ROSEHILL
SATURDAY 25 AUGUST
TRACK: SOFT 5 (5.16) RAIL: +6M
BEST BETS:
Race 9 No.3 PARET
BEST WAY TO PLAY RACE 7
Only three winning chances and their current prices are:
9 Avilius $1.90
13 I Am Serious $8.50
3 Emperor’s Way $7.00
Have a small bet on the 3 and 13 at nice odds
Then have a quinella 9 stand-out from 3, 13
Good luck
Race 1
7 – 2 – 9 – 11
Not an easy race to start the day and I feel like I am giving BELLA SUCCESS too many chances but I like the run he gets here with a nice tempo and the step up to 1500m. He has to perform here otherwise I will have to sack him. Mandylion has turned in two good runs this preparation and from a soft draw looks to be a major chance. Palmateer returns from Melbourne where he was able to win in dominant style last time out and with only a kilo over the limit here he can easily win again. Eugene’s Pick is lightly raced and looking for three wins on the trot and although this is a step up she looks capable of figuring especially on the limit ands from a nice inside gate.
Race 2
3 – 9 – 4 – 2
It gets more difficult here in the second with any of the runners capable of winning. I’ve ended up with LETTER TO JULIETTE who won with authority first up and with three weeks to get over that effort she can make it two on the run. Royal Stamp was very good here two weeks ago and prior to that wasn’t beaten far behind Letter To Juliette who meets her a kilo better off and will likely get a better run in transit. Impavido finally got another win last start albeit at Wyong but that confidence booster may give him a kick. Estikhraaj will always be around the mark in this grade while Trafalgar, Itsa Fait Accompli and Valentino Rossa can all show up without surprising.
Race 3
8 – 6 – 1 – 3
The favourite COMMON PURPOSE will be hard to beat as he has looked ultra impressive at his two wins since resuming following a year off the scene but he will need luck in the first 100m or so as he has drawn poorly. His danger and only due to the better gate I have put HIGHWAY SIXTYSIX on top who won very good winning at Randwick seven weeks ago. His trainer Danny Williams trialled him to keep him up to the mark and he cruised through that test. Equal Balance is the other hope who resumes off a ten week break and even with the big weight he is the other winning chance.
Race 4
2 – 1 – 13 – 5
She Knows comes here off a seven week freshen up and is sure to appreciate the easier grade than who she raced last campaign when she won a few races and ran close placings in several others. To offset the drop in grade she shoots up in weight and will be carrying 63.5kg with Bowman aboard. SINGLE BULLET gets barrier one and from there he should be able to find a nice tagging spot on the likely leaders Puppet Master and Don’t Tease Me. He returns off the back of two very smart barrier trials and as a gelding so this is the time he needs to step up. Sanglier returns from Melbourne where he ran well first up at Moonee Valley over the flying 1000m. He gets the big weight pull over his main rivals and from a nice barrier should be right around the mark.
Race 5
8 – 1 – 6 – 5
It may be a relatively small field for the San Domenico but gee I have found it a difficult race to have a firm opinion. That said I have settled on NEUTRALITY who made me sit up and take notice when he won on debut back in November and then nothing went right when well beaten behind Sunlight and the Golden Slipper winner Estijaab. Two-year-old form is not 3yo form but I have liked his trials and if he can jump cleanly he will take plenty of running down. Chris Waller has always had a big opinion of Performer and is ready to go first up following a recent trial where his rider made him chase and find the line. Graff resumes and although this may be short of his best Kris Lees has added the blinkers to help him. Plague Stone will have the fitness edge having raced twice this campaign and looks a major winning player.
Race 6
3 – 5 – 11 – 1
I think if DANAWI can back up from last Saturday when a gallant second to Master Ash and put in just as good an effort he will be hard to run down here. He looks to get control of the race and if allowed to dictate he will give a big sight. Aramayo is a new kid on the block who turns up here off a dominant win at Canterbury albeit over 1550m and now he drops back to 1400m. Onthetake is a quality filly and if the luck falls her way from the wide gate she can play a role while Outrageous will have to overcome the outside barrier albeit the step up to 1400m is in his favour. Mizzy looks huge over’s at $151 having drawn barrier one and being third up with pretty solid form albeit in easier races behind her.
Race 7
9 – 13 – 3 – 16
I think it’s a simple equation if AVILIUS can repeat his debut Australian run three weeks ago he will likely win again. He will likely get back and look to come with a big burst that included a good sprint and it’s a matter can he dash like that again. I Am Serious is the big query for me as she comes here after a slashing first up run albeit over 1400m and now jumps straight to 1900m. If Chris Waller has her ready to go at this trip the short priced fav Avilius will know she’s here. Emperor’s Way has been building towards a win and being fourth up here he must be given some thought.
Race 8
3 – 9 – 11 – 10
TREKKING didn’t get the luck first up yet he was still able to dig deep under pressure and find a way to win. If he can bounce off that run he will be hard to beat again here. Miss Que was just about as good as Trekking first up and from gate two she will get the last shot at them here. Intuition gets barrier one and with three weeks between runs which has been winning he is capable of winn9ing three on the trot. Don’t Give A Damn is undefeated first up and a winner of five from eight so he has to be respected here as a major player.
Race 9
3 – 6 – 10 – 2
When the fields first came out I thought PARET will need some luck from the wide barrier but after going through the race I think he can travel where Bowman wants and pick them up. He showed his win two starts ago was no fluke with a dominant win here two weeks ago and to my eye he’ll will bring up three on the trot. Sanctioned gets gate one and will likely have a start over Paret as they straighten and should be cherry ripe following two runs back this preparation. Mapmaker will enjoy a nice run on-pace and give a sight. Eagle Bay needs to show us he is as good as the raps that cam with him from New Zealand.
QUADDIE:
1st leg: 3, 5
2nd leg: 3, 9, 13
3rd leg: 3, 9, 10, 11
4th leg: 3
Cost $24 = 100%