12/06/13
On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what will be 12 monthly stories proving that backing horses that haven’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses are contesting Saturday city races – is simply a quick way for a punter to lose their hard earned moola.
To have any remote chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a calendar year, punters need to establish some rules to abide by. Those rules may be to 1) not to back odds-on favourites, 2) not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, 3) not to back horses resuming from a spell, 4) not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera.
Avoiding backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy as I’ll prove conclusively in those 12 articles that will go up publicly during this calendar year. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.
The three previous stories that I penned on the subject on from January 2013, February 2013 and March 2013 can be read by clicking HERE, HERE and HERE.
Today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of April 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly 1) hear the “experts” tip and/or that 2) ill-informed punters back. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, along with the name of the trainer, the placing it ran on the day and the official starting price.
DATE
CITY
HORSE
WON
PLACING
PRICE
TRAINER
6/4
B-S7
GUNNER KNOX
17
3
$7.50
L. May/Smith
EMVOSS
15
5
$6
Edmonds
DUSTY GOLD
17
3
$6.50
Dunn
AROUND THE WORLD
13
5
$15
Hanna
KNEELING
19
7
$5
Thompson
PONZI SCHEME
14
8
$51
Kropp
DOUBTFUL JACK
17
6
$6
Schweida
WARRIOR WITHIN
17
12
$51
Hill
SKATING ON ICE
14
3
$4.60
L. Kelly
PROST
15
7
$11
Thompson
FANTISHA
12
6
$9
O’Dea
S-S7
SINGLE
12
6
$15
Carmody
STRIKE THE STARS
18
5
$12
A. Cummings
DRIEFONTEIN
13
6
$12
Waterhouse
MALUCKYDAY
29
6
$9
Hawkes
SECRET ADMIRER
17
4
$17
Begg
SHANNARA
16
10
$81
Snowden
RELIABLE MAN
18
6
$51
Waller
HAPPY ZERO
24
12
$81
Hawkes
HOT SNITZEL
13
(1)
$15
Ryan
RAREFIED
43
4
$21
Snowden
WILD AND PROUD
12
13
$21
Pfieffer
LADYS ANGEL
23
10
$10
Pride
M-G3
BLUE RIBBON
12
2
$4.40
Little
CRIMSON LADY
12
9
$7.50
Moroney
APPLEBOTTOM
26
8
$301
Stennett
GOLD MEDALS
12
(1)
$8.50
Wilde
BIG CHILL
12
6
$10
Ellerton
MACEDONIAN
28
9
$7
Moody
I’M JAKE
17
4
$16
Brideoake
GOTTA KEEP COOL
19
10
$51
Weir
UNCHAIN MY HEART
14
3
$9
Hayes
OVER QUOTA
12
8
$12
Webb
ITS PRINCE
16
6
$51
Griffiths
PERTURBO
20
10
$14
Alderson
GO THE KNUCKLE
12
2
$10
Smerdon
SPEEDINESS
13
6
$12
Scott
McCLINTOCK
41
12
$6
De Montfort
13/4
VOILA ICI
22
16
$61
Moody
CLASS IS CLASS
20
8
$31
Waller
BEATEN UP
17
11
$7
Waller
ILLO
21
3
$41
Waller
MAULES CREEK
12
12
$31
Thompson
LESS IS MORE
12
14
$21
Vandyke
SATIN SHOES
17
13
$26
C. Conners
ALTAR
24
8
$15
Snowden
KARUTA QUEEN
17
10
$12
Moody
LADYS ANGEL
23
9
$15
Pride
FORFEITURE
12
15
$21
Snowden
HAY LIST
13
10
$41
McNair
RAIN AFFAIR
12
4
$51
Pride
DECISION TIME
19
6
$101
C. Conners
ATOMIC FORCE
15
9
$201
D. Smith
TITLE
12
8
$151
Pride
ONTHELOOKOUT
13
11
$401
Joseph
M-G3
FORMIDABLE
14
7
$16
Ellerton/Za
BIG CHILL
12
6
$11
Ellerton/Za
MAMA’S CHOICE
14
10
$26
Hayes
MALUTI
16
5
$14
Snowden
LARISTAN
25
11
$51
Hayes
MUIRFIELD
13
11
$21
Moroney
WINTER KING
31
9
$15
S. Brown
THAT’S THE ONE
13
2
$9
Alderson
DASH FOR VIZ
17
6
$26
Griffith
DECIRCLES
18
3
$5.50
O’Brien
LIVIGNO
12
5
$21
Fliedner
DOWAGER QUEEN
19
13
$41
Moody
LITTLE BRO
12
4
$9
Sadler
20/4
B-S6
PROST
16
3
$10
Thompson
KAR MA TE
16
9
$31
Laming
COUNT ENCOSTA
36
6
$8.50
Thompson
ZA MAGIC
12
5
$26
Smith
FANTISHA
13
(1)
$17
O’Dea
NEVER FORGET
19
10
$26
Heathcote
WARRIOR WITHIN
18
14
$101
Hill
MAURY
12
9
$21
Thompson
GREEN BIRDIE
35
10
$31
Duryea
MUIR
25
17
$101
T. Miller
BORDER REBEL
13
4
$15
Grills
LATIN NEWS
35
7
$26
Dais
UTAH SAINTS
12
2
$13
Stanley
MEET GEORGE
12
5
$31
Smith
MR ARMSTRONG
14
11
$21
Thompson
PANE IN THE GLASS
20
3
$12
Thompson
EVER THE SAME
12
9
$4.60
A. Cummings
S-H9
RED SHIFT
14
8
$11
Carey
HURRARA
13
5
$8
Frazer
POTIONS
24
3
$17
Thompson
FIBRILLATION
12
2
$8
Martin
MAULES CREEK
13
4
$8.50
Thompson
GLASS HARMONIUM
17
14
$51
Moroney
ETHIOPIA
12
17
$21
Carey
SECRET ADMIRER
18
8
$20
Begg
MONTON
16
16
$51
Quinton
STRIKE THE STARS
19
12
$101
A. Cummings
HOME ON A WING
20
9
$91
A. Cummings
M-D5
SPOT ON MAGGIE
13
2
$12
Carey
C’EST LA GUERRE
30
10
$101
Hawkes
AMAETHON
12
7
$10
Ellerton
MAREEZA
12
3
$12
Moody
FORMIDABLE
15
4
$21
Ellerton
SPEEDINESS
14
(1)
$10
Scott
OFFENDERS
26
5
$6
Snowden
27/4
B-G3
DUSTY GOLD
18
4
$21
Dunn
VESPER
26
13
$151
Jacobs
RAEBURN
28
6
$101
B. Smith
DALZAR
27
10
$31
Duryea
GUNNER KNOX
18
8
$8
L. May/Smith
KNEELING
19
14
$21
Thompson
BAQABA
34
13
$101
Tregea
G’DAY OLD MATE
12
5
$12
Squair
ROCKER
12
8
$4.80
Schweida
SILVER BULLION
26
6
$21
Heathcote
SPIRIT OF FLATLEY
14
7
$26
Wood
NOOGOORA BURR
16
14
$41
Lawlor
TEMPLE OF BOOM
12
7
$15
T. Gollan
SPIRIT OF BOOM
15
2
$9
T. Gollan
LISTEN SON
17
4
$61
T. Gollan
NEW DAY RISING
15
(1)
$5
Pfieffer
AROUND THE WORLD
14
5
$31
Hanna
S-G3
DRIEFONTEIN
14
6
$3.70
Waterhouse
SILK PINS
17
10
$15
Waller
SAY NO MORE
12
9
$10
Waller
SHANNARA
17
8
$11
Snowden
FLORIA
13
2
$31
McKee
MANIGHAR
12
7
$21
Moody
RELIABLE MAN
19
(1)
$12
Waller
GLASS HARMONIUM
18
8
$26
Moroney
SECRET ADMIRER
18
5
$21
Begg
MALUCKYDAY
29
7
$5.50
Hawkes
MACEDONIAN
30
5
$41
Moody
RANGIRANGDOO
24
5
$26
Waller
RAIN AFFAIR
12
2
$11
Pride
SMOKIN’ JOEY
12
8
$61
Price
MANAWANUI
18
5
$11
Lemon
DECISION TIME
20
6
$4.60
C. Conners
MASTER HARRY
24
11
$31
Quinton
TITLE
13
4
$16
Pride
RAREFIED
44
(1)
$8
Snowden
SOMEPIN ANYPIN
17
7
$8
Waterhouse
STRATANA
17
14
$41
Sargent
RENEWED VITALITY
19
13
$26
Thompson
M-D4
BLUE RIBBON
12
9
$3.20
Little
TWIN SOUL
25
3
$7
Kent
BIG CHILL
12
5
$10
Ellerton
GREAT PLAYER
19
9
$101
Craven
DOWAGER QUEEN
19
8
$31
Moody
HARRY TRIMBOLE
213
3
$9
Kent
DE FINE LAGO
40
5
$151
Vasil
ABSALON
22
7
$10
S. Kavanagh
LITTLE BRO
12
2
$14
Sadler
QUEEN DELIGHT
18
7
$21
Harrison
UMGETON
26
(1)
$8.50
Hearps
DASHING SHADOW
12
9
$101
Johnson
So after the first three months of surveyed Saturday metropolitan racing in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne (January 2013, February 2013 and March 2013), a further 154 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started during April 2013. Of those 154 horses only 8 or 5.19% won. The 8 that won in this month’s surveyed horses were Hot Snitzel, Gold Medals, Fantisha, Speediness, New Day Rising, Reliable Man, Rarefied and Umgeton.
If a punter had $1 a win on the 154 “long term losers” that raced in April they’d obviously outlay $154 and the return including their $1 stake back was $84.00, so a punter would get 54.54% of their outlay back meaning they’d lose 45.46% of their stake.
So in the four months that this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 548 “long term losers” have run and of the 548, only 29 have won, which means 5.29% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 94.71% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.
Across the three months, a $1 win bet on each horse would see $548 outlaid (113 in January, 125 in February, 156 in March and 154 in April) and the return including their $1 stake would be $263 ($48.50 in January, $45.50 in February, $85.00 in March and $84.00 in April) so a punter would get back 47.99% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 52.01% of their stake.
Re the Ipswich weather before Cup day on Saturday we got another 5mm of rain overnight, meaning we’ve had 31mm between Monday and this morning at 7am and more rain is predicted this afternoon. I can’t vouch for what the race club has had – but the rain seemed very general. The day has dawned a real pea-souper, with the biggest and thickest fog you’ve ever seen, except for Toowoomba where visibilty can get down to virtually zero in a big fog.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there is the second big montage of photos from Stradbroke day last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s another in the popular What’s In A Name segment, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls is a bit fired up over bookies percentages.