HOW TO PUNT SUCCESSFULLY IN WEIGHT FOR AGE RACES EXPLAINED – AND THE TROOPS IN THE FAR NORTH AREN’T HAPPY WITH RACING QUEENSLAND

29/10/14

The TAB price that Tasmanian trained galloper The Cleaner finalized at in the Cox Plate last Saturday at Moonee Valley served as a ringing endorsement yet again at what non-thinkers and followers, TAB punters really are. The horse finalised – as per the main photo – on the three main totes around Australia, yet he started officially at $15 with on-course bookmakers, so all the dills that blindly backed the horse on Tattsbet took just over 6/1 about a 14/1 chance in the betting ring. Taking that degree of unders is so dumb that it actually defies belief. No doubt the massive TAB support came primarily as a result of the horse being hyped up throughout all forms of the media to the point where he attracted such a ridiculous amount of support that it was just an embarrassment.

Prior to the race it should have been easy for even a beginner punter to know that the horse was no hope as he’d never even started in a Group 1 race in his 43 starts before the 2014 Cox Plate. Wouldn’t it be logical to suggest that if a horse was a genuine Group 1 horse, that he might actually start in a Group 1 race sometime before start number 43?

I acknowledge that The Cleaner has a bit of a cult following, so that would help explain his short and nonsensical price and naturally after the race that “nonsensical price” didn’t get a mention by those who had fanned the bushfire of support via their writing and/or talking the horse up as a potential new Might And Power or Vo Rogue, or one of these wondrous front running staying type horses that in reality only come along about as often as Halley’s Comet.

That the media play an amazing role in hyping horses and/or tipping horses – was no more apparent than when it seems the whole world wanted to tell you as soon as fields came out that Miss Cover Girl in Doomben Race 5 was pretty much a good thing. She opened up ridiculously short on the totes around Australia, as short as odds on, yet on course Amizade, which had beaten Miss Cover Girl in pointlessly at their previous encounter 14 days earlier was the heavily backed favourite with bookmakers, as Miss Cover Girl blew in the market with on course bookmakers – and never looked likely to run a place.

Another point that punters should be aware of – and obviously the vast majority aren’t – is that “many horses cannot carry weight”. The older punters would well remember Welter Handicaps run in Sydney as having big fields, with top class horses seemingly being asked to carry the grandstand. Yet as per historical race day results of yesteryear that I’ve put up here occasionally in the past, the topweight would often still win the race. My conclusion is that “modern day thoroughbreds are pretty much sooks and can’t carry weight”. This is particularly so in weight-for-age (WFA) racing and is extremely important for punters to understand. Put simply just because a horse is in a WFA race doesn’t mean it will be able to carry the allotted weight. Historically in the annals of thoroughbred history you will hear someone say “he’s a great WFA age horse” and they are often “a great WFA horse” simply because they can do something that most of the other horses engaged in the race cannot do – namely carry weight. It’s a topic I have been meaning to educate punters who want to learn (some don’t need to learn – they already know it all) about the topic for ages, so whilst it’s fresh in my mind, let’s go back and reflect on the WFA race run at Moonee Valley last Friday night and Saturday afternoon as a guide.

On Friday night the Group 1 Manikato Stakes was run. It finished up an exciting race to watch with basically the entire field hitting the line as one, with officially less than 1.75 lengths covering 10 of the 12 runners on the line. It was a sprint race over 1200 metres and as I’ve written educational stories on the topic before “weight is irrelevant in sprint races up to and including 1200 metres”, so take no notice of WFA weights in sprint races up to 1200 metres. It’s irrelevant if Lankan Rupee has 58.5kgs and a hopeful two-year-old has 46kgs or whatever as nine times out of 10 in WFA sprint racing, the higher weighted horses beat the young ones in pointlessly. Even in handicap racing weights are irrelevant up to and including 1200 metres as I’ve proven numerous times. And again last Saturday Love Rocks, originally handicapped with the grandstand weight of 62.5kgs, but getting three kilos off in the race for an apprentice, never looked in danger of defeat from a cumulative group of cats that had much less weight than him. And to add to the woes of the beaten brigade, Love Rocks was first up for 44 weeks.

Once you get past 1201 metres though it is my considered opinion that “the goal posts change dramatically” and weights being carried in WFA races suddenly comes to the fore, hence you often see the same horse winning time and again – like say in recent times, the Peter Moody trained Dissident. He won the WFA Memsie Stakes, then he won the WFA Makybe Diva and then he got beaten a wart in a deceptive photo in the Sir Rupert Clarke at WFA. He’s what I’d call “not much good” in terms of horses I’ve seen in my lifetime, but he fits the WFA topliner profile perfectly, as all he has to do to have the “WFA topliner profile” is obviously 1) have some measure of natural ability to start with, 2) be able to sit up on the pace as WFA races are historically run slower than a wet week in Tully and 3) be able to carry weight. Many horses have 1) and 2) yet 3) is strangely clearly beyond them.

As a guide to that aforesaid statement, last Saturday it seemed everyone except myself thought that Akavoroun was a winning chance in the Group 2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley. It’s history now that the race was won in near track record time by Hooked. Yet due to the fact that the race was being run at weight-for-age (WFA), Akavoroun had no option whatsoever but to carry 59kgs. In my opinion, he was no hope – as he’d been incapable of winning a race at his previous three starts with a mere 53kgs, 52kgs and 54.5kgs. If he can’t carry those three weights to win Group races, how the hell was he going to carry up to 7kgs more than he’d carried at his previous three starts and win? Additionally he’d never started in a WFA race, so he was sailing in unchartered waters before he started. Always remember that until you have climbed Mount Everest – you haven’t. Don’t assume just because you can climb the Glasshouse Mountains that you can climb Mount Everest. Don’t assume that a horse that finishes strongly over 1600 metres will automatically run 1800 or 2000 metres strongly. Don’t assume because a horse wins a race at Eagle Farm by 10 lengths on a heavy 10 track that it will handle a slow 7 track at Randwick – and so on and so forth. So my message to punters is clear: “Back proven WFA horses in WFA races”. Don’t assume the new kid on the block will automatically carry weight. You’re better off taking 6/4 when that new kid has proven he can carry weight, rather than taking 6/1 on a wing and a prayer that he will. That’s why bookies are fat and rich – most punters are non thinkers – they assume. And as the saying goes “an assumption is a monumental **** up”.

So back to the score at the Test and by contrast last Saturday in Akavoroun’s race, the winner, Hooked, had 58.5kgs to lump, but last season he’d been placed in Group 1 races like the $2 million Australian Derby in an 18-horse field with 56.5kgs on 12/4/14 on a heavy 9 track, so he must have lumped that weight through the mud okay that day, to allow him to be placed, so therefore it was logical that six months later – as a bigger, more seasoned and stronger horse – that he would have no problem carrying an extra two kilos over 800 metres less and win the Crystal Vase.

So when betting in WFA races, always check back on a debut WFA runner’s CV to see if the horse you are looking at can carry weight – as you can take it from me that a hell of a lot can’t.

To save copping emails and for the public record, this is what I told my Saturday Morning Mail clients on the chances of both The Cleaner and Akavoroun last Saturday:

THE CLEANER

Going for four wins in a row and will run them along, which will be good, as we’ll soon find out what horses will run out 2040 metres strongly and which ones can’t. In my opinion he hasn’t got the class to win a Cox Plate as he’s never even started at Group 1 level in his 43 starts to date.

AKAVOROUN

Probably should have won for us at big odds last start when Payne took him around the track three wide the trip but he jumps 6kgs here, so I can’t have him at WFA. Winkers go on again today.

 

And it was brought to my attention by local Cairns racing enthusiast Graham “Spider” Webb that there was a very interesting article penned in his local paper the other day, The Cairns Post, by journalist Rhys O’Neill and whilst all the licensees in South-East Queensland seem reasonably happy with their lot, that is far from the case in North Queensland where quite a large group of Racing Queensland licensees got together to be interviewed by the local paper over problems that have beset the industry locally. Their points are obviously valid and from the heart – and the article makes for interesting reading. It can be accessed on this thread:

http://www.cairnspost.com.au/sport/local-sport/far-norths-bread-and-butter-racing-figures-demand-a-better-deal/story-fnjpuwsz-1227100746028

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the popular What’s In A Name segment from last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story on all the award winners from HRNSW awards night, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls catches up with one of the part owners of Melbourne Cup hopeful Brambles.

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