15/05/13
On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of 12 monthly stories proving that backing horses that haven’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses are contesting Saturday city races – is simply a quick way for a punter to lose their hard earned.
To have any remote chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a calendar year, punters need to establish some rules to abide by. Those rules may be to 1) not to back odds-on chances, 2) not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, 3) not to back horses resuming from a spell, 4) not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera.
Avoiding backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy as I’ll prove in 12 articles that will go up publicly during this calendar year. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.
The two previous stories that I penned on the subject on from January 2013 and February 2013 can be read by clicking HERE and HERE.
Today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of March 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly 1) hear the “experts” tip and/or that 2) ill-informed punters back. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, the name of the trainer, the place it ran on the day and the official starting price.
DAY
CITY
HORSE
MONTHS SINCE WON
PLACE
PRICE
TRAINER
2/3
S-H8
Rivalled
25
3
$7
Vandyke
Ladys Angel
22
3
$8
Pride
Driefontein
12
4
$7
Waterhouse
Raceway
12
11
$20
Waterhouse
Altered Boy
26
1
$16
Waller
M-G3
Shewan
16
4
$3.40
Smerdon
Elusive King
14
5
$5.50
Moody
Booklet
18
6
$41
Ellerton
Formidable
13
5
$18
Ellerton
Unchain My Heart
14
4
$20
Hayes
Red Shift
13
5
$11
Carey
Canali
15
5
$15
Brown
Perturbo
19
4
$10
Alderson
Karuta Queen
16
3
$5.50
Moody
Morant
16
10
$20
Williams
Domesky
15
7
$26
Kent
Auld Burns
19
1
$10
Hayes
Under The Hat
12
4
$6
Sadler
Scottish Border
24
8
$26
Warren
9/3
B-H8
Peelings
20
3
$5.50
May/Smith
Count Encosta
35
2
$6.50
Thompson
Carnegies Cruzin
35
7
$26
Robbins
Doubtful Jack
17
3
$4.20
Schweida
Joint Chiefs
16
1
$6
Wakefield
Prost
14
2
$6.50
Thompson
Silver Bullion
26
5
$9
Heathcote
Epic
20
2
$9
Schweida
Chart
18
10
$31
Edmonds
Chandra
19
3
$18
Dann
Time To Plunder
12
2
$6
Birchley
Product
12
5
$13
Birchley
S-G3
Charleston Lady
16
5
$11
Waller
Eigelstein
17
9
$5.50
Waller
Mr Edison
14
2
$10
B. Cummings
Strike The Stars
17
7
$12
A. Cummings
Albert The Fat
16
8
$31
Waller
Monton
14
2
$31
Quinton
Driefontein
12
2
$7
Waterhouse
Jest Crewsin’
21
9
$21
Bowen
M-G3
Wall Street
28
3
$5.50
Moroney
Maluckyday
28
6
$11
Hawkes
Willy Jimmy
20
5
$9.50
Walter
Spirit of Boom
13
6
$13
T. Gollan
Lone Rock
18
13
$51
Smerdon
Satin Shoes
16
10
$41
C. Conners
Glass Harmonium
16
5
$11
Moroney
Hi Belle
12
3
$5.50
Gunning
Never Forget
18
8
$17
Moody
Sanagas
15
7
$61
A. Cummings
Centennial Park
25
1
$7.50
Payne
16/3
GC-D4
Alltherightmoves
15
1
$9
L. Kelly
Come Said The Boy
41
L/R*
$8
P. Nolan jnr
Emvoss
15
6
$4.60
Edmonds
Haizum
12
6
$17
Sears
Spirit of Flatley
12
12
$9.50
Wood
Tornadoes
22
2
$21
Andrew
Skating On Ice
14
7
$6
L. Kelly
Fitness Fanatic
23
6
$14
Heinrich
S-G3
Stand To Gain
22
8
$81
Waller
Shannara
16
7
$21
Snowden
Hay List
12
4
$4.20
McNair
Atomic Force
14
10
$51
D. Smith
Decision Time
18
2
$19
C. Conners
Fire Thunderbolt
12
6
$15
Takacs
Aliyana Tilde
12
3
$21
Parker
B-D4
Valedictorian
12
6
$10
Hayes
Unchain My Heart
14
3
$5.50
Hayes
Formidable
14
4
$8
Ellerton
Lil Red Corvette
13
10
$17
Stanley
De Palio
13
3
$15
Alderson
Johnnydrama
18
12
$81
Corstens
Spot On Maggie
12
6
$8.50
Carey
Legion’s Belle
14
4
$41
Symons
Sleepers
22
14
$101
Wales
Total Attraction
13
6
$9
Moody
Avionics
13
11
$17
Griffiths
Two Hills
14
8
$31
Browell
Booklet
18
9
$16
Ellerton
Wall Street
28
4
$6
Moroney
Anudjawun
34
15
$41
Dwyer
It’s Prince
16
11
$151
Griffith
The Big Steel
22
12
$31
Brown
Giresun
14
5
$10
Snowden
Plucky Belle
12
4
$12
Moody
Sysmo
13
2
$4.60
McEvoy
23/3
B-G3
Epic
21
1
$6.50
Schweida
Chandra
19
7
$9
Dann
Double Impact
13
7
$10
Crompton
Doubtful Jack
17
4
$7.50
Schweida
Skating On Ice
14
2
$4.40
L. Kelly
Prost
15
5
$4.20
Thompson
Dusty Gold
16
9
$12
Dunn
Doubtfilly
12
4
$6.50
Kendrick
S-G3
Hot Snitzel
13
6
$3.70
Ryan
Anise
23
2
$8.50
Snowden
Hurrara
12
3
$11
Frazer
Sanagas
15
9
$41
B. Cummings
Ashokan
12
5
$3.20
O’Shea
Driefontein
13
6
$13
Waterhouse
Secret Admirer
17
5
$26
Begg
New Day Rising
14
5
$31
Pfieffer
Raceway
13
6
$26
Waterhouse
Territory
29
3
$17
Austin
M-G3
Gotta Keep Cool
20
7
$81
Weir
Royal Mail
14
8
$20
Howard
Sabrage
17
7
$26
Moroney
Sophie’s Spirit
16
9
$21
Hinton
Go The Knuckle
12
9
$5.50
Smerdon
Speediness
13
7
$17
Scott
Offenders
25
3
$26
Snowden
Mister Milton
14
12
$26
Waymouth
Valedictorian
12
2
$13
Hayes
30/3
B-G3
Count Encosta
35
4
$7.50
Thompson
Captain Clayton
28
9
$31
Heathcote
Time To Plunder
13
1
$9
Birchley
Nickiera
15
8
$101
T. Thomas
Noogoora Burr
15
6
$5.50
Lawlor
Product
13
4
$11
Birchley
Emmalene
16
1
$4
Birchley
Pretty Composed
16
6
$31
Wakefield
Border Rebel
12
10
$15
Grills
Tierqualo
12
9
$41
Doughty
Pane In The Glass
20
6
$21
Thompson
Haizum
12
16
$31
Sears
Dalzar
26
13
$61
Duryea
S-G3
Fire Thunderbolt
12
10
$10
Takacs
Amorino
14
6
$15
Ryan
Faustus
16
14
$71
O’Shea
Never Forget
19
12
$31
Moody
Aliyana Tilde
12
1
$8.50
Parker
Decision Time
18
3
$17
C. Conners
Atomic Force
14
7
$71
D. Smith
Title
12
6
$41
Pride
Voila Ici
21
18
$26
Moody
Monton
15
3
$9
Quinton
Rainbow Styling
14
16
$151
Hawkes
Willy Jimmy
21
17
$26
Walter
Beaten Up
17
9
$19
Waller
Strike The Stars
18
15
$17
A. Cummings
Maules Creek
12
11
$71
Thompson
Altar
24
4
$6
Snowden
M-D4
Anudjawun
34
7
$31
Dwyer
Muirfield
12
5
$8.50
Moroney
Biancon Rose
19
10
$26
Brideoake
Dowager Queen
18
12
$26
Moody
Sweet Ella
12
8
$8
Eurell
Plucky Belle
12
1
$8.50
Moody
Amaethon
12
2
$17
Ellerton
Winter King
31
7
$14
S. Brown
Corvidae
17
11
$51
Weir
C’est La Guerre
29
12
$101
Hawkes
Blackie
24
9
$31
McLean
Proliferate
16
10
$26
Price
Wall Street
28
6
$19
Moroney
Mutual Trust
20
11
$21
Prit/Gordon
Red Shift
14
9
$91
Carey
* = Lost Rider
So after the first two months of surveyed Saturday metropolitan racing in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne (January 2013 and February 2013), a further 156 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started during March 2013. Of those 156 horses only 10 or 6.41% won. The 10 that won in this month’s surveyed horses were Altered Boy, Auld Burns, Joint Chiefs, Centennial Park, Alltherightmoves, Epic, Time To Plunder, Emmalene, Aliyana Tilde and Plucky Belle,
If a punter had $1 a win on the 156 “long term losers” that raced in March they’d obviously outlay $156 and the return including their $1 stake back was $85.00, so a punter would get 54.48% of their outlay back so they’d lose 45.52% of their stake.
So from the three months this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 394 “long term losers” have run and of the 394, only 21 have won, which means 5.32% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 94.68% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.
Across the three months a $1 win bet on each horse would see $394 outlaid (113 in January, 125 in February and 156 in March) and the return including their $1 stake would be $179 ($48.50 in January, $45.50 in February and $85.00 in March) so a punter would get back 45.43% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 54.57% of their stake.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there is the first of two montages of photos from Eagle Farm last Saturday plus exclusive news on a high profile jockey’s retirement. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story about the two big days happening at Scone next Friday and Saturday, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls talks of Victorian racing.