14/10/15
I thought the big 10-race card from Caulfield last Saturday, which included four Group 1 races, would give me a good barometer to be able to pen yet another interesting article for website visitors.
So last Friday night at 9.30pm I went to the Internet and printed off the Ubet fixed odds prices that were available on each of the 10 races at that time.
Obviously there were scratchings already from the acceptances taken a couple of days before, so those horses were taken out of the market already. Further scratchings that were notified between 9.30pm Friday night and scratching deadline time on Saturday morning, gave rise to the possibility of deductions, but there were only three additional scratchings in that timeframe and they were Miss Gidget and Little Indian Race 4 – $13 and $16 respectively on Ubet and Soosa Rama Race 10 – $81 on Ubet, so it’s taken as read that those particular horses being scratched would have no major affect on the market due to the price that they were at the time each was scratched.
So below is the displayed Ubet market Friday night at 9.30pm, along with what transpired at the Caulfield track on race day (Saturday) in terms of the “top fluc” (top fluctuation) of each runner, as well as the SP (starting price) on each runner.
HORSE
UBET
TOP FLUC
SP
MR1
Fontein Lad
51.00
81.00
81.00
Highland Beat
8.00
13.00
12.00
Preemptive
35.00
81.00
81.00
Terindah
8.50
10.00
9.00
Thar
4.20
6.00
6.00
Valliano
20.00
31.00
31.00
Flying Jess
3.80
3.80
3.80
Literate
28.00
51.00
31.00
Magical Milly
7.50
8.00
7.50
Missrock
25.00
26.00
26.00
Pearl Congenial
4.80
4.80
4.60
Thomasina
26.00
41.00
31.00
COMMENT: So Race 1 had 12 starters and 10 of the 12 starters or 83.33% of the entire field were a better price Saturday at the track, whilst the other two (Flying Jess and Pearl Congenial) were the same “Top Fluc” Saturday on course at Caulfield, as was available Friday night on Ubet.
HORSE
UBET
TOP FLUC
SP
MR2
Lankan Rupee
1.30
1.60
1.50
Shiraz
5.50
6.00
5.50
The Monstar
61.00
61.00
31.00
Cashed
51.00
101.00
61.00
Alpha Miss
7.50
7.50
7.50
I Love It
17.00
21.00
16.00
COMMENT: In this race four of the six starters (66.66%) were a better price Saturday at Caulfield. The Monstar ($61) and Alpha Miss ($7.50) were the same “top fluc” Saturday as the Friday night Ubet price.
HORSE
UBET
TOP FLUC
SP
MR3
Harlem River
3.90
4.00
4.00
Serenade
10.00
8.00
7.50
Miss Gidget
13.00
Scr
Scr
Secret Agenda
4.60
5.00
4.60
Viddora
10.00
12.00
12.00
Invincible Heart
10.00
12.00
7.00
Serene Majesty
9.00
12.00
11.00
Irada
15.00
15.00
15.00
Cocoa Doll
11.00
16.00
13.00
Northern Model
21.00
18.00
17.00
Little Indian
16.00
Scr
Scr
COMMENT: In this event six of the nine starters (66.66%) were a better price Saturday afternoon, even after the two scratchings on Saturday morning at scratching deadline time (Miss Gidget and Little Indian), whilst both Serenade and Northern Model were a better price Friday night on Ubet and $15 chance Irada, was the same price on both days.
HORSE
UBET
TOP FLUC
SP
MR4
Amovatio
4.80
6.00
6.00
The Bowler
3.20
4.40
4.40
Good Value
8.00
8.50
7.50
Richie’s Vibe
9.50
10.00
9.50
Streets Away
26.00
31.00
21.00
Mecir
9.50
12.00
12.00
Eximus
26.00
31.00
21.00
Pago Rock
11.00
8.00
8.00
Tristram’s Sun
5.50
6.00
5.50
COMMENT: In this nine-horse field, yet again every horse had better odds bet about their chances Saturday afternoon, as opposed to what was available on Friday night, except for Pago Rock which was $11 Friday night but only $8 Saturday afternoon. So 88.89% of the field were a better price Saturday afternoon at Caulfield.
HORSE
UBET
TOP FLUC
SP
MR5
Prince of Penzance
13.00
15.00
10.00
Sertorius
13.00
12.00
9.00
Amralah
3.30
4.00
3.60
Escado
18.00
26.00
26.00
Excess Knowledge
6.00
7.50
5.00
Bondeiger
11.00
12.00
12.00
Ethiopia
26.00
26.00
26.00
Black Tomahawk
18.00
16.00
13.00
Bohemian Lily
4.60
6.50
6.50
Albonetti
13.00
21.00
21.00
At First Sight
14.00
26.00
26.00
Mister Impatience
101.00
151.00
151.00
Bikila
51.00
51.00
51.00
COMMENT: 13 horses raced here and all were a better price Saturday afternoon, except for Sertorius ($13 Friday night – $12 Saturday top fluc) and two roughies Ethiopia ($26) and Bikila ($51) which were the same price both days. So 10 of the 13 runners (76.92%) were a better price Saturday afternoon on course.
HORSE
UBET
TOP FLUC
SP
MR6
Criterion
7.00
8.50
7.50
Fawkner
4.20
4.20
4.20
Happy Trails
12.00
16.00
16.00
Contributer
8.50
10.00
9.50
Pornichet
6.50
6.50
6.50
Entirely Platinum
35.00
31.00
26.00
Kermadec
3.10
3.80
3.50
Mongolian Khan
10.00
13.00
13.00
COMMENT: In the 2015 Caulfield Stakes, eight horses went to the barrier and every horse was a bigger price Saturday except for Fawkner ($4.20 both days), Pornichet ($6.50 both days) and roughie Entirely Platinum ($35 Friday night versus $31 top fluc Saturday). So in summary, five of the eight horses (62.50%) were a better price Saturday afternoon.
HORSE
UBET
TOP FLUC
SP
MR7
Lucky Hussler
5.00
6.00
6.00
Stratum Star
7.00
8.00
8.00
Leebaz
71.00
61.00
41.00
Strawberry Boy
14.00
20.00
20.00
Ninth Legion
18.00
21.00
21.00
Puccini
81.00
101.00
71.00
Disposition
5.00
5.50
5.00
Kenjorwood
17.00
17.00
17.00
Flamingo Star
19.00
21.00
21.00
Hi World
15.00
14.00
13.00
Hopfgarten
17.00
18.00
18.00
Noble Protector
11.00
12.00
12.00
Jacquinot Bay
26.00
31.00
31.00
Abidewithme
13.00
11.00
11.00
Akavoroun
26.00
26.00
19.00
Rhythm To Spare
51.00
61.00
61.00
Moonovermanhattan
61.00
81.00
81.00
COMMENT: In the Group 1 Toorak Handicap, in the 17-horse field, all horses were a bigger price Saturday afternoon except for bolter Leebaz ($71 Friday night versus $61 Saturday), Kenjorwood ($17 both days), Hi World ($15 Friday night and $14 Saturday), Abidewithme ($13 Friday night, $11 Saturday) and Akavoroun ($26 best price both days). So in summary, 12 of the 17 horses (70.59%) were a better price Saturday afternoon at Caulfield.
HORSE
UBET
TOP FLUC
SP
MR8
Pasadena Girl
4.40
4.00
4.00
Miss Gunpowder
6.00
7.00
7.00
Sagaronne
17.00
21.00
21.00
Jameka
8.00
8.50
8.50
Take Pride
18.00
17.00
15.00
Badawiya
5.50
6.00
5.50
Stay With Me
5.00
8.50
8.00
Payroll
17.00
15.00
14.00
Alaskan Rose
31.00
31.00
26.00
Super Cash
17.00
19.00
17.00
Don’t Doubt Marley
35.00
91.00
91.00
COMMENT: Of the 11 fillies that contested the Thousand Guineas, Pasadena Girl was 40 cents better Friday night than was available Saturday, Take Pride was one point better Friday night, Payroll was two points better Friday night and Alaskan Rose was $31 both days. Interestingly the easy winner, Stay With Me, was a massive $3.50 better on Saturday on a “top fluc” basis – $8.50 versus $5 Friday night and she was $3 better SP, as opposed to what was on offer Friday night at Ubet. So in summary in this race, seven of the 11 starters, or 63.64%, were a better price on course Saturday.
HORSE
UBET
TOP FLUC
SP
MR9
Press Statement
2.60
2.80
2.50
Odyssey Moon
61.00
61.00
51.00
Ready For Victory
8.00
11.00
11.00
Rageese
41.00
41.00
41.00
Dal Cielo
9.50
12.00
12.00
Bon Aurum
15.00
11.00
11.00
Shards
19.00
26.00
26.00
Sovereign Nation
17.00
26.00
21.00
Bassett
12.00
11.00
9.00
Last Bullet
20.00
21.00
21.00
Lizard Island
26.00
21.00
19.00
Kentucky Flyer
81.00
81.00
81.00
Tarzino
13.00
17.00
17.00
Snoopy
35.00
41.00
26.00
Tulsa
12.00
12.00
12.00
More Than Most
151.00
101.00
101.00
Mr Individual
51.00
Scr
Scr
COMMENT: Of the 17 starters in the Caulfield Guineas, six roughies were either the same price or better on Friday night at Ubet as opposed to Saturday on course. Rageese was $41 both days, Bon Aurum was $15 Friday night but only $11 Saturday, Bassett was one point better than top fluc Friday night), Lizard Island was $26 Friday night but $19 top fluc Saturday, Kentucky Flyer was $81 both days and Tulsa was $12 on both days. So in summary – 11 of the 17 starters (64.70%) were a better price on course Saturday.
HORSE
UBET
TOP FLUC
SP
MR10
In Style
10.00
9.00
9.00
Bring Me The Maid
6.00
9.00
8.00
Wawail
4.60
6.00
6.00
Politeness
3.30
3.70
3.50
Ygritte
9.00
14.00
13.00
Danestroem
17.00
19.00
18.00
Soosa Rama
81.00
Scr
Scr
Tahni Dancer
26.00
31.00
31.00
Catch That Cat
26.00
26.00
21.00
Matilija
13.00
16.00
14.00
Exclusive Lass
8.50
9.00
8.00
COMMENT: So from this last race, of the 11 starters only one horse (In Style) was a better price Friday night ($10 versus $9 on Saturday afternoon on course). So in summary of this race 10, of the 11 starters (90.91%) were a better price Saturday afternoon at Caulfield.
In summary of the aforesaid 10 races there are 111 horses priced across the three entities of Ubet fixed odds, top fluc or SP. Ubet were the best price on 15 of the 111 horses or 13.51% of the time and one interesting point I noted here was that 14 of those 15 better prices (93.33%) that Ubet offered, were on horses that were priced at $10 inclusive or higher, so those particular horses controlled a very minor share of the market. Top fluc offered the best price 37 of the 111 prices (33.33%), whilst SP is not applicable, as obviously SP could never exceed top fluc. But top fluc can certainly exceed SP and in what I thought was an astonishing 55 times across the 111 horses (49.55%), top fluc did exceed SP – so I reiterate that in an incredible 49.55% of the time, top fluc offered a better price than SP.
So on the entire day’s racing I’ve reviewed the prices of the 111 horses that started at the meeting and it’s a no brainer by looking at the prices, that backing a horse “top fluc” was the most financially astute way to go to get the best price available. That’s amazing as that’s exactly what the former big punter “The Fireman” Eddie Birchley told me when I first did his exclusive biography on this website way back on 16/11/2004. It seems the more things change, the more things remain the same.
Well things have changed a bit since 2004 and now to maximise their return, a punter needs to be able to bet on a “best of three totes or top fluc” basis on a Saturday afternoon, as they won’t get such options on provincial or mid-week meetings. If he or she is betting any other way they are costing themselves money, for you can see here by my research how much a punter would be able to cost their wallet by even betting “best of three totes and SP” as so many times SP is under “top fluc”.
Please note that in the above quoted prices, whilst I used Ubet fixed win odds, the same scenario would have no doubt unfolded irrespective of the fixed odds outlet that I used on Friday night.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the first montage of photos from Doomben last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s a breeding story, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au there’s also a breeding story.