A messy weekend of racing this weekend with races left right and centre. The breeders get their annual carnival at Scone and generally it’s a poison carnival to bet in with big form reversals expected from the rubbish Hawkesbury meeting. Then we have Group racing up in Brisbane with the Doomben 10,000 being run on Doomben which received 1.4mm of rain on the night before their last meeting and was downgraded from a Soft 4 to a Soft 5. With jockeys and trainers thinking it actually raced closer to a Soft 6 so who really knows how what it will be tomorrow with predicted showers.
We then head down to Adelaide for more Group racing and the good thing is at least the track has been playing well so all horses should at least get their chance.
The race I’ve decided to preview is race 3 at Scone on Saturday as I believe we will see a very smart filly go around.
Scone Race 3 Segenhoe Stud Woodlands Stakes:
| Horse | Comment |
|---|---|
| Exceeds | An honest little filly with the top weight here. She comes into this off the trial since her last run and Schofield and Cummings Combine which is a good combo. She gets back but really doesn’t have the quality for mine to run over the top of them. In saying that the $12 is a good price in a rubbish race. |
| Debonairly | Gets Blinkers off here being 3rd up. Did come up lane 2 last time and that was no good but she has feet issues. She will lead here but at the $3.70 she looks way too short. |
| Almanzora | She possible is a bleeder or has issues having had her runs spaced so much. She won a soft trial not long ago at Randwick and comes into this with the best ratings. If she is right she will win and the $2.90 looks outstanding. |
| Friends | Started $26 its only city race and ran 2nd in a walkers race. Wouldn’t win if it cut through the infield. |
| African Rainbow | She looks a speedy little thing and gets Rachael Murray who in recent times is riding poorly. Has to handle Barrier 9 so should go back, there is some decent enough speed in the race and is great value for the exotics as long as she gets some cover. The $21 is a good price for her chances. |
| Epidemic | Was raw on debut and then had a trial in January and then not trialled since the 28th April so obviously a little set back. It’s a rubbish race and it give it some hope. $6 seems short enough. |
| I am Excited | Won her trial easy recently but those 740m trials are useless and its poor placement to come into a Stakes grade race off 2 rubbish short course trials. She will win races but been given not much hope to win this off the platform. |
| Leaven of Malice | Looked like phar lap winning its trial and then winning last start but that was a rubbish race in comparison to this and she cant win. Im no wrap at all on the jockey and can almost guarantee this will end up 3w for most of the race despite drawing barrier 5. |
| Lipizan | Another with only 1 soft 760m trial which is no good at all for a Listed 1100m first up.went ok first prep but again not given much hope to win here. |
| Shantou | Started $5 at Bathurst and couldn’t win. What do you think. |
| Meliboea | Possible the best roughie in the race and all day. Worst part of the track last time and that was off 45 days. Can win and is currently $21. |
| Cinque Stella | Not hope at all. |
In summary the only winning chances are Meliboea, Exceeds ,Debonairly and Almanzora.
I’d suggest having 1 unit each way on Meliboea at the $21 and 3 units to win on Almanzora.
Last week: Beaten in a photo last week and the profit for the Friday night preview is back to $1675.
Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.auas well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.
Good luck and happy punting!!!