The racing attention turns to Queensland racing from here on in and amazingly as happens every year the fields in Sydney now fill up with some big numbers in most races.
A $4 winner is the same in a field or 15 or a field of 6 and often time I think punters waste money betting into fields or races where there is too much element of risk and often sometimes the best opportunities are also away from the Metro area and it’s something you should strongly consider when doing the form.
However, Just Racing has asked me to preview the Group 1 Doomben Cup and it is a likeable race on paper to pull apart.
The track by all reports is supposed to be a bog by the time this race comes around so we are looking for mud eaters. The race shape is for walking to slow speed only – therefore suiting the horses on speed.
Doomben Cup Preview:
| Horse | Comment |
|---|---|
| It’s Somewhat | Currently $4 and hard in the market deservedly so off his fantastic Doncaster win. He is our leader in the race and really looks to get an absolute picnic in front: 3 wins from 5 at 2000m suggests he loves the distance range but truth be told he is suspect the last 100m. Two his three wins have been in walking speed races so he had no option but to win. His wet track record will be no concern either on paper – but if we look at that record there are holes in it with him beating some very suspect horses when he has won on the wet. He deserves his favouritism but come Saturday afternoon- there is a big chance his spot on the fence will be no good come race time. |
| Preferment | Should have been retired 12 months ago- been a great old horse but has 2 goes on a heavy for 8 lengths and 25 lengths defeat- He is gone. |
| Sense of Occasion | Unfortunately, he has drawn the outside marble and doesn’t have the speed to get in anywhere except last. Kris Lees now trains him and is his fifth trainer but amazingly has won a $1m with Kris Lees. If he had drawn a barrier he would have been in the finish but that draw is horrible. |
| Vanbrugh | A Strange set up with him being 2nd up at 2000m but he has a great record at this distance. His not really a heavy track horse action either so happy to let him run against us. |
| Star Exhibit | 2nd Start for Weir but she has won 4 of her last 5 starts. She was impressive winning on debut for Weir and has shown she likes the wet tracks. She is versatile in that she can settle forward or back. She is a place chance but not classy enough to win. |
| McCreery | By renowned wet Track sire in BIG BAB BOB- he is a very consistent horse and was possibly the run of the race in the Doncaster. He maps horrible here as he gets back and will be wide and that’s not a good formula. That draw means he is a place chance only though as he will have to give up too many lengths to win. |
| Cylinder Beach | He was exceptionally strong in the Toowoomba Cup and is bred to love the wet- but he is another who goes right back and drawn badly. A great one to include in exotics as his flying but this is not ideal. |
| Benzini | Won the Brisbane Cup last year but this is much much harder and he doesn’t look to be going anywhere near as good- pass. |
| Maurus | Is way too short for mine in the market. D Browne gets on but he is riding ordinary at present and this draws wide. Almost always goes back but is one of the horses who has the speed to be on pace. The wet will be no issue but he is more a Group 3 horse and I don’t believe up to winning this. |
| Astronomos | Whilst his stablemate is 3 times shorter than this bloke – I can’t believe he is $40/1. He eats mud for breakfast- the stable no1 choice jockey rides and he gets blinkers on here. The best roughie in the race and a place chance. |
| Emphasis | Is 201/1 and he is going well the horse but he would have been better served waiting for the Ipswich cup rather than wasting a run here. |
| Articus | Current second favourite and maps exceptionally well with a the inform Avdulla on board. The wet is not ideal but he can handle it and he comes out of a serious rating race last time in where they smashed the clock on a day where it wasn’t possible. He and Its somewhat are the two class horses in the race. He brings different form and did start 3rd favourite in the Caulfield Cup. If it was a dead track he would be a deserved favourite but the heavy track brings him back slightly. Can win all the same. |
| Rudy | Everyone has this horse as a wet tracker but I think he is non-winner and not a wet tracker. His last win was a good 2 track 12 months ago. |
| Single Gaze | Currently $10 and someone must be drunk to put that price up. The horse is flying and if it had drawn slightly easier should be our favourite. She loves wet tracks and has won off a slow speed before. My only worry is if she is forced to sit OSL of Its Somewhat then that is a very bad position. If she slots in and can be 3rd pair she is the one to beat. |
| Jessy Belle | Her one go on a heavy she should have gone close in the Myer Stakes (but different type of heavy to what she will get here). She looks to be just going through the motions and I can’t have her here. |
| Amelie’s Star | Arguable the forgotten horse again with different form which is a plus. She has won 5 of the last 7 and is proven she likes the wet . She has rattled off some impressive numbers in those wins and is versatile where she settles. I see as genuine winning hope. |
| Sound Proposition | No hope. |
| Auvray | He was rubbish in France and then somehow someone must have been drunk to have paid 7 figures for him to come to Australia. If he cut through the infield he couldn’t win. |
In summary, it’s a race with a lot of depth this year and some different form which I think is key
Looking at the prices I think if you like Articus he will drift slightly as will Its Somewhat. For mine the way to place the race is 2 units SINGLE GAZE @ $10, 2 units Articus top fluc and 1 unit Amelie’s Star best tote
Last week Almanzora let us down after being very soft all morning in betting so obviously, she has some issues physically
This brings the profit for the Friday Night previews back to $1175.
Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.
Good luck and happy punting!!!