10/01/13
There is no denying that the occasional Magic Millions 2YO winner goes on with the job and has a stellar racetrack career. But like every feature race ever run the Magic Millions 2YO will have its good years and its bad years. Again this year the usual crew are calling for the Magic Millions 2YO to become a Group 1 race, yet if they spent a bit of time researching the race they’d surely never make such an outlandish suggestion. Then again I suppose these people who annually make the same plea to have the race go to Group 1 status are the same ones who nominated More Joyous for a 3200-metre Melbourne Cup last year when they reasonably should have known she can’t even run 2040 metres quick enough to be competitive in a Cox Plate. They also requested barrier 11 for More Joyous in the 2012 Cox Plate when everyone else thought that was crazy and so on and so forth. So the racing public would probably become more educated about where the Magic Millions 2YO sits in the general score of things by reading what I’ve written here today in this extensive and well researched article – and if anyone reads and digests what is below – I’d be truly amazed if anyone could possibly deduce the race should rightfully be run at Group 1 level, as it’s simply a no brainer that in recent years the Magic Millions 2YO has been well and truly stuck in a rut, to the point where this year it really needs another topline 2YO to step up to the plate and win the race – then go on with the job later this year at two and next season at three.
Arguably the Magic Millions 2YO hasn’t had a top quality winner for nearly a decade as the last top shelf youngster that even ran a place in the race was 2004 victor Dance Hero and he went on to become arguably the best 2YO this country has ever seen in the long history of thoroughbred racing as not only did he win the Magic Millions 2YO in January of 2004 but a couple of months later he went on to win the Sydney 2YO Group 1 Triple Crown of the Golden Slipper, Sires Produce and Champagne Stakes.
I accept Phelan Ready also won the Golden Slipper after he’d earlier won the Magic Millions in 2009 but the fact and realities are that he’s was proven incapable of winning another race in umpteen attempts since the Golden Slipper meaning you’d probably be drawing a fairly long bow to call him a “top quality” racehorse – given he hasn’t won a race anywhere in 45 months.
If you think I’m being a little harsh in my judgement of placegetters in the Magic Millions since the 2004 version starring Dance Hero, here is a list of the placegetters and I can’t find one “top quality” racehorse in the 24 names that were placed in the race from 2005-2012 inclusive. The list reads:
YEAR
FIRST
SECOND
THIRD
2012
Driefontein
No Looking Back
Alezan Thunder
2011
Karuta Queen
Combat Kitty
Schiffer
2010
Military Rose
Ambers Waltz
Demanding Miss
2009
Phelan Ready
Paprika
Motown Lady
2008
Augusta Proud
She’s Meaner
High Roll’n Woman
2007
Mimi Lebrock
Husson Lightning
Royal Ascher
2006
Mirror Mirror
Churchill Downs
Reigart
2005
Bradbury’s Luck
Emit Time
Al Samer
Unless I’m suffering from amnesia in my advancing years, proven non-winner Phelan Ready was about the only one of those aforementioned 24 Magic Millions placed 2YO’s across the last eight years that went on with the job at 3YO and beyond and who could say turn up at a Sydney Autumn or Melbourne Spring Carnival and be competitive – even sometimes – in a Group 1, Group 2, or Group 3 sprint.
So I’ve now established beyond reasonable doubt that the placegetters in the last eight Magic Millions 2YO – which any fair minded person would surely agree is a good sample – have been proven to be quite limited in their subsequent racetrack career. In fact it may surprise, or even shock, many in racing to know just how bad the 32 horses that have cumulatively contested the last two Magic Millions 2YO’s (two fields of 16 each year) have turned out to be, given that the 16 runners annually that comprise the Magic Millions 2YO race would obviously be fairly deemed to be “the most precocious” of the group of the several thousand yearlings that are sold annually by Magic Millions and which subsequently become eligible to be paid up for the series. Just to educate readers who may not be aware, the 16 horses that make up that final field of any year’s Magic Millions 2YO race become eligible to race in the event and subsequent Magic Millions races after being paid up for the series following them being sold at one of the various yearling or weanling sales conducted at the Gold Coast, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and Rockhampton, so “several thousand” would be the correct eligible figure. The composition of the final 16 Magic Millions 2YO runners on any given year is drawn up strictly as a result of their prizemoney earnings – such that the highest 21 prizemoney earners (final field of 16 plus five emergencies) get to be the final acceptors for the race. Given that these 16 two-year-olds that start in the feature annually are obviously “the most precocious” of their age group sold at auction by Magic Millions around Australia, a bit of research shows what slugs, on average, get to run in the Magic Millions 2YO annually. If you think “slugs” is harsh terminology, below is the field of 16 that started in the Magic Millions 2YO in both 2012 and 2011. I’m sure my readers as well as the Magic Millions company themselves will be amazed at the total lack of good horses that emanate from the race in the current era, after having previously thrown up such classy winners as Snippets (1987), Bold Promise (1991), Clan O’Sullivan (1992), Brave Warrior (1994), General Nediym (1997), Testa Rossa (1999), Assertive Lad (2000), Excellerator (2001), Regimental Gal (2003) and as mentioned earlier, the daddy of them all – Dance Hero (2004).
Here is some well researched information regarding the 16 horses that headed off to the barriers for the 2012 Magic Millions 2YO and their racetrack achievements since. In saddlecloth number they were:
HORSE
SALE PRICE
NO WINS/NO OF STARTS SINCE MM 2YO
P/MONEY EARNED SINCE
MM 2YO’s
Noogoora Burr
$37,500
0/7
$7,000
Amorino
$70,000
0/4
$78,000
Sizzling
$260,000
5/8
$780,750
Travino
$?*
0/8
$21,550 (NZ$)
Little Critter
$40,000
0/7
$19,150
Fundido
$70,000
0/2
$900
Pure Whisper
$170,000
1/1
$6,500
Driefontein
$75,000
1/5
$173,000
Hoss Amor
$100,000
3/7
$247,350
Snipzu
$80,000
2/15
$276,400
Discreet
$50,000
1/9
$130,300
Alezan Thunder
$55,000
0/2
$29,100
Lady Colours
$90,000
1/8
$56,000
No Looking Back
$500,000
1/3
$290,000
Love Laughing
$22,000 P/I
0/4
$4,000
Mrs Gray
$95,000
0/6
$8,225
*= unable to find sale price.
So in summary, this group of 16 horses have cumulatively started a further 96 times and have cumulatively won another 15 races, which represents a win strike rate of an ordinary 15.63%.
In another deplorable statistic that I discovered from the aforesaid group – eight of the 16 horses, or 50%, have never won a race anywhere since they raced in the Magic Millions 2YO.
And as you can see from that group, the only horse that could be deemed to go on with it at this point in time would be Sizzling, as he’s a subsequent Group 1 winner. However his negative is that he was unable to run a place when taken to Melbourne to compete against better company, in the 2012 Spring Carnival, so he could be fairly deemed a “Queensland star” only at this point.
Hoss Amor is another horse that seemingly performs only in Queensland. She won a Listed race after initially running second (Hampden Stakes) when the winner Noogoora Burr returned a positive swab during the 2012 Brisbane Winter Carnival and she also won another two Listed races (Lancaster Stakes and Mercedes Benz Stakes) in Brisbane in 2012 against walkers, but she’s yet to replicate those efforts interstate, so whilst she’s won three Listed races in Queensland, she hasn’t won a black type race, at even Listed level, in either Sydney or Melbourne.
Here is a list of the 16 horses that headed off to the barriers for the 2011 Magic Millions two-year-old classic and their subsequent racetrack feats – or lack thereof. In saddlecloth number they were:
HORSE
SALE PRICE
NO WINS VS
NO STARTS SINCE MM 2YO
PRIZEMONEY SINCE
MM 2YO’s
Double Impact
$35,000
2/19
$130,300
Five O’Clock
$50,000
0/7
$3,900
Internal Revenue
$75,000 P.I.
1/8
$46,200
Racing Stripes
$11,000
0/8
$3,000
Pepper Jet
$80,000
0/5
$NIL
Wonderful You
$140,000
0/0
$NIL
Snippets of Glory
$100,000
1/17
$22,350
Zed Man
$150,000
8/23
$60,850
Karuta Queen
$30,000
2/11
$330,875
Military Grace
$100,000
0/8
$2,000
Schiffer
$240,000
1/6
$127,000
Fast And Sexy
$170,000
0/12
$87,500
Flammable
$21,000
2/17
$45,500
Playtime
$36,000
2/20
$183,300
Merryanna
$5,000
4/22
$115,865
Combat Kitty
$150,000
1/7
$121,580
From this entire group of 16 starters in the 2011 Magic Millions 2YO – only Karuta Queen was proven to be able to subsequently go to a Carnival in either Sydney or Melbourne and win a decent race, as she won at Group 3 level in Melbourne (Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley). The others would best be fairly described as “limited” or “pluggers”. The 16 horses from Magic Millions 2011 have subsequently cumulatively started a further 190 times and they have cumulatively recorded just 24 wins, which represents an absolutely abysmal win strike rate of only 12.64%.
In another damning statistic from this group that contested the Magic Millions 2YO of 2011, six of the 16 – or 37.50% – have not won a race anywhere since – meaning when I look at this specific statistic over the last two years running’s of the race I find of the 32 horses that have cumulatively run in the Magic Millions 2YO in January of 2011 and January of 2012, an incredible 14 of those 32 horses, or 43.75%, have not won a solitary race anywhere, even at a non-TAB venue, since he or she raced in the Magic Millions 2YO.
It would seem that in recent years the Magic Millions 2YO is almost the kiss of death to those who start in it? And fair dinkum it has as much chance of gaining Group 1 status either now or in the future, as I have of flying to the moon in a Cessna on half a tank of aviation fuel.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au is the second montage of photos from Eagle Farm last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story of the Warwick Farm winner from last Saturday that is allegedly Stradbroke bound, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at a little known trainer and his horse.