It’s always been one of racings truisms that there are more ways for the horses we back to lose than there are for them to win. Successful punting is all about risk management and taking as many steps as we can to reduce the chances of losing on any given bet. But – coming in to Winter means that tracks will be wet much of the time, rails won’t be in the “true” position much of the time and that’s when track bias can really come into play as a key factor in deciding on a bet.

What is track bias and can we do anything about it?

Put bluntly, we can try to understand the effect that track bias should have on a betting call, and that means understanding how various tracks can play. All tracks, city, provincial and country, have some level of bias. In fact, the only tracks where bias is a relatively minor factor are the synthetic tracks where the rails are always “true”, but even here bias still exists. As an example, check the pattern of racing at Geelong’s Pro-Ride track and you’ll see clearly that very few races on the Pro-Ride are won by “swoopers”.

Track bias comes from the layout of the track, the length of the home straight, the starting position relative to the first turn, the nature of the track surface, the position of the moveable inside rail and the track rating (Firm, Good, Slow, Heavy).

Let’s take the layout and the length of the straight first. Moonee Valley is a classic example of track layout influencing racing patterns. It’s a saucer-like layout with a short straight of only 173 metres and most horses need to get start getting forward around the 600 metre mark to be in the race with a winning chance. It is possible for a swooper to win at the Valley, but they need a spectacular turn of foot to do it. The late & great racecaller Bill Collins – nicknamed “The Accurate One” – famously called that “Kingston Town can’t win” coming in to the straight in the Cox Plate years ago, but he did! Contrast Moonee Valley with Rockhampton. Rocky has a 600 metre straight and that gives every horse a chance and takes a lot of the bias away. Every punter has a theory about horses who can win at tight courses, and those who can’t, but it is certainly true that some horses handle tight tracks, and some just don’t.

Next comes the position of the inside rail. Track managers move the inside rail to try to protect the inside grass from overuse and wear. On a tighter, turning courses like Moonee Valley, Caulfield and Wyong, it is difficult for back-markers to make ground when the rail is out and this often means that the horses who naturally race forward will have a clear advantage. That’s “leader bias” and it isn’t as obvious when the rail is true.

What about the starting position relative to the first turn? It’s simple. If the first turn comes up quickly after the start, those horses who tend to be slowly away will likely end up three wide around the first turn and run the risk of being posted there for the duration. When the rail is out a few metres, this problem gets worse. The 1400 metre start at Caulfield is a nightmare for riders on horses that don’t have gate speed when the rail is out. Just eliminate horses that lack gate speed from your thinking if these circumstances exist!

Track ratings are important in assessing bias. The rule of thumb is simple – the wetter the track, the higher the betting risk. It’s true that some horses excel in wet ground. Most of Snitzel’s progeny can handle it, but many horses simply won’t stretch out on Heavy tracks. If you try to run over a wet tiled floor in bare feet you’ll get a very similar feeling!

It’s even more difficult when the track has an inherent problem. Randwick obviously has a drainage issue. Sydney’s weather coming up to the Autumn carnival was certainly wet, but the number of consecutive Heavy 8, 9 and 10 ratings that punters had to deal with on Sydney’s premier track was simply unacceptable. The track just doesn’t recover after rain as well as it should. It didn’t ruin the Carnival, but when riders head for the outside fence in the straight in Group races, something isn’t right with the track. It’s also true that Randwick develops “fast lanes” more often than many other venues.

So, when the rain falls at Randwick, be careful. Maybe the powers that be need to think about some serious drainage improvements.

There are some basic rules that can help understand track bias, even when a track has idiosyncrasies like Randwick.

If the rail is true, then the racing will be true to the track design. By that, it means that a natural front runners track, say Wyong and Caulfield for example, will always favour horses on the speed or just behind it. Equally, big, roomy tracks like Flemington and Ballarat will give the swoopers their chance.

If the rail is out 4 metres or more, every track becomes a leaders track and the further out the rail is, the more this is likely to be so. If your selection can’t race on the speed, don’t bet!

Punting is difficult enough at any time, but thinking about how the track will play in relation to how your horse races can take a lot of the risk out of play. It’s like the old saying – the harder I work, the luckier I get!