EXCLUSIVE: WHAT IMPACT DOES WHIP USE HAVE ON AUSTRALIAN THOROUGHBRED RACING….Part 2

31/12/15

As this is the last story that will go up on this website until next Monday (4/1/16) when rails bookmaker Lindsay Gallagher’s betting ring report from the Caloundra meeting next Saturday will go up here, let me take this opportunity to wish all those who take the time to read the website stories throughout the year a safe, happy and healthy 2016. With the Justracing website set to enter its twentieth year in 2016, myself and other writers like Bernard Kenny and David Clarkson again look forward to bringing readers a vast array of stories that they will hopefully find educational. And from a personal perspective, I will also try to give readers a laugh as often as possible, given the fact that 1) we are all such a long time dead and 2) medical research suggests a laugh will help us live longer.

Yesterday in Part 1 of this exclusive whip use thriller, I concluded that from the 47 races that were researched from Saturday city meetings conducted along the eastern seaboard in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne across the dates of 19/12/15 and 26/12/15 that in 33 of those 47 races – or 70.21% of the time – it wouldn’t have mattered whether the jockey carried a whip or not, as the race result in respect of the first two horses across the finish line would have been exactly the same. It was noted in Part 1 of this story that no Melbourne meeting (Flemington) was held on 19/12/15 due to the heatwave that hit Victoria on the day.

So as promised yesterday, here are the results for the other two Saturdays since the whip laws came in 1/12/15 from the 12/12/15 and 5/12/15 meetings:

MEETING/DATE/ RATING

HORSES THAT FINISHED

FIRST AND SECOND

WINNING MARGIN

WHIP MAKE DIFFERENCE

(Yes/No/Maybe)

Doomben

Tangara/Tints

4.25 lengths

N

12/12/15

Jopa/Don’t Tease Me

3.25 lengths

N

Soft

Mister Booze/Glendara

Nose

M

 

Sundance/Par Oneri

4.75 lengths

N

 

Zelady’s Night Out/Royal Tithe

2.25 lengths

N

 

Tina Melina/Zaha’s Ace

2.50 lengths

N

 

Sold For Song/La Dolce Vita

1.25 lengths

N

 

Fontelina/Saluter

1.75 lengths

N

 

Glorious Red/Kiss Me Deadly

1.75 lengths

N

Randwick

Rule The River/In A Wink

1.25 lengths

N

12/12/15

Pera Pera/Shutter Bug

Dead heat

M

Good

Extreme Choice/So Serene

2 lengths

N

 

Mr Entertainer/Disgraceful

Short neck

N

 

Sir John Hawkwood/Jiayuguan

Half neck

M

 

Lady Sniper/Hellbent

Neck

N

 

Happy Clapper/Tinto

1 length

N

 

Cradle Me/Aussies Love Sport

Long neck

N

 

Caped Crusader/Magical Stance

Head

M

Flemington

Shakespearean Lass/Tykiato

1.75 lengths

N

12/12/15

A Lotta Love/Mihany

1.25 lengths

N

Good

Tyrannize/Antelucan

1 length

N

 

Precious Gem/Burning Front

0.75 length

N

 

Longeron/Straight Jacket

0.75 length

N

 

Crimson Cape/Flying Light

0.75 length

N

 

Tashbeeh/Sadaqa

0.75 length

N

 

Durendal/Sarajevo

1 length

N

 

Felicienne/Sabor A Triunfo

1 length

N

Doomben

Nikitas/Mishani Silva

4.75 lengths

N

5/12/15

Volkhere/Uno Five

Neck

N

Good/Firm

Cashing Up/Kuttamurra Al

Neck

N

 

Honey Holt/Hesitation

0.75 length

N

 

Gojo Mimo/Scenic Road

3.25 lengths

N

 

Gold Horizon/Mercurian

Short neck

M

 

Slots/Real Surreal

1 length

N

 

Traveston Girl/Hopfgarten

Half head

M

 

Britaila Kate/Profiler

Short half head

M

Randwick

Astern/Niccolance

2.5 lengths

N

5/12/15

Torgersen/Tarquin

Short head

M

Good

Diamondsinthenight/Kontiki Dane

Short head

M

 

Star Shaft/Northern Fury

0.75 length

N

 

Medcaut/Zin Zan Eddie

Head

M

 

Fitou/La Speciale

Nose

M

 

Felines/Mahican

1.25 lengths

N

 

Caped Crusader/Mary Lou

Head

M

 

Bachman/Hieroglyphics

0.75 length

N

Sandown Hillside

Vostok/Net Wealth

2 lengths

N

5/12/15

Electric Fusion/Black Jag

Long neck

N

Good

Lucques/Tarangower

Short neck

N

 

Danestroem/Anaphora

0.75 length

N

 

Distant Rock/Kincaple Chief

1 length

N

 

Cool Snitzel/Heatherly

1.75 lengths

N

 

Wild Rain/Office Bearer

1.75 lengths

N

 

Del Prado/Taddei Tondo

1.75 lengths

N

 

Sammy The Snake/Maharaaj

Short neck

M

 

So across these two Saturdays a total of 54 races were run across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne and of those 54 races, I deemed the whip may have had an impact on the result of 13 of the 54 races (24.07%) so alternatively it wasn’t a factor in 41 of the 54 races or 75.93%.

A couple of narrow margins across those two days where the whip played no part in my opinion were when Mr Entertainer beat Disgraceful by a short neck at Randwick in Race 4 on 13/12/15 as two-kilo claiming apprentice Koby Jennings rode the winner and fully-fledged Jason Collett rode the second horse, Disgraceful. I also deemed Tarangower had all week to run down Lucques at Sandown Hillside on 5/12/15 in Race 3, as both were ridden by senior jockeys – Chris Symons on Lucques and Dwayne Dunn rode Tarangower.

Again as happened in Part 1 of this story yesterday, across these two Saturday Sydney meetings that capital city continued to seemingly have what I’d call “an abnormally high number of photo finishes” – 11 of 18 across these two meetings – or 61.11% of all races.

So between yesterday’s story and today’s story my research revealed that whip use had no impact whatsoever on 74 of 101 races (33 of 47 yesterday in Part 1 and 41 of 54 today in Part 2) so in 73.26% of all races run, whip use had no impact because of the beaten margin and/or other circumstances as outlined in the associated text of each story.

By then breaking up that overall whip use figure into a State-by-State analysis, interestingly I can conclude that “whip use played virtually no part in the result of Brisbane races” as across the four Saturdays since the new whip laws came in on 1/12/15, I felt that only six close finishes in 37 total races run or 16.22% could have had a reliance on whip use, meaning whip use had no effect on 83.78% of all races. Those “six close finishes” were – working backwards from last Saturday – Bachman beating Le Val on 26/12/15 by a long head, Eagle Way beating Charcuterie on 19/12/15 by a nose, Mister Booze beating Glendara by a nose on 12/12/15 and three from 5/12/15 – namely Gold Horizon beating Mercurian a short neck, Traveston Girl beating Hopfgarten by a half a head and Britaila Kate beating Profiler by a short half head.

In Melbourne from 28 races run across the three Saturdays (remember the 19/12/15 Flemington meeting was abandoned) only in five close finishes – or 17.86% – could whip use have had an effect on the outcome of the race in my opinion, meaning whip use had no effect on the outcome of 82.14% of all Melbourne races run. The “five close finishes” where I deemed whip use may have had an effect were, working backwards from last Saturday where there were four, namely Danestroem beating Anaphora by a short half head, Tuscan Sling beating Reldas by a short half head, Signoff beating Lidari by a neck and Volcanic Ash beating Duke of Brunswick by a nose, along with one from Sandown on 5/12/15, when Sammy The Snake beat Maharaaj by a short neck.

So cumulatively across those two jurisdictions of Brisbane and Melbourne the venues had 65 races run (19/12/15 Flemington meeting was abandoned) and whip use may have played a role in 11 of them (16.92% – six in Brisbane and five in Melbourne as noted above), or alternatively the whip played no part whatsoever in a staggering 83.08% of all race results.

In Sydney however due to what surely would have to be what I’d call “an abnormally high number of photo finishes” over the four Saturdays since the new whip laws came in on 1/12/15 a total of 36 races were run and of those 36 races an incredible 16, or 44.44%, had close finishes where it could be deemed whip use played a factor, so only 55.56% of all races in Sydney could be deemed not to have been affected by whip use.

What I then did was go back on the results of the previous two Saturdays of Sydney racing when the old whip rules were still in place (21/11/15 and 28/11/15) to see what the winning margins were on those two days. At the Rosehill meeting (good track) on 28/11/15 the winning margins in racebook order in the nine races were: a half neck, 1.75 lengths, 1.5 lengths, long neck, half length, 1.25 lengths, half length, long head and nose – so again four of the nine races (44.44%) were photo finish results.

On 21/11/15 at the Rosehill meeting (good track) the winning margin in the nine races were, in race order, a half head, a half neck, a short half head, half length, short neck, 2.5 lengths, 2 lengths, a long head and 2 lengths. So again on this day five of the nine races (55.55%) were won in a photo.

So after researching the result of every “Saturday city race” run along the eastern seaboard of Australia since the new whip laws were introduced into Australian thoroughbred racing on 1 December 2015, I’ve concluded that “whip use – or lack thereof – has virtually no effect on Saturday city thoroughbred racing in Brisbane or Melbourne, but it may have an impact on Sydney Saturday racing, due to the abnormally high number of photo finish results there, in that timeframe, comparative to Brisbane and Melbourne”.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s are a couple of stories – firstly on a new import to the Chris Waller stable. The horse may lose a leg or grow one in Australia – your call – and secondly there’s a story on the big Parkes harness meeting this evening, which doubles as that club’s biggest meeting of the season annually.

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