12/03/15
Magic Millions has 394 Lots set down for sale over two days of selling next week – March 16 and 17. The sale kicks off at 11am next Monday when the first 197 Lots will go under the hammer then the following day, again with an 11am start, the remaining 197 Lots will enter the sales ring.
This aforesaid two-day yearling sale is the second last yearling sale that will be held at the Gold Coast this calendar year. The only other one is the “Gold Coast National Yearling Sale” which goes for three days from 2 to 4 June inclusive.
Many of the 394 yearlings that will be sold over the two days are QTIS eligible. To that end the ones that are “QTIS eligible” are marked in the top right hand corner of each Lot.
In respect of QTIS, Page 5 of the Magic Millions “Gold Coast March Yearling Sale” catalogue states the following:
“Be in the race for up to $13 million. From August 2015, the QTIS bonus scheme will be revitalised to provide improved financial incentives for the Queensland thoroughbred industry”.
The four QTIS bonuses are noted as being:
“METROPOLITAN $35,000 bonus will be allocated to every 2YO and 3YO race at each Saturday and Public Holiday Metropolitan meeting”.
“PROVINCIAL $12,000 in QTIS bonuses will be allocated to provincial TAB meetings”.
“METROPOLITAN MIDWEEK $10,000 bonuses will be allocated to Metropolitan midweek meetings”.
“COUNTRY $5,000 QTIS bonuses will be allocated to non-TAB meetings”.
There is also advice on the same page where you can find a registration form if you buy a “QTIS eligible” yearling. In other words, if you buy a “QTIS eligible” yearling you still have to part with more money to pay that yearling up for QTIS.
So all that looks pretty enticing on face value. If you buy a yearling that grows up to win a Saturday city race and he or she has been paid up for QTIS, you can get your share of “$35,000” in bonus money on top of the normal prizemoney.
Other yearlings that are in the sale are advised as being “BOBS eligible” and BOBS is the NSW thoroughbred incentive scheme.
Now apart from obviously needing to have the dough if you stick your hand up and buy one of these 394 Lots let me look at whether the sale in fact contains any yearlings that are by what I’d call “successful stallions” or whether it’s filled primarily with progeny of stallions that struggle to throw black type winners. After all – you can forget QTIS, BOBS and all the rest of the thoroughbred “incentive schemes” because the what I’d call “real money” to be made in thoroughbred racing is 1) from winning Group 1 races and 2) to be able to use that black type status that has been earned in Group victories in the breeding barn when a racehorse has been retired.
After spending about 25 years researching the topic, I’ve concluded that a “successful sire” needs to be able to achieve some minimum criteria. He should be able to achieve a winners-to-runners percentage of 60% or above and he should also be able to achieve a stakeswinners-to-runners ratio of 5% or above. By my more than fair criteria, I’m therefore allowing 40% of his progeny to never win a race anywhere, at Dingo, Alice Springs, Dysart or Mount Isa. And I’m also allowing 95% of his progeny to never win a black type race (Group 1, Group 2, Group 3 or Listed).
Yet surprisingly by using my more than fair criteria, most stallions that all the thoroughbred “urgers” may call “top stallions,” “wonderful sire” – and all their allied positive rot – simply can’t cut the mustard when their statistics are pulled apart. I fully acknowledge that in human terms I could get a male university professor and mate him with a female university professor and their resultant child could grow up to be dunce of the class, but because of their proven intelligence, their odds of bringing an intelligent child into the world would be far better than if a male who was dunce of the class in year 8 at Armidale High was mated with a female who was dunce of the class at Dingo High School in year 8.So in thoroughbred breeding – nothing is different. The progeny of a stallion with the proven record of throwing 70% winners-to-runners and 7% stakeswinners-to-runners should offer a better chance of throwing a stakeswinner than the stallion with the 40% winners-to-runners record that has never thrown a black type winner. It’s like everything else in life – it’s just common sense, but walk into a yearling sale and watch that “common sense” stuff go straight out the door, as egotistical males, full of testosterone, all try to outdo each other. And in any event, the passage of time generally shows that the yearling they were fighting over grows up to be a cat that can’t get out of sight on a dark nigh anyway.
Below is a list of every sire that has had an opportunity to have at least one crop represent him out on the racetrack of dreams and here are his proven figures as per the relevant Magic Millions catalogue for next week’s sale. Don’t forget I’m looking for 60% winners-to-runners or higher PLUS 5% stakeswinners-to-runners or higher to see a “successful sire”. In the table below “W-T-R” stands for “winners-to-runners” whilst “SW-T-R” stands for “stakeswinners-to-runners”.
STALLION
YEAR BORN
W-T-R RATIO
SW-T-R RATIO
Sequalo
1990 (dec’d)
69.23%
2.11%
Show A Heart
1997
66.67%
3.27%
Real Saga
2006
48.53%
0.00%
Red Dazzler
2002
52.06%
2.06%
Nothing To Lose
2000
41.54%
1.54%
Not A Single Doubt
2001
63.23%
4.44%
Jet Spur
2002
62.54%
1.51%
Written Tycoon
2002
65.93%
3.10%
Snippetson
2001
62.75%
1.53%
Monashee Mountain
1997
66.26%
2.12%
Duke of Marmalade
2004
45.22%
4.78%
Bradbury’s Luck
2002
67.62%
2.87%
Hidden Dragon
1999
60.00%
1.28%
Freeze
2000
44.44%
1.01%
Falvelon
1996
67.47%
1.98%
Starcraft
2000
53.78%
4.36%
Publishing
2003
52.70%
0.00%
Magic Albert
1998
67.58%
3.26%
Casino Prince
2003
60.83%
3.69%
Congrats
2000
64.72%
4.96%
Ferocity
2002
57.20%
0.41%
Myboycharlie
2005
41.28%
2.33%
I Am Invincible
2004
62.67%
6.67%
Outback Prince
2001
48.00%
0.00%
Henrythenavigator
2005
48.00%
1.85%
Tycoon Ruler
1999
67.23%
0.84%
Court Command
2003
59.02%
0.82%
Street Boss
2004
67.41%
4.91%
Al Maher
2001
60.00%
6.15%
Husson
2003
59.37%
4.06%
Easy Rocking
1996
64.63%
2.10%
Sebring
2005
57.22%
5.67%
Murtajill
2004
47.11%
0.83%
Collate
2001
51.22%
2.44%
Exceedingly Good
2005
44.68%
2.13%
Dane Shadow
2001
61.40%
2.05%
Dash For Cash
1998
64.21%
1.64%
Seidnazar
2002
38.46%
0.00%
Magnus
2002
63.21%
2.59%
Lope De Vega
2007
43.10%
6.90%
Savabeel
2001
66.83%
8.66%
Clang
1993
59.62%
1.57%
Choisir
1999
62.73%
5.13%
Domesday
2002
52.59%
3.19%
Northern Meteor
2005 (dec’d)
60.62%
6.74%
Zaha
1996
42.91%
0.36%
Exceed And Excel
2000
68.39%
7.65%
So if website visitors like to have a look through all that factual research, on Monday (as there will be no bookmakers’ report with Lindsay Gallagher not fielding at the main Gold Coast meeting Saturday as he’ll be at the Caloundra meeting), I’ll put up a whole heap of conclusions that I can draw from the aforesaid.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the story on the Queensland stallion that’s a “cousin” to Golden Slipper favourite Vancouver. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story on HRNSW fines that have emanated from inquiries they’ve been conducting, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls previews the Newmarket today and tomorrow the educated drum around the traps is that he’s going to preview the Australian Cup.