11/12/14
On 13/11/14 on this website I advised readers that I had been gifted a copy of the 1976 book written by the late Clif Cary entitled How Professionals Bet To Win by a warm and responsive website devotee. As the book is non-copyrighted, I intend to reproduce relevant parts of it here on an as and when basis. The first article was naturally “Chapter One” – and I have put a link below to that first article for those readers who may have been on their second or third honeymoon when that article appeared – and may have missed it through being otherwise engaged.
Today I take readers to “Chapter 2B”. You might say “Where’s Chapter 2 you silly old fool” and the late Joh Bjelke-Petersen on my behalf would say, “Don’t you, don’t you worry about that. I know and you know that you can ask the questions, but I might choose not to answer them. All I’ll say is Chapter 2 will get displayed here in due course, oh ye of little faith. Rome wasn’t built in a day but it burnt down quickly when it caught on fire…..”
Clif Cary wrote:
Betting is the name of the game. It was referred to in an explanation of Connolly’s golden rules, and in other chapters. The rank and file bettors think that the be-all and end-all of racing is picking winners. Professionals are more concerned with the accepted theory of wagering which is to MAKE A PROFIT ON AN INVESTMENT whether it be on cards, dice, the stock market or in the betting ring.
Professionals and semi-professionals, seek a percentage of profit in relation to the invested dollar. When I was in America a few years ago I was introduced to one of the nation’s top pro-backers. In order to equate his betting with some of the big operators in Australia I questioned him as to the size of his wagers. He told me that had nothing to do with the matter. “My aim,” he said, “is to make my business return a clear profit after the payment of all expenses and taxation. Some years are better than others. The worst season I can remember was a gain of 3 cents on the dollar. Last year it was 14 cents and that is the best I have achieved.”
When he started to talk in terms of cents, he must have noticed my rather perplexed look because my mind was on Australians making wagers running into thousands of dollars. “Let me add,” he explained, with a smile, “that, with investments and reinvestments, my staking last year totalled more than $3 million.” I came back to reality with a bang as I mentally multiplied and came up with one hell of a lot of cents.
This is the way the wise-money men think and act. Take the case of a Sydney punter and also a bookmaker. “Melbourne Mick” Bartley does most of his wagering on daily doubles with the TAB in several States and Canberra. He has admitted that in a year his investments could total, or exceed, $4 million. If he made a profit of only 5 cents per dollar it would be a net gain of $200,000. As a bookmaker, Terry Page boasts a yearly turnover of $25 million. His expenses and taxation are very high, yet if he cleared only 1 cent on every dollar held he would be making $250,000 a year and I assume he does much better. Recently he purchased the Coogee Bay Hotel for a reported $3.5 million.
It is the percentage of profit on the invested dollar that counts and this possibility of annual gain should not be overlooked by the small punter. As pointed out in the opening chapter (refer the thread below to revisit that story) the majority of bettors lose. Many of them could become winners if they adopted the professional ploy. The difference between losing a few cents on the invested dollar and making a profit of a few cents can be very pronounced at the end of a year’s operation. Personally, for reasons explained earlier, I am a poor bettor, bit I know that those with wisdom and restraint can, and do, make racing pay.
Professionals, all along the line, think in terms of percentages. When you look at a board and see 3/1, a pro will see 25%. His mind works in that way at all times. The capable pro estimates his own price-line and he will mostly only bet on what the Americans call an “overlay”. That is when a horse’s chance is (considered) better than the price offered and even in these days of cramped markets, overlays are still available for those with the know-how and the patience to wait for them. The keen professional does not only look for a horse that is going to win – he wants one that is going to win at what he considers to be a bargain price, irrespective as to whether he is making a single wager, a multiple bet or a place investment. The keen student of form can find bargains even if he is not qualified to make his own price-line. In every respect a full understanding of the percentage table will assist him in the decision whether to bet, or not to bet.
He may, for instance, decide that Lion has a 50 per cent chance of winning and 50% is even money. If he can obtain evens, or better, then he is entitled to back his judgment; he would be going against it if he stepped out in force and laid odds–on the horse. If, for example, Lion was quoted at 2/1 on, he would, at those odds, need to possess a 66% winning chance and the wise bettor who put his chance down at 50% would not be tempted. This same thinking can be applied to multiple or place wagering. If the percentage is in your favour, the potential profit is worth the investment risk. If the percentage is against you don’t bet. This may be oversimplifying, but the gist of the point I am trying to make is there. Too many punters are under the impression that the price the bookmaker offers is the correct price in relation to chance. This is not so. The bookmaker is the seller of prices; the punter is the buyer. Don’t buy unless you consider the price to be right.
There are also two sets of bettors who make mistakes in relation to favourites which win about 33% of races, but not at the average odds good enough to enable a flat stake profit. There are people who will never back a favourite for no other reason than it is favourite. There are others who will always bet on the favourite simply because it is the favourite. Obviously both (strategies) are wrong. It has been estimated that about 22% of favourites are false favourites. If we could accurately pinpoint these, then a flat stake wager on true favourites would show a yearly profit. The wise bettor should always closely examine the favourite’s chances in relation to other runners. It is in races in which there is a false favourite that overlays exist and are ripe for the picking. A false favourite at say 6/4 pulls the bookmakers’ figures down by a massive 40%. It might even enable you to back every other runner at a profit!
PICKING THE WINNERS
As will be gleaned from what has already been written many factors have to be considered in the search for a sound betting spot. Connolly’s golden rules provide important clues. There are no short-cuts to form study. On occasions many factors have to be taken into account. Also what may apply to one race could be of little value in another.
One rule which Connolly did not mention is the DATE OF LAST START, although it has been stated that CONDITION is most important. The date of a horse’s latest run can provide some indication as to possible fitness, although it won’t be as reliable as a good look at a horse as he parades in the enclosure and moves to the starting gates. Very few horses win after a lengthy absence from racing. In any one season LESS THAN ABOUT 8 PER CENT SCORE AFTER AN ABSENCE OF LONGER THAN 28 DAYS. The vast majority of winners had their pre-win start not further back than 15 days. One cannot be dogmatic and say that consideration should only be given to runners with this late index figure. There are some horses, either not over-sound, or bad doers, who need their runs to be well spaced. The study of past performances will indicate them. However, there is no question that date of last start can be a pointer to racing fitness. On that score alone it has to be highly regarded, while percentages do show that horses in this group will provide most of the winners.
Rule 8 dealt with CLASS and ABILITY. There is no need to further emphasise. The horse must have the ability to compete in the class of race it is contesting. The exception is the young improver. The weight-for-age scale shows the improvement which can be expected in a young ‘un. This is a strong selecting factor. Along with fitness it enables us to reduce the chances in a field. Often a race can be cut down to only a few contenders and there can be further reductions if we apply the consistency factor. IT IS BY DISCARDING THE LIKELY LOSERS THAT WE FIND THE PROBABLE WINNERS.
Elimination is a powerful means of selecting. We don’t want our money on slow or unpredictable horses. We don’t want to bet on animals which are not likely to be at their physical best for a top effort, nor do we wish to back runners which are attempting a class of race which all past evidence suggests is beyond them. At all times the aim must be to avoid the obvious BAD OR DOUBTFUL BET.
Connolly put forth further arguments which will help in the elimination process, while an understanding of weights will often point to the best of those which remain for final consideration. Apply the factors and BE WITH THE STRENGTH, and the strength is not always the favourite.
It is by eliminating the losers that we take a positive step to finding the probable winners. Then, by backing the contenders in suitable races we are reducing the odds against ourselves as much as possible. When the occasion arises we are in a position to step out in force. Memorise this paragraph. It is a maxim to which all the successful professional bettors have subscribed. By reducing the odds against losing, we automatically improve our chances of winning.
The Chapter One article from Clif Cary’s book “How Professionals Bet To Win” can be read on this thread:
https://www.justracing.com.au/index.php?news_page=2&artid=4701&catid=52
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there is the second and final montage of photos from Doomben last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story on harness racing, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls pens an interesting story on the racing and sporting media in Australia.
