SPLENDORA
21
7
$20
Dunn
S-G3
OCTANE FLYER
20
2
$26
Schweida
LIMES
18
3
$13
Snowden
HEART TESTA
12
2
$2.70
Waller
LAMPEDUSA
13
5
$5.50
Moody
ASSAIL
12
6
$1.85
C. Conners
TROPICAL FORCE
14
8
$51
Baker
MISS STELLABELLE
18
8
$9.50
Waterhouse
SHANNARA
17
7
$21
Snowden
ARINOSA
18
1
$6
Waller
DELZERA
24
10
$31
Walter
HAY LIST
51
4
$4.20
McNair
TEMPLE OF BOOM
18
7
$17
T. Gollan
ATOMIC FORCE
24
10
$51
Smith
DECISION TIME
75
2
$19
C. Conners
TIGER TEES
18
5
$6
Pride
SECOND EFFORT
23
12
$71
McDonald
HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME
18
3
$10
Karakatsanis
FIRE THUNDERBOLT
18
6
$15
Takacs
SNITZERLAND
18
1
$3.30
Ryan
SINGLE STYLE
27
9
$201
Portelli
M-D4
STARS IN THE SKY
19
7
$10
Corstens
ZOUNITE
36
8
$7
Moody
FALCENT
21
2
$7
Harrison
MELTING POT
26
1
$5.50
Ellerton/Zahra
DEL PALIO
36
3
$15
Alderson
LIVIGNO
28
10
$4.60
Fliedner
FELIDEA
18
1
$7
Corstens
LEGION’S BELLE
21
4
$41
Symons
SLEEPERS
31
14
$101
Wales
CHURCHILL DANCER
17
6
$16
Hayes
KIEVANN
12
12
$21
Portelli
CHATEAU MARGAUX
20
5
$4.60
Moody
JET AWAY
31
1
$6
Hayes
STREAKY FELLA
15
11
$101
Purcell
ESCADO
19
6
$8
Laurie
ANUDJAWUN
23
15
$41
Dwyer
MY BENTLEY
24
10
$71
Logan
THE BIG STEEL
13
12
$31
Brown
OREGON SPIRIT
20
1
$13
Moody
SYSMO
25
2
$4.60
McEvoy
23/3
B-G3
IRON JACKET
15
5
$6
Kendrick
CHARLIE’S LASS
17
9
$101
Pritchard
MEMORABLE MOMENT
22
2
$6
Crane
SEA TRYST
13
5
$9
T. Gollan
COMAHNI
18
4
$41
Wilson
VONUSTI
35
10
$31
Jones
TOPPING
20
8
$15
T. Gollan
DOUBTFILLY
27
4
$6.50
Kendrick
QFIGHTER
14
3
$8.50
Dunn
SEEKING MORE
17
1
$3.80
Wood
EUREKA DAZZLER
17
11
$21
T. Gollan
JOINT INIATIVE
19
19
$16
T. Gollan
MS BA BELLA
15
10
$51
Taylor
S-G3
HOT SNITZEL
18
6
$3.70
Ryan
INSTINCTION
19
4
$16
Messara
WELKOM GOLD
15
7
$26
D. Smith
ANISE
16
2
$8.50
Snowden
VILLA VERDE
19
2
$3.20
Dwyer
LE ROI
12
3
$6
McEvoy
HAPPY TRAILS
19
9
$41
Beshara
RAIN AFFAIR
24
4
$31
Pride
SOLZHENITSYN
19
3
$51
Heathcote
MORE JOYOUS
21
2
$4.20
Waterhouse
SECRET ADMIRER
19
5
$26
Begg
NEW DAY RISING
31
5
$31
Pfieffer
M-G3
PLATELET
25
3
$5.50
Weir
MISS BINDI
34
5
$17
Alderson
ELITE ELLE
23
2
$2.70
Vasil
SHARNEE ROSE
18
1
$5
Ellerton
GOLD ZERO
18
8
$101
Clark
SHENZHOU STEEDS
16
4
$12
Moroney
SABRAGE
20
7
$26
Moroney
SOPHIE’S SPIRIT
19
9
$21
Hinton
GARUD
18
3
$5.50
Moroney
SMOKIN’ JOEY
19
4
$12
Price
SPEEDINESS
23
7
$17
Scott
OFFENDERS
19
3
$26
Snowden
CLUB COMMAND
34
2
$7.50
Moody
HONEY FLOWER
19
5
$9.50
R. McDonald
FORTY THIRTY
21
14
$101
C. McDonald
SOLSAY
19
11
$31
Kent
WELLS
14
7
$61
Durden
30/3
B-G3
OUR ZIDANE
20
8
$31
Edmonds
THE WHITE HOPE
18
3
$1.70
Dunn
TAIL AND ALL
17
2
$16
Heathcote
BELLANTINA
24
6
$15
Clarke
FLYING JET
20
5
$5
Schweida
OFF AND LAUGHING
20
8
$5
Thompson
MARCULOO
17
2
$21
Ahrens
I GET AROUND
20
2
$1.95
Perry
EMMALENE
40
1
$4
Birchley
TISANI BOY
15
8
$61
Kemp
PRETTY COMPOSED
24
6
$31
Wakefield
BOREHOLE
14
2
$26
Lawlor
HEATER
18
4
$21
Thompson
TOO MANY REDS
20
11
$11
T. Gollan
PANE IN THE GLASS
24
6
$21
Thompson
METALLURGICAL
20
2
$12
Thompson
THEFT
16
14
$15
T. Gollan
DALZAR
35
13
$61
Duryea
S-G3
AMORINO
28
6
$15
Ryan
FAUSTUS
50
14
$71
O’Shea
MADAME FLY
13
13
$101
Davies
ITAMERI
17
5
$6.50
Snowden
SEA SIREN
15
8
$6.50
O’Shea
BEL SPRINTER
20
1
$10
Warren
PAMPELONNE
21
13
$9
Martin
CARLTON HOUSE
15
13
$4
Waterhouse
LAMASERY
25
10
$26
Vandyke
VOILA ICI
20
18
$26
Moody
RAINBOW STYLING
54
16
$151
Hawkes
LIGHTINTHENITE
20
4
$9
O’Shea
STOUT HEARTED
20
14
$19
Waller
BEATEN UP
24
9
$19
Waller
SOFT SAND
21
11
$6
Messara
ALTAR
20
4
$6
Snowden
EVER THE SAME
20
7
$21
A. Cummings
BRIGHTEST
13
12
$101
Walter
M-D4
KING DIAMOND
2
4
$18
McLean
MUIRFIELD
12
5
$8.50
Moroney
SELF SENSE
12
11
$17
Brideoake
DOWAGER QUEEN
24
12
$26
Moody
MURCIELAGA
29
7
$12
Moroney
AMAETHON
53
2
$17
Ellerton
STRATCOMBE
17
10
$11
Price
WINTER KING
14
7
$14
Brown
AFRICAN PULSE
33
1
$2.50
Moroney
ESPRIT DE BULLET
13
6
$8
Hyam
CORVIDAE
70
11
$51
Weir
PRECEDENCE
19
6
$31
B. Cummings
C’EST LA GUERRE
101
12
$101
Hawkes
SERTORIUS
17
2
$4.20
Edwards
PROLIFERATE
23
10
$26
Price
To show what an exercise in futility it is backing horses resuming, during March 2013 another 218 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 218 horses only 19.5 (8.94%) won (Puissance De Lune dead-heated in Melbourne resuming, hence the half a win), meaning that in the eight months to date of the current racing season, a total of 1186 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne and of those 1186 horses only 109.5 have won, which means just 9.23% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012 and January, February and March 2103 – so conversely an amazing 90.77% lost.
If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $1186 and they’d get back just $840.56, so they’d lose 29.13% of their stake. To set the record straight, two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess ($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16).
Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 107 horses in that category, season-to-date so a punter would obviously outlay $107 and the return would have been only $95.66, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 10.60%. In the month of March 2013 of the 21 horses resuming that started $4 or under, only 7.5 (35.71%) won (again Puissance De Lune’s half a win at comes into this equation as he started at $3.30 officially.
In the racing season-to-date, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.
In the racing season to date, the best training performance was by Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington after 59 weeks off. The second best effort in the racing season to date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other three trainers who have trained a Saturday city class winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12, Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off and Liam Birchley who trained Emmalene to win after 40 weeks off at Eagle Farm on 30/3/13.
In Brisbane only 23 of 258 first up horses have won in the season-to-date which means 8.91% have won – and conversely 91.09% have been beaten.
In Sydney 44 of 393 horses resuming to the end of March 2013 have won, which means 11.19% have won – and conversely 88.81% have been beaten.
In Melbourne 40.5 horses (again includes Puissance De Lune’s half a win) from the 484 that have resumed to the end of March 2013 have won, meaning an abysmal 8.36% have won, or conversely 91.64 % have been beaten.
In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 16/3/13 at Warwick Farm in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes where 10 horses resumed – Hay List, Temple Of Boom, Atomic Force, Decision Time, Tiger Tees, Second Effort, Howmuchdoyouloveme, Fire Thunderbolt, Snitzerland and Single Style – and Snitzerland won the race as the $3.30 favourite.
In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.
So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as even in the season-to-date, 14 of the 110.5 winners (12.66%) started at odds-on, so 14 horses weren’t even betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor. As a matter of interest, Pierro ($1.80) was the only horse to win at odds-on resuming during March 2103, but the other three odds-on favourites that were resuming all got rolled and they were Assail ($1.85), The White Hope ($1.70) I Get Around ($1.95).
Today around the websites it’s as busy as a Beirut bricklayer’s business. On www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the first of two montages of photos from the Gold Coast last Saturday, plus I ask how children ran onto the track at Hawkesbury last Saturday during the running of a race. On www.sydneyracing.com.au Brian Russell looks at an upcoming Scone sale and we find out who is faster – man or beast, then on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls bags the bejesus out of the Group 1 status afforded to Saturday’s Goodwood Handicap in Adelaide – and rightly so.