A big day of racing awaits in QLD, with the Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup at Eagle Farm. So much hinges on this meeting on so many levels. Horses going on to the Group 1 JJ Atkins, QLD Derby & Stradbroke, and then we have some administrators holding their collective breath hoping the Eagle Farm surface doesn’t embarrass Queensland racing. As a punter, I’ll be monitoring the track as the day goes on and looking for patterns and / or bias.

Race 1

With some key scratchings of on pace runners, I think 10 TOP TONE can benefit from a less hectic tempo up front. He finished very close in a less than suitable race first up beaten 1.7L in the BAT OUT OF HELL. He has won over this trip, has won second and importantly has won here at Eagle Farm. He can race on speed or just in behind the speed and give a sight. Burning Passion, Sony Legend & Savoureaux hardest to beat.

Numbers 10 – 6 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet: 1 x 2 Each Way 10 TOP TONE $11 & $3.50 UBET

Race 2

Disappointing race for a Group 3 lacking depth with 1 RELIGIFY the standout for me. He was good on speed in winning the Prime Ministers Cup at the Gold Coast last time out. Looks the likely on speed runner here and I think he can handle the track conditions. He raced well here in QLD last year at Group and listed level, and has run a close second on a SOFT 7 in stakes grade at Randwick. The scone cup winner DUCA VALENTINOS will be hard to beat, and the other 2 who come out of that race will also be there about, in the form of PAJARO & AMOVATIO. Of the local hopes 8 Col N Lil is the best of them, she didn’t handle the hard surface last time, has freshened up for this and races well at Eagle Farm.

Numbers 1 – 3 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: WIN1 RELIGIFY $2.40

Race 3

Group 2 BRC Sire Produce looks an open race with a few here eyeing the Group 1 JJ Atkins next start, and others here for their Grand Final. 14 MELODY BELLE is the one I’ve settled on here. I think the Kiwis have this race between them, with QIJI PHOENIX an untapped potential, but gate 22 is less than ideal for it. 14 MELODY BELLE is the KARAKA MILLIONS winner, then won the Group 1 1400M Sires Produce in NZ. She tuned up for this with a nice 1050m trial on a heavy Deagon track, and the KIWI form lines are strong through the previous mentioned races. She looks a very nice horse in the making and is the one to beat. 9 QIJI PHOENIX is an unbeaten NZ colt who was a last start Listed winner over the 1600m on a soft track. Terrible gate here drawn in 23, but you have to respect him. Plenty with a chance filling the minoring placings.

Numbers 14 – 9 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet WIN 14 MELODY BELLE $3.40

Race 4

This race has changed complexion with the scratching of 3 STAMPEDE and has opened up the race. Keen on the local hope 2 JUMBO PRINCE for Mick Nolan. Jumbo has been placed over this trip in the QLD DERBY, IPSWICH & CALOUNDRA Cups and he has won twice here at the Eagle Farm.  He was a forgive last time getting too far back, and Blake Shinn goes on today which is a plus. From a good gate he will get a good run in transit and be very hard to beat. 6 NEVERLAND is the horse to beat and there’s been some early money for it at the fixed odds. She’s a nice staying mare with a close second behind STAR EXHIBIT in the Perth Cup, a form line that reads well for this.

Numbers 2 -6 – 13 – 1

Suggested Bet: 1 x 2 Each Way 2 JUMBO PRINCE

Race 5

The Group 3 GRAND PRIX STAKES paves the way to the QLD DERBY, which I’ve already had something on 5 SHOCKING LUCK to win. Hard not to be taken by its win last start, sprinting quickly to put the field away and winning very nicely, He’s the horse to beat here. 2 VOLATILE MIX was an impressive Group 1 SA DERBY winner last start, the master DK Weir puts the polish on him, and was quoted as saying this horse is just an out and out stayer. I think you will need to be a good stayer to win on this track today over this trip so he comes into contention. 1 PRIZED ICON the Group 1 VICTORIAN DERBY winner is a very classy animal. Contested all the major 3yo races in Sydney during the Autumn and is a major player here also.

Numbers 5 – 2 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet:  BOX EXACTA 1 -2 – 5

Race 6

The Group 3 GLENLOGAN PARK STAKES for fillies and mares. The win of 8 RAINMENT last start in Group 3 company on the Heavy track was quite impressive. The key here is how the track is playing, as it could well be that wide gates are advantageous as we get into the meeting, with runners looking for fresh ground. She’s drawn wide in 15, but she is rightly favourite.  One at odds I could entertain is 6 THAMES COURT. She hasn’t been beaten further than 4.3L in her last 5 starts, and at that was in the Group 1 Coolmore. While she is drawn wide, she is drawn directly outside the favourite so she can follow RAINMENT across and follow her to get a nice run. She is a very honest, consistent mare and will give a sight at a massive price. 2 ARTISTRY was very stiff last start, and has the ability to atone here with a bit of luck in running.

Numbers 8 – 6 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: 1 x 2 Each way 6 THAMES COURT $31 & $8.50 UBET and BOX EXACTA 1,2,6,8

Race 7

The Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup over 1300m here sees 1 BLACK HEART BART an easing favourite. The sped runner here is 8 JUNGLE EDGE who comfortably won the Grp 3 BRC Sprint last week. Can’t see any reason why we wouldn’t be on him EW here today at the $10 quote. Doesn’t seem to be a lot of speed so he can bowl along in front and give a great sight. His Sydney form behind Russian Revolution, Le Romain and Tivaci on wet tracks is outstanding for this. The Doomben 10,000 form lines through COUNTER ATTACK & DERRYN should hold up here and they look to be leading contenders. 1 BLACK HEART BART is just a super race horse, blinkers go back on here and he will be around the money.

Numbers 8 – 11 – 5 – 1

Suggested bet: EACH WAY 8 JUNGLE EDGE $10 & $3 CROWN BET

Race 8

I’m keen on the Blue jackets striking here with 8 TESSERA. Arguably should have won the Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas, when an unlucky third. From gate 4 he should be able to track 5 DREAMS APLENTY who will no doubt will ensure a solid speed. The speed from DREAMS APLENTY should sort the men from the boys here, and I think 8 TESSERA is the one that gets the right run and has the class to put these away.  21 NICCANOVA is the interesting runner that can be in the money. He will run a strong 1400m and with a touch of luck from the gate can be in the finish.

Numbers 8 – 5 – 21 – 16

Suggested Bet: WIN 8 TESSERA $5