Luke Murrell’s Randwick race 6 preview and thoughts on this week’s racing happenings

Just on the two announcements through the week on the TAB mergers along with the Racing NSW set to increase their fees I’ve been asked to provide my opinion

On the TAB mergers, in my opinion it’s a disgrace. Every single punter in Australia who punts on Sport or Horse Racing specifically will be worse off and not just a little bit but a lot. I can see the plus side of greyhound and harness racing as the pools will be better and less volatile but let’s face it – they are only that way because both governing bodies do an average job in promoting and getting the sport out there in the community and hence there is limited interest which flows through to the pool sizes. For Horse Racing lovers – it will allow less competition and that can only be bad. Every single merger in history to create a monopoly has been only ever good for 1 party and that’s the shareholders. Unfortunately, the punters are not the shareholders so they get screwed again. The only way that I could see it being good for the industry would be if the racing industry as a whole where to buy the merged entity to ensure the profits go back into the industry and not shareholder pockets but given that is basic common sense and given they can’t even organise race days without clashing that is a million to one and drifting

On the move by Racing NSW to increase the fees charged to Betfair I have to say I’m shocked they have proceeded. Peter V’landys has done some wonderful things for racing but this one I certainly disagree with it. Betfair has become the cornerstone of horse racing markets in this country thanks to the lack of governance that the corporate bookmakers operate under and without Betfair we would be in a lot worse state than we currently are. Betfair has helped prop up a lagging industry by creating huge turnover and interest and without them in the picture its only 10-15 years until the horse racing industry becomes what the harness and greyhound industry are. Its basic economics that you can’t keep increasing taxes without something giving way and given it’s the punter that supports the whole industry it’s a crying shame that Racing NSW doesn’t recognise this and it turn make some rules to ensure they never kill the golden goose. Given the punter is the key provider it staggers me there has been no consultation and effort to ensure they are protected which in turn ensures the industry is protected. Make no mistake we will sooner rather than later reach breaking point and it will all come crashing down. One only has to look on social media these days to see the amount of account closures that occur on a daily basis which in turn is shrinking the industry further and further. These are not high flyer’s betting $1000’s of dollars but joe average wanting to have $20, $50 and $100 on a selection and being rejected simply because they are winning. By turning these punters away, we will never get them back and with the extra taxes imposed by racing authorities on places like Betfair that actually promote and engage wagering it certainly doesn’t take a genius to work out the industry can go only one way. Remember punters provide the betting tax to provide the prizemoney to provide the owners who support the breeders. Without the punters what happens?

 

Racing is back at Randwick on Saturday in a card that looks to have some depth and judging by the short priced favourites it looks a tough day for favourite backers

We have a 7m rail day with a heavy surface so I expect it will be up and on speed but perhaps a little off the fence and then come the half of the card they will be wanting to get wider and wider so beware of inside draws

The open handicap is a race with a few chances but a couple that seem wrong prices. The issue with the race is lack of tempo and that means the lesser hopes become more of a chance but I think it’s a good betting race.

Race 6 Racing To Win Handicap:

 

Destiny’s Kiss Currently $21 bet now. He is on a 7 day back up. He got an ordinary ride last start and they have now gone with the apprentice. The market gets it right when dealing with long priced runners as he has had 18 runners in the last 12 months that have started 6th fav or longer and none have won. The 7 day is a plus and this is a weaker race than last time but still with the Joe Pride Stable only at 10% strike rate recently I don’t think old Destiny’s Kiss @ 1600m will be helping improve those stats.
Marenostro Currently $6.50 bet now which I think is short enough. He is interesting in that he loves wet tracks and has had 2 good conditions trials (ok time). First up last time off a similar platform (trials where better last time) he was only beaten 2 lengths in a Group 3 at Rosehill when down the worst part of the track. His problem is 5 starts at ‘the swamp” for only a 2nd placing in a 5 horse field. Happy to pass on him here.
Sound Proposition Currently $6 bet now. With the Kris Lees yard now 5th in Australia on the trainer’s premiership he is getting an influx of horses from the likes of Gooree, China Horse Club and now this ex NZ horse. He got lapped in the Doomben cup for his old trainer and now has his first run in Australia for Lees off an impressive trial (ran slow time). He has good ratings and form in NZ and whilst this old bloke looks to be the unknown for many I think he is a massive chance with Rachael King who is probably the only apprentice of the current crop who will still be riding in Sydney in 3 years’ time as a senior. She still does a few things wrong but they certainly run for her. She has ridden 7 from 30 for Lees and is almost at 50% for them to run top 3 so far. The biggest issue I have is I almost never back horses who haven’t won a race anywhere in 12 months and this horse fits that criteria. The current price I expect to drift but he has a great chance.
Auvray Currently $20 bet now. For those that play Betfair and want to back him I’m positive you will get $401 on the day. Ex D K Weir and even he couldn’t get him out of 2nd gear. The ambulance drivers will really have to concentrate to make sure they don’t run over this bloke as he is stopping on the turn. Wouldn’t win with a head start.
Old North Currently $6 bet now. Unfortunately his another gunna. He hasn’t won in over 12months but to be fair Beadman hasn’t had him that long and like most of them Beadman seems to have improved him. His old form under O’Shea has ratings to win and so has some hope now having had some time with Beadman. Some hope.
Berry Delicious $8 currently bet now. She is another who hasn’t won for over 12months. Her heavy track runs are sensational so that gives her a great chance here- but she has to contend with barrier 1 and her get back style and by this time the inside could be gone.
Lipari Currently $4.40 bet now. Has gone up favourite as the ratings nerds will have her down in class. She has run well this C & D and gets Atkins claim which is a plus and a minus. The horse is a swimmer in mud so that will be no problem. 7 day back up will only help also.
Loophole Currently $41 bet now. He is another who could start much longer on Betfair – he has been out of form and is looking for a wheelchair.
Sultan of Swing Currently $5 bet now. Normally races on speed but jumped poorly and was out the back- ran home well and now has an apprentice with his own gate issues but riding a horse who they will all be convinced has no weight and we must lead. His run was good but in comparison to Sound Proposition in the race is poorly weighted but does have youth on his side.
Zayam Currently $26 bet now. Not with a head start.

 

It’s a tricky race as if you don’t like the favourite in Lipari you basically have to back something that hasn’t won a race in over 12 months.

For mine I’d suggest backing the kids and the Kiwis. 3 units Sultan of Swing and 2 units Sound Proposition best tote with a saver on my mate Old North with the best senior jockey in the race engaged.

For those interested in winning regularly and getting my full set of selections – the yearly profit is over $5000 this year and I offer a $1000 money back guarantee that if you don’t win after 12 months. It is great value at $75/month.

Click here to join: http://bit.ly/2sXDq17LukeMurrellSelections

Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au  as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.

Good luck and happy punting!!

 

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