21/10/15
I have to have a giggle at how so many “experts” in thoroughbred racing get so many free plugs all the time in mainstream media – particularly in these big Carnivals that happen along the eastern seaboard throughout the year, in the lead up to the big Group 1 races being run. Suffice to say it often makes good reading just going back and seeing the hopelessly incorrect statements that were made. But being “hopelessly incorrect” regularly doesn’t seem to matter, as most entities simply get them back to see if they can get it right the next time.
The famous “they” in racing radio, racing television and newspapers seem to have an “expert” for this aspect and an expert for that aspect. In fact in thoroughbred racing, as an outsider looking in, the world is so full of “experts” that it’s the wonder all bookmakers haven’t been sent to the wall long ago.
I guess the reason that bookies haven’t been sent to the wall is that thoroughbred racing already has about 647 variables and all those variables work for the bookie – and that “647” figure was before we introduced the latest two variables into the equation and those two, which take the tally by my reckoning to 649, are firstly “experts having their say publicly all over the place” and secondly “overseas horses which are usually proven to be slower than a wet week in Tully that we can’t line up with our own horses”.
And so it came to pass that last Saturday, next Saturday and the first Tuesday in November, we will have the three most important races run annually in Australia to dissect. Last Saturday was the Caulfield Cup, next Saturday is the Cox Plate and the first Tuesday in November is Melbourne Cup day.
I often write here that “information overload” is what totally mentally stuffs punters and leaves them mentally fried. Put simply, we just need to forget most of what we hear, see and read in mainstream media. To that end, I always suggest we keep the “KISS theory” foremost in our mind when selecting horses to back – and of course the KISS theory is “keep it simple stupid.”
So by keeping everything nice and “simple” and not trying to have a stack of tips in the race, I was able to conclude that the Caulfield Cup had only “three possible winning chances”. I have never seen one of the overseas horses that were in the Caulfield Cup race in their home country, even on television, as by keeping it “simple,” their home country isn’t Australia. So the race conditions, field size, track shape and undulation and track rating are probably totally different between different countries like England and Australia and Japan and Australia and so on, so if that’s the case, why is it all relevant to Caulfield, Moonee Valley or Flemington in a Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate or Melbourne Cup respectively? Do they artificially water tracks overseas like we do in Australia? Again who cares, it’s all irrelevant what happens overseas if the race meeting is in Australia. I see in the form from English trained horses that raced in the Caulfield Cup last Saturday, that in weight-for-age in England, horses carry more weight at weight-for-age than they do in Australia when they are the same age and gender. Wonder why that is? Again who cares, but it would at least be more interesting to know the answer to that question than trolling through half a page on what some “expert” thinks – who is generally proven with the passage of time to be wrong anyway.
So this is what an old geriatric 60-year-old bloke without any “expert” qualifications whatsoever, but who has spent a lifetime following thoroughbred racing and therefore sports a “degree in the school of hard knocks” and can understand a form guide, could come up with for his Saturday Morning Mail clients last Saturday morning in their 9am race day email on the Caulfield Cup:
CAULFIELD Race 9 – 5:40PM GROUP 1 CAULFIELD CUP (2400 METRES)
HORSE
COMMENT
PROTECTIONIST
His only win in the last 13 months was 49 weeks ago in the Melbourne Cup, so I couldn’t have him here. Winkers go on for the first time today.
SNOW SKY
Group 2 winner twice in very slow overall time in England in May and June of this year, so I couldn’t have him here first-up at 2400m.
FAME GAME
Has only started four times in the last 54 weeks and he’s won two races in Tokyo easily over 2500m and 3400m in that timeframe and he got beaten last start by a neck in a Group 1 $2.9million race, so he’s obviously a top class racehorse and should be hard to beat from the 1 alley with Purton flying in to ride and of course Purton won this race on Admire Rakti last year, so they’d have to be total idiots to bring a horse out that wouldn’t be competitive. Crossover noseband goes on for the first time today.
OUR IVANHOWE
Hasn’t won a race anywhere for the last 50 weeks and races with glue-on shoes, so the Melbourne Cup is probably more his go as there’s no gear change here to remove the glue-on shoes.
HOKKO BRAVE
Japanese visitor that hasn’t won a race anywhere for over 24 months. Has a horror barrier, so prefer the other Japanese horse – Fame Game.
MONGOLIAN KHAN
Ran a nice third to Criterion in the Caulfield Stakes last Saturday at WFA and if he handles the 7-day back-up, which he’s untested at along with the good track (only won 2 of 7 on good but 5 of 5 on soft), he’s the horse they have to beat.
TRIP TO PARIS
Won the Ascot Gold Cup three starts back over 4023m at WFA but I couldn’t have him resuming after an 8-week let-up. Winkers come off for the first time today.
WHO SHOT THEBARMAN
Unplaced at his three starts since resuming from 21 weeks off and he hasn’t won for over 12 months, so I couldn’t have him here.
GRAND MARSHAL
Sydney Cup winner in April this year but he’s not up to these horses.
ROYAL DESCENT
She’s only won one race in the last 29 months and that was on 22/8/15. Not for me.
VOLKSTOK‘N’BARRELL
Has been the dog chasing his tail at four runs back from a spell, as if he’s always one run short, but he’s also been ridden stupidly at his last three starts. Blinkers come off for the first time today and the trainer has stated in a radio interview that the horse will be ridden quieter today, so I’d include him in all exotics as he has plenty of 2400-metre form around the favourite Mongolian Khan, yet he’s 25/1 and Mongolian Khan is 7/2.
HAURAKI
Split Mongolian Khan and Volkstok’N’Barrell in the Australian Derby in Sydney before spelling on an unsuitable soft 7 track, then ran a ripper of a race when he was backed late to beat his stablemate Complacent last start in the Craven Plate at Randwick. Awfully hard to beat on his favourite good going if he handles this way of going.
LUCIA VALENTINA
Hasn’t won a race anywhere for the last 12 months nor has she been placed in her last five starts – so no. Blinkers come off for the first time today.
RISING ROMANCE
Her only win in the last 17 months was in a $30K race in New Zealand but she ran second in this race last year beaten a long neck, so she’s a chance from the good alley.
MAGICOOL
Unplaced at all four starts this time back, so he’s impossible to have.
GUST OF WIND
Has only started eight times and is a Group 1 winner trouncing Winx in the Australian Oaks in April on a soft 7 track. Her two Melbourne runs have both been okay and today is d-day for her at this level but I’d include her in all exotics as I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s in the finish.
SET SQUARE
I thought she had her chance in the Turnbull Stakes 13 days ago and couldn’t have her running a strong 2400 today off that plodding 2000m effort.
MAGNAPAL
Was going for four wins in a row when beaten a short head at Moonee Valley 15 days ago but he’s outclassed here to my way of thinking.
QUEST FOR MORE
SCRATCHED.
COMPLACENT
SCRATCHED.
DIBAYANI
SCRATCHED.
MAGIC HURRICANE
SCRATCHED.
Additional comments: I think the 2015 Caulfield Cup is very low on winning chances and to that end I can only see three possible winning hopes and they are, in racebook order – Fame Game, Mongolian Khan and Hauraki – and I’d back Mongolian Khan each way.
And furthermore Mongolian Khan was also advised later in their report as a “best bet” of the day on an each way basis at the Caulfield meeting.
And still working on the “KISS theory,” punters in Carnival time can win good money for very little financial outlay if they concentrate in betting on races like the Caulfield Cup, which have primarily three chances.
To that end, here’s my Saturday Morning Mail preview of Race 6 at Caulfield last Saturday and there’s big money in the three names that are mentioned at the bottom:
CAULFIELD Race 6 – 3:45PM GROUP 3 DAVID JONES CUP (2000 METRES)
HORSE
COMMENT
STRATUM STAR
A model of consistency that is always around the money. Fourth-up last preparation he got beaten a wart as the $2.10 favourite over 2040m at Moonee Valley to Chill Party in handy overall time, so on the balance of probability, he can run the trip, therefore he’s the horse to beat here.
DIBAYANI
Hasn’t won a race anywhere for the last 28 months and has only won one of 11 on good tracks, so whilst his three Australian runs have been okay, I’m looking for something to beat him because of his winning drought. Off side blinker, off side bubble cheeker and standard bit come off for the first time today, while a lugging bit and noseroll go on again today.
LEEBAZ
His sole win in the last 17 months was in a photo at the Gold Coast on 25/5/15. Yet to win past 1800 but has been placed at two of three starts at 2000m. His three runs back from a spell have all importantly been in fast overall time which will have conditioned him well for today, so he has each way claims at double figure odds from the good alley. Blinkers come off for the first time and the winkers go on for the first time today.
PUCCINI
Hasn’t won a race anywhere for the last 20 months and he hasn’t run a place at his last seven starts but he missed the start last Saturday in the Lucky Hussler race – and then he couldn’t muster any speed to pick his feet up early, so I thought his run finished up being okay and I’d throw him in for third at bolters odds in exotics. Ear muffs come off for the first time today.
FENWAY
Beautifully ridden by Shinn when she got home against her own gender at Moonee Valley at WFA 15 days ago. Prefer her against the girls – yet she’s nearly favourite.
SADLER’S LAKE
Was going for three wins in a row when he never looked likely after overracing badly in the Epsom at Randwick won by Winx14 days ago. Has won at this trip in Brisbane over the Carnival, so if he’ll settle in the run he’s hard to beat.
THUNDER LADY
Her sole win in 16 starts was 50 weeks ago against her own gender when she was a 3YO at 30/1 – so not for me.
AWESOME ROCK
Has only won one of 13 career starts and hasn’t won a race for the last 19 months but he adores Caulfield where he’s never missed a place and he can cause a boil-over here at around 20/1 to my way of thinking. Only beaten 3.25 lengths with 4.5kgs more behind Fawkner at WFA two starts back.
VELOX
Won a $40K race at Racing.com Park two starts back and that was his only win in 17 months, so I couldn’t have him on top here.
HIGH MIDNIGHT
Sydney visitor that to my way of thinking is a wet tracker, so I can’t be in his corner today.
Additional comments: One of Stratum Star, Leebaz or Awesome Rock and I’d back Stratum Star win only.
That Caulfield Race 6 preview proves that a punter doesn’t have to bet big to win big money – they just have to bet smarter – as the trifecta of the three chances paid as high as $495 as per the above photo – and that would have cost a client just $6 to box, whilst the Exacta paid $83.90 for a $1 unit and the Quinella paid $51.60 for a $1 unit.
My clients don’t win every day either, but if they can win enough to recoup their original $995 outlay for their 52-week subscription, and then show a profit after 52 Saturdays of betting from the supplied information, they are a mile ahead of 99% of punters who will habitually lose in the same timeframe.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the third of four montages of photos from the Ipswich Puppy Auction last Sunday and Doomben thoroughbreds the day before. On the www.sydneyracing.com.au website there’s the story on a NSW trainer that was disqualified for 11 years and 3 months yesterday, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au there’s a breeding story.