07/02/13
On 27/12/12 I penned a story entitled “New Year Punting Resolution Number Two: Don’t back horses that haven’t won a race for 52 weeks or more in Saturday city company”.
In that article it was pointed out to readers to “give long term losers a big swerve in Saturday city races throughout 2013” – and beyond. It was also stated “if the horse hasn’t won a race in the last 52 weeks just put a line straight through it – as historically most of them will never win another race. Yet amazingly alleged “experts” blindly tip punters into them day in and day out.
You wouldn’t want to know it but on the next day God decided he’d play silly buggers with me and he let three of the “long term losers” win and those three were Break The Ice ($2.80 fav), Discreet ($2 fav) and Equissential ($14).
Naturally I wasn’t impressed by being made look like a real goose by “The Big Fella”, so I contacted him and asked him what the go was and what he said was “you are spot on disciple Philip but I’m not big on punters. Where in the Bible does it say everyone should go to the track or the club or the TAB on Saturday afternoon and get on the soup and hiss at horses and pull the whip thinking they are a jockey and all this crap? It doesn’t, so by me doing a job on the long term losers and letting a few win, mug punters will be able to do their dough on them throughout the year and hopefully a few will retire from punting and do some charity work or something in lieu of punting”. I must say that relieved me no end to hear The Big Fella’s words but he did say to me as we finished the conversation “do up an article at the end of each month for the next 12 months and you’ll be able to prove your point without a problem”.
So here is a list of all the horses that started in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday city races from 1/1/13 to 31/1/13 inclusive. The track rating at the end of the meeting is noted below.
DATE
CITY
HORSE
WON
PLACING
PRICE
TRAINER
5/1/13
B-G3
Lochiel
24
5
$26
Birchley
Tunahog
30
8
$8
May/Smith
Purettan
15
4
$9
Edmonds
S-G3
Sheniyan
18
4
$18
Waugh
Old Bill
14
7
$18
Waller
Mac Chois
22
8
$51
Robinson
Territory
26
2
$13
Austin
Tullamore
18
9
$21
W/house
Hypurr
18
8
$5
Pride
Jimmy Fortunes
12
11
$31
Clout
Mr Edison
12
5
$21
B. Cummings
Nuptse
12
7
$12
Lees
Bereft
16
2
$7
Snowden
Anything
19
7
$41
Sues
Kuhreihen
12
4
$4.40
Snowden
M-G3
Rocking Force
14
2
$21
Shillito
Shock Value
15
5
$20
Hayes
Waltzes
25
6
$13
McLean
Johnny Fiasco
36
7
$61
Burke
King Cobweb
13
7
$61
Rattle
Inablitz
14
3
$16
Price
Sport Chic
19
7
$15
McDonald
Midnight Glory
17
5
$13
Weir
Dealer Principal
35
9
$101
Saxon
Bigelow
22
6
$31
McDonald
Snow Cover
13
1
$15
Mason
Scottish Border
22
7
$21
Warren
Wind Shear
19
10
$71
Sutton
12/1/13
GC-G3
Playaction
12
14
$61
Clark-Peop
Beethog
20
13
$61
Kelly
Warrior Girl
17
5
$11
Purdy
Huckleberry Dane
27
6
$41
Birchley
Noogoora Burr
12
5
$51
Hansen
Phelan Ready
45
7
$6.50
McLachlan
Triple Elegance
22
1
$14
Waller
Gundy Son
19
2
$31
Heathcote
Internal Revenue
18
14
$101
Heinrich
Witches Wonder
12
9
$71
Page
S-G3
Silk Pins
14
4
$2.70
Waller
Southern Skye
38
2
$26
Perry
Anything
19
6
$41
Sues
Burnout
12
8
$14
Snowden
Miss Spoken
12
6
$7.50
G. Portelli
Emerald Downs
16
3
$4.80
A. Cummings
M-G3
Macedonian
13
5
$11
Moody
I’m Jake
15
8
$12
Brideoake
Pergola
22
7
$81
Alderson
Lucky Eighty Eight
14
4
$14
Ellerton
Chasm
12
5
$10
McCarthy
Spacecraft
15
9
$6
Hayes
Boom ‘N’ Zoom
15
3
$20
Keys
Sadalbari
36
6
$26
Kent
Under The Eiffel
14
3
$8
Vasil
Orbit Express
22
7
$11
McKinnon
By The Way
12
4
$11
Lewis
Dash For Viz
14
2
$10
Griffiths
Roses In The Glen
12
12
$19
Price
Red Rain
15
4
$8
Ellerton
Diamond Diggler
12
8
$12
Smerdon
Rahveel
16
12
$13
Corstens
19/1/13
B-G3
Unrefuseable
17
10
$51
Hocking
Count Encosta
33
3
$5
Thompson
Prost
13
5
$9
Thompson
Fitness Fanatic
22
2
$17
Heinrich
Azzaland
21
5
$6
Stephenson
Dusty Gold
14
2
$12
Dunn
Silver Bullion
24
3
$6.50
Heathcote
Uppland
15
12
$26
Schmidt
S-G3
Don’t Blink
13
8
$11
O’Shea
Mr Edison
12
3
$12
B. Cummings
Kuhreihen
13
6
$3
Snowden
Arms Length
12
3
$26
Goldman
Ying La
14
5
$10
Delaney
Bereft
17
4
$7
Snowden
M-D4
Unchain My Heart
12
2
$61
Hayes
Stardom
13
5
$11
Alderson
Rocking Force
14
6
$12
Shillito
Good Ba Ba
37
4
$8.50
Hore-Lacy
Bigelow
22
15
$21
McDonald
Giresun
12
4
$9
Snowden
Lucky Eighty Eight
14
8
$12
Ellerton
Chasm
12
10
$41
McCarthy
Spacecraft
27
13
$31
Hayes
Elusive King
13
2
$2.70
Moody
Angolaner
18
9
$51
Moody
Kutchinsky
31
1
$6
O’Brien
Thorn Star
13
5
$16
O’Brien
26/1/13
SC-H9
Lochiel
25
7
$9
Birchley
Shadow Buster
13
6
$21
Hall
Expressway
12
7
$10
Mair
S-G3
Jimmy Fortunes
12
3
$101
Clout
Anything
20
5
$41
Sues
Titbit
13
4
$7
Waller
Silk Pins
15
8
$21
Waller
Emerald Downs
16
7
$10
A. Cummings
Tullamore
19
14
$31
Waterhouse
Ironstein
14
6
$21
Ryan
Macedonian
14
4
$17
Moody
Shadows In The Sun
20
1
$8.50
A. Cummings
Yulalona
13
11
$10
Snowden
Magic Weekend
12
7
$18
Hawkes
Radar
12
9
$10
Snowden
Sensational Moment
17
11
$201
Pignataro
Orthie’s Gem
18
7
$101
Neale
Southern Skye
39
14
$21
Perry
War Charm
12
1
$5
Williams
M-G3
Avionics
12
4
$8
Griffiths
Under The Eiffel
14
2
$5.50
Vasil
Orbit Express
22
9
$18
McKinnon
Dash For Viz
14
10
$7
Griffiths
Waltzes
14
6
$21
McLean
Decircles
17
2
$3.70
O’Brien
Midnight Glory
18
4
$20
Weir
So from just one month of Saturday metropolitan racing in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, some 113 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks inclusive or longer raced. And of those 113 horses only five (or 4.43%) won, which conversely means 95.57% of “long term losers” failed to win a race again. The five that won and the time they’d been absent from the winners list were Snow Cover (13 months), Triple Elegance (22), Kutchinsky (31), Shadows In The sun (20) and War Charm (12).
If a punter had $1 a win on all long term losers they’d outlay $113 and the return, based on their official starting price, including their $1 stake back would be $48.50 so they’d get 42.92% of their outlay back, meaning they’d lose 57.08% of their stake.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there is the second big montage of photos from the Marburg harness racing meeting and Doomben gallops last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au the performance of past and present Aussie shuttle stallions heading to overseas destinations is reviewed, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls pens another interesting read.