03/10/13
On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what will be 12 monthly stories proving that backing horses that haven’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses are contesting Saturday city races – is simply a quick way for a punter to lose their hard earned.
To have any remote chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a calendar year, punters need to establish some rules to abide by. Those rules may be to 1) not to back odds-on favourites, 2) not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, 3) not to back horses resuming from a spell, 4) not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera.
Avoiding backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy as I’ll prove conclusively in those 12 articles that will go up publicly during this calendar year. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.
The seven previous stories that I penned on the subject from the first seven calendar months of this year can be read in the archives at the far bottom of this page.
Today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of August 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly 1) hear the “experts” tip and/or that 2) ill-informed punters back time and again. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, along with the name of the trainer, the placing it ran on the day and the official starting price.
DATE
CITY
HORSE
WON
PLACING
PRICE
TRAINER
3/8
B-G3
JUNGLE HEAT
37
1
$12
Smith
SPINHRO
13
4
$5
Stephens
HUCKLEBERRY DANE
34
8
$26
Birchley
TOPPING
12
7
$3.20
T. Gollan
RAEBURN
31
2
$4.20
Smith
KISS ME DEADLY
15
8
$21
Lipp
WARRIOR WITHIN
22
11
$101
Hill
DIAGO
15
10
$26
Pratt
LA TIKKA ROSA
12
7
$8.50
Dunn
ESSINGTON
24
8
$5
Hansen
METALLURGICAL
15
6
$10
Thompson
BAQABA
37
11
$71
Tregea
CHIPP’N AWAY
15
9
$31
Edmonds
S-G3
DEE’N’GEE
15
3
$9
C. Connors
ALTIUS
23
4
$19
Waller
FALZZON
14
5
$15
Schmetzer
BRAYROAN
24
11
$61
Ruttley
HARMONIC
13
1
$19
McEvoy
LADY LA DOUCE
17
1
$7
Croft
SWEET LITTLE LIES
18
6
$10
Waller
IRONSTEIN
21
9
$51
Ryan
WAZN
18
10
$10
Waller
WINNING GLORY
13
8
$8
Payne
EURYALE
13
3
$17
Snowden
VIKING LEGEND
46
6
$31
Simpson
PRAECIDO
17
5
$21
Payne
FILL THE PAGE
16
11
$61
Vandyke
GLIDING
21
12
$20
B. Cummings
ACAPELA
18
6
$7.50
Waller
OAKFIELDCOMET
18
13
$21
D. Smith
TENBY LADY
23
4
$21
W/house
M-D5
EXCEPTIONALLY
12
6
$12
O’Sullivan
SEA GALLEON
19
4
$9
Alderson
DARLIMURLA STAR
12
5
$4.80
Kent
WILLING JOURNEY
28
8
$201
Symons
ELIZA BLUES
16
3
$7.50
Waller
REUBEN PERCIVAL
14
5
$4.40
W/house
BRIGHT HORIZON
34
10
$101
Hutch/son
LYONELL
12
8
$31
Mallinson
ALPHA PROXIMA
13
1
$10
Corstens
NOBLE PARK
15
7
$12
Moroney
CANALI
20
8
$6.50
S. Brown
OSVALDO
12
9
$71
McCarthy
WHATANEXCUSE
20
5
$17
Short
CORVIDAE
21
10
$17
Weir
SIR FERNANDO
16
4
$9
Price
SIGNOR SOCKS
16
12
$101
Goodrich
10/8
B-G3
FALINO
22
4
$8.50
Bell
CLANGER
12
12
$31
Smith
CROSS THE STAR
12
6
$61
Andrew
MALING
19
7
$8.50
Lawlor
DANEOMITE
14
9
$21
Harden
NOOGOORA BURR
19
6
$17
Lawlor
THE CRANBERRIES
16
12
$101
Schmidt
SPECHENKA
13
7
$71
Ahrens
ZA MAGIC
15
8
$31
Smith
DIVINE CITY
13
1
$9
Taylor
MISS ORIELLE
12
10
$21
Dawson
LADY COLOURS
18
5
$9
Hill
FOMAL PRINCESS
41
11
$201
Cot/poulos
S-S6
MARTINVAST
14
5
$6.50
Ryan
THEBIGIAM
14
6
$21
Curtis
CAPITAL COMMANDER
18
3
$15
Olive
HIDDEN KISSES
12
1
$5
Waller
BUTT I’M READY
12
6
$26
G. Portelli
RAIN AFFAIR
16
1
$1.30
Pride
ATOMIC FORCE
20
6
$31
D. Smith
TITLE
16
3
$20
Pride
MY DESTINY
19
4
$18
Berry
PRETTY PINS
19
1
$7
Thompson
VIKING LEGEND
46
11
$31
Simpson
ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ
12
7
$31
Nickson
HENDRICUS
12
5
$6
O’Shea
HAPPY HUSSY
19
9
$12
Vandyke
M-S6
DEHERE HUNTER
12
6
$15
Harris
DONOVANS
14
15
$61
Eden
INNOCENT LADY
16
3
$10
Laming
RED TYPHOON
14
15
$8.50
Smerdon
ELIZA BLUES
16
8
$6.50
Waller
MISS MATTY
13
5
$21
Kent
HOTHAM HEIGHTS
13
5
$21
Oliver
GOSSIP GIRL
13
6
$20
Mason
ROMAN TREASURE
13
11
$12
Moody
COLUMBUS
24
7
$15
Hayes
STAR LANI
12
12
$7
Oliver
LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT
21
6
$31
Ellerton
WHY NOT
12
8
$16
Hayes
UNDER THE HAT
17
12
$8.50
Sadler
BELLISSIMO
15
4
$8
A. Cummings
HIPHOPOPOTAMUS
28
11
$81
Wilde
LADYS ANGEL
27
3
$8
O’Brien
MR GRISWOLD
24
13
$81
Ellerton
HALO MISS MAHER
12
13
$101
McCarthy
WROTHAM HEATH
14
12
$15
Hayes
TEMPLE OF BOOM
15
2
$5.50
T. Gollan
UPBEAT
17
8
$14
A. Cummings
SUPREMACY
21
1
$12
Cameron
SEA SKYE
13
2
$5.50
Laming
AERONWY
13
6
$21
Moody
SENSATIONAL REPORT
16
11
$101
Wynne
17/8
B-G3
WARRIOR WITHIN
22
4
$61
Hill
SPECHENKA
13
3
$15
Ahrens
RAEBURN
31
4
$4.60
Smith
FUSIL DE EVE
13
9
$51
McLachlan
D’JET
12
5
$2.60
Lavin
BUSH AVIATOR
18
8
$16
T. Gollan
GOLDEN CASH
30
9
$71
G. Rich/son
MR ORIENT
14
9
$21
Balzen
LINE OF CONFLICT
23
13
$101
Heinrich
S-G3
POLISH KNIGHT
16
6
$31
Hawkes
ILLO
25
7
$17
Waller
I’M IMPOSING
34
8
$21
Waller
SOLEDAD
13
2
$9
Snowden
HONORIUS
15
1
$4.80
Payne
GLIDING
22
12
$9.50
B. Cummings
TENBY LADY
24
2
$4.20
W/house
BRAYROAN
24
9
$101
Ruttley
KENNY’S WORLD
35
10
$61
Murray
DEE’N’GEE
16
5
$12.90
C. Connors
SAINTHOOD
39
7
$51
Worth/ton
ALTIUS
24
4
$9
Waller
SUSSURO
13
8
$41
Messara
TOTAL ATTRACTION
18
6
$6.50
Vandyke
APPLEGATE
21
12
$51
Snowden
IRONSTEIN
21
12
$51
Ryan
WAZN
18
14
$31
Waller
WINNING GLORY
14
1
$17
Payne
EURYALE
13
3
$15
Snowden
MUIRFIELD
17
11
$81
Moroney
PRAECIDO
17
7
$21
Payne
M-G3
MAYNEDA STRATEGY
19
7
$61
Pennuto
BEE’S HONEY
20
8
$61
Blackiston
CHASSE
15
6
$8
Snowden
PAKAL
14
1
$5.50
Price
EXCEPTIONALLY
13
6
$13
O’Sullivan
HANKS
17
1
$31
Moody
LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT
21
10
$10
Ellerton
NOBLE PARK
16
7
$12
Moroney
AMAH ROCK
15
7
$7
Morgan
ZOOMANIA
19
12
$51
Moody
24/8
B-G3
JUST A PICCOLO
19
7
$31
E. Hayes
NOOGOORA BURR
20
3
$17
Lawlor
MALING
20
1
$10
Lawlor
CLANGOR
13
8
$13
B. Smith
LAMICHI
27
6
$17
Laming
LISTEN SON
21
1
$6
T. Gollan
LATIN NEWS
40
FTF
$26
Dais
METALLURGICAL
16
5
$17
Thompson
S-G3
THEBIGIAM
15
5
$101
Curtis
ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ
13
7
$18
Nickson
GANGSTER’S CHOICE
12
3
$10
O’Shea
ACAPELA
19
1
$4.60
Waller
SCORPIO QUEEN
15
4
$41
Parker
METAL BENDER
16
6
$21
Waller
SNEAK A PEEK
23
11
$101
Moody
TOM’S ROCKET
23
5
$41
Rowley
WINDSWEPT
13
1
$3.50
Ryan
MONTON
20
11
$18
Quinton
TITLE
17
2
$31
Pride
WILLY JIMMY
26
13
$151
Walter
M-D4
REUBEN PERCIVAL
14
7
$6.50
W/house
INNOCENT LADY
16
3
$8
Laming
ROWLAND
12
5
$18
Laing
BRIGHT HORIZON
34
11
$151
Huchinson
CANALI
20
8
$41
Brown
CHOSEN TO FLY
14
2
$21
Alderson
GOSSIP GIRL
14
7
$9
Mason
SPOT ON MAGGIE
17
8
$21
Carey
BARBIE’S BOMBSHELL
12
6
$41
Bonella
SENSATIONAL REPORT
16
2
$101
Wynne
THOUGHT WORTHY
12
11
$17
Hickmott
MASSIYN
13
12
$8.50
Hickmott
CLEAR FOR ACTION
23
1
$7
Conlan
LORD PYRUS
30
7
$81
Mawer
CHEVIOT BEACH
18
8
$41
Blackiston
DARK NOTE
24
13
$151
Houlahan
SEA SKYE
13
6
$9
Laming
RED EYE SPECIAL
23
9
$81
Bourke
STANZOUT
36
5
$81
Davies
SHADOWFAX
26
7
$20
Oliver
HOTHAM HEIGHTS
13
8
$21
Oliver
HOLLOWLEA
35
12
$31
O’Sullivan
SIR FERNANDO
17
2
$7.50
Price
SHE GOES TO RIO
17
9
$26
Weir
31/8
B-G3
KOLONGA
16
6
$21
Nikolic
D’JET
12
5
$6.50
Lavin
OUR HUSSEY
12
9
$61
Hill
KISS ME DEADLY
16
11
$61
Lipp
SPECHENKA
13
6
$14
Ahrens
ZA MAGIC
16
2
$19
B. Smith
RAEBURN
32
4
$9
B. Smith
WARRIOR WITHIN
22
11
$61
Hill
FALINO
22
5
$12
Bell
S-G3
TENBY LADY
24
3
$4.20
W/house
I’M IMPOSING
34
3
$61
Waller
ALTIUS
24
5
$3.80
Waller
SAINTHOOD
39
7
$31
Worth/ton
RED TYPHOON
15
11
$41
Dale
SHENIYAN
26
10
$18
Waugh
THEBIGIAM
15
8
$31
Curtis
SINGLE
17
4
$61
Carmody
DEE’N’GEE
16
3
$12
C. Conners
BRAVE SOUL
12
4
$4
Pride
MISS SPOKEN
19
7
$61
G. Portelli
POLISH KNIGHT
16
8
$26
Hawkes
MICHELANGELO
14
13
$14
W/house
IRONSTEIN
21
2
$51
Ryan
EURYALE
14
4
$21
Snowden
M-D4
FIBRILLATION
16
2
$20
Price
REMEMBA HOWE
15
11
$26
Walker
ROMAN TREASURE
13
12
$21
Moody
MOURASANA
22
13
$61
Moroney
SPOT ON MAGGIE
17
9
$12
Carey
ZOOMANIA
20
10
$26
Moody
LUCKY CHAPPY
25
13
$61
Carey
LIDARI
14
1
$12
Moody
OSVALDO
13
10
$151
McCarthy
SOLEDAD
13
7
$15
Snowden
UNDERESTIMATION
16
8
$17
Lawson
NEESON
22
5
$7
Hawkes
SAMAREADY
17
1
$5.50
Price
YOSEI
26
10
$12
Webb
ANISE
28
3
$17
Snowden
ANABAA’S LEGACY
33
7
$101
Binaisse
VOILA ICI
26
16
$61
Moody
KESAMPOUR
15
7
$10
Moody
CHASSE
15
5
$41
Snowden
ARALDO
12
15
$9
Moroney
FIORENTE
13
6
$8.50
W/house
SEVILLE
26
13
$71
Hickmott
MY QUEST FOR PEACE
12
12
$101
Moody
ATLANTIC JEWEL
16
1
$2.20
M. Kavanagh
So after the first eight calendar months of 2013 Saturday metropolitan race meetings in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, a further 232 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started during August 2013. Of those 232 horses only 21 or 9.05% won. The 21 that won in this month’s surveyed horses include some real little heartthrobs of the Australian turf. Check out the names of some of these horses and there are sure some “chaffbandits and oxygen thieves”. Among this group are horses like: Jungle Heat, Lady La Douce, Alpha Proxima, Pretty Pins, Honorius, Hanks, Maling, Listen Son and Acapela. Jungle Heat hadn’t won for a whopping 37 months before he scored on 3 August, but he failed by nine months to beat Mic Mac, which hadn’t won a Saturday city race for 46 months when he scored during July 2013. As such Mic Mac has the dubious distinction of being able to win a Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney or Melbourne with the longest timeframe between wins.
If a punter had $1 a win on the 232 “long term losers” that raced in August they’d obviously outlay $232 and the return including their $1 stake back was amazingly $191.40, so a punter would get 82.50% of their outlay back meaning they’d lose 17.50% of their stake. Darlings of the turf like Hanks at 30/1 saluted during August prompting blokes like former tennis great John McEnroe to smash his racquet and exclaim at the top of his voice “you cannot be serious”.
So in the eight months that this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 1473 “long term losers” have run and of the 1473, only 92 have won, which means 6.25% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 93.75% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.
Across the eight months, a $1 win bet on each horse would see $1473 outlaid (113 in January, 125 in February, 156 in March, 154 in April, $240 in May, $246 in June, $207 in July and $232 in August) and the return including their $1 stake would be $921.60 ($48.50 in January, $45.50 in February, $85.00 in March, $84.00 in April, $125.50 in May, $114.90 in June, $226.80 in July and $191.40 in August, meaning a punter would get back 62.56% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 37.44% of their stake.
In the 2013 calendar year-to-date, the Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney, or Melbourne that had the biggest number of “long term losers” in it, was Race 5 at Flemington on 22/6/13. There were no fewer than 11 horses that jumped from the barriers in that field of 16 that had not won a race for 52 weeks or longer and those 11 horses and the number of months that they had been absent from the winners list were: Extra Zero (14), Utah Saints (14), Magnifique Soleil (13), Rockpecker (15), Testascana (21), By The Way (18), Blackie (27), Dash For Viz (20), Under The Hat (16), Cornwall Park (24), Dark Note (24). So those 11 horses comprised an amazing 68.75% of the 16-horse field, yet the pair that finished up running the quinella didn’t emanate from that huge group of “long term losers” and “non-achievers” – as Club Command won the race and Another Prelate ran second.
The shortest priced long term loser to get home in the calendar year-to-date was Rain Affair at $1.30. He got home in the Group 3 Missile Stakes at Randwick on 10/8/13 beating five slugs after he’d been out of the winner’s list for an incredible 16 months. You wouldn’t believe the name of the horse that ran second? Yep – website favourite Mic Mac. Let us pray.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the story on Brisbane Bloodstock boss Col Richards breeding and part-owning the first 2YO winner of the 2013/2014 racing season. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story on Suave Stuey Lombo still going to New Zealand despite a 42-metre thrashing last weekend, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Brad Bishop looks at the Turnbull Stakes.