The $6,000,000 Melbourne Cup is run at 3pm on the first Tuesday in November and all of Australia will stop to watch the greatest handicap staying event in the world.
Here are my selections for the big race:
Top Four
1st – 9 Max Dynamite
2nd – 5 Marmelo
3rd – 2 Almandin
4th – 15 Boom Time
Best Roughies –
No. 15 Boom Time
No. 24 Cismontane
Below is my in-depth look at every runner in the 3200m race to try and sort out who can and can’t win the Cup.
Here’s my runner by runner preview for the race that stops the nation, the Melbourne Cup.
1 HARTNELL (12): Best price $31 with Neds
Authorized x Debonnaire – 7yo bay gelding
Weight – 57.5kg
Trainer – James Cummings
Jockey – Damian Lane
Ran third in the race last year and his recent form suggests that he wants this trip. He is a top class horse that has mixed it with the best, but I don’t think he is the same horse this preparation.
2 ALMANDIN (14) : Best price $10 with Centrebet
Monsun x Anatola – 7yo bay gelding
Weight – 56.5kg
Trainer – Robert Hickmott
Jockey – Frankie Dettori
Won this race last year like a serious animal and I am happy to forgive his last start failure in the Bart Cummings. Team Williams will have this horse rock hard fit now and think Frankie Dettori will give this horse every chance from barrier 14.
It is very hard to win back-to-back cups and the rise in weight is a big worry, but I can’t ignore this animal because he is one of the classiest stayers in the world on his day. Top three chance.
3 HUMIDOR (13) : Best price $10 with Neds
Teofilo x Zalika – 5yo bay gelding
Weight – 56kg
Trainer – Darren Weir
Jockey – Blake Shinn
Ran a brave race in the Caulfield Cup and then ran another huge race behind the world’s best horse, Winx, in the Cox Plate.
He has drawn well and I do think he is top class, but I don’t know if he a genuine stayer and I personally believe he is well under the odds.
4 TIBERIAN (23) : Best price $31 with Centrebet
Tiberius Caesar x Toamasina – 6yo bay horse
Weight – 55.5kg
Trainer – Alain Couetil
Jockey – Olivier Peslier
This animal has shown very good ability overseas and I think his versatility will take him a long way in the Cup, but he is going to need plenty of luck from the horrible barrier.
5 MARMELO (16) : Best price $8.50 with Luxbet
Duke Of Marmalade x Capriolla – 5yo bay horse
Weight – 55kg
Trainer – Hughie Morrison
Jockey – Hugh Bowman
Settled back in the field and ran on like a good horse to finish sixth, in the Caulfield Cup, last start. He is a very consistent horse that will have no issues with this distance and I also like that Hugh Bowman has done plenty of work with this animal.
The wide barrier is a bit of an issue, but Bowman is a freakish jockey and I think Marmelo has the turn of foot to win a Melbourne Cup.
6 RED CARDINAL (24) : Best price $19 Neds
Montjeu x Notable – 6yo bay gelding
Weight – 55kg
Trainer – Andreas Wohler
Jockey – Kerrin McEvoy
German stayer from the same camp who won the Cup with Protectionist in 2014. He is another consistent horse in this race, but he was well beaten by Marmelo last start and his barrier is a major concern. Kerrin Mcevoy will get the best out of him and I think you will get much bigger odds on the day.
7 JOHANESS VERMEER (3) : Best price $10 Neds
Galileo x Inca Princess – 5yo bay horse
Weight – 54.5kg
Trainer – Aidan O’Brien
Jockey – Ben Melham
Was heavily backed in the Caulfield Cup, but he didn’t have much luck and had to settle for third placing. He is a very good animal that has drawn well and it’s not smart writing off Aidan O’Briens horses because the bloke is a genius, but Johannes Vermeer is under the odds and I don’t think he is a 3200m horse.
8 BONDI BEACH (1) : Best price $71 with Neds.
Galileo x One Moment In Time – 6yo bay gelding
Weight – 54kg
Trainer – Robert Hickmott
Jockey – Michael Walker
Has always promised plenty of ability and his barrier ensures a perfect run throughout the race. The blinkers will go on now and that could spark some improvement, but I don’t think he has the class to win a cup.
9 MAX DYNAMITE (2) : Best price $16 with Luxbet
Great Journey x Mascara – 8yo bay gelding
Weight – 54kg
Trainer – William Mullins
Jockey – Zac Purton
This Irish stayer should have nearly won this race when beaten by Prince Of Penzance, two years ago. He has been very lightly raced since then, which is a worry, but this animal will adore the light weight on his back and Zac Purton will give him a peach from barrier two. I like that this horse has raced well here in the past and I am happy to have something on him at the good each way odds. Go Maxy!
10 VENTURA STORM(6) : Best price $34 with Neds
Zoffany x Sarawati – 5yo bay horse
Weight – 54kg
Trainer – David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
Jockey – Glen Boss
Had excuses last start in the Caulfield Cup, so just ignore that effort. He has drawn perfectly, stays all day and his jockey, Glen Boss, knows a thing or two about winning this race. He is a tough horse, but I don’t think he has the zip to win.
11 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN – Scratched
Yamanin Vital x Ears Carol – 9yo bay gelding
12 WICKLOW BRAVE (8) : Best price $71 with Ladbrokes
Beat Hollow x Moraine – 9yo bay gelding
Weight – 54kg
Trainer – William Mullins
Jockey – Stephen Baster
Didn’t run too bad in the Caulfield Cup, but I would be shocked if he won the Cup this year.
13 BIG DUKE (5) : Best price $21 with Crownbet
Raven’s Pass x Hazarayna – 6yo bay gelding
Weight – 53.5kg
Trainer – Darren Weir
Jockey – Brenton Avdulla
Another imported stayer that has been racing well since arriving in Australia. He is a very fit animal, that has one of Australia best young jockeys on his back and barrier five is a lovely barrier. I think we will see a more mature galloper next preparation, but I still think he can run in the top 10 this year.
14 US ARMY RANGER (22) : Best price $67 with Neds
Galileo x Moonstone – 5yo bay horse
Weight – 53.5kg
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Jamie Spencer
His form is only fair and I can’t see this horse getting any luck from the wide barrier. I won’t have a ticket with his name on it.
15 BOOM TIME (9) : Best price $34 with William Hill
Flying Spur x Bit Of A Ride – 6yo bay horse
Weight – 53kg
Trainer – David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
Jockey – Cory Parish
The Caulfield Cup winner comes into this as an outsider again because a lot of people are saying that it wasn’t a strong Cup this year, but I can’t ignore his last start effort. He is going to get a gun run from the barrier and the 3200m is no concern at all. Boom Time must be included in all exotics.
16 GALLANTE (18) : Best price $126 with Centrebet
Montjeu x Crazy Volume – 7yo bay gelding
Weight – 53kg
Trainer – Robert Hickmott
Jockey – Michael Dee
His form is not good enough and this gelding could be caught very wide throughout. No thanks.
17 LIBRAN (7) : Best price $51 with Neds
Lawman x True Crystal – 7yo bay or brown gelding
Weight – 53kg
Trainer – Chris Waller
Jockey – Dwayne Dunn
Ran a much improved race at Moonee Valley last start and he is a quality horse on his day, but this is a Melbourne Cup and I will be very shocked if he wins.
18 NAKEETA (19) : Best price $34 with Neds
Sixties Icon x Easy Red – 7yo bay gelding
Weight – 53kg
Trainer – Iain Jardine
Jockey – Glyn Schofield
Comes into the Cup after a win in the Ebor last start and that is normally good form for this race, but Nakeeta is very one paced and barrier 19 is a massive worry. Not for me.
19 SINGLE GAZE (11) : Best price $51 with Neds
Not A Single Doubt x Redaluca’s Gaze – 5yo chestnut mare
Weight – 53kg
Trainer – Nick olive
Jockey – Ms Kathy O’Hara
Very honest mare that ran a huge race in the Caulfield Cup last start. I have a lot of time for this horse because she is so bloody tough and I think it would be a brilliant story if she won the cup, but she is only a little horse and I think she will struggle over the trip.
20 WALL OF FIRE (15) : Best price $13 with Ladbrokes
Canford Cliffs x Bright Sapphire – 5yo bay horse
Weight – 53kg
Trainer – Hugo palmer
Jockey – Craig Williams
Got back and stormed home to run second in the Herbert Power, last start, at Caulfield. His turn of foot is very good and the drop in weight will help, but his form over this trip is not very good and that is a major concern. He has the X-factor, but does he have the stamina?
21 THOMAS HOBSON (21) : Best price $19 with Crownbet
Halling x La Spezia – 8yo bay gelding
Weight – 52kg
Trainer –William Mullins
Jockey – Joao Moreira
Very good stayer from the UK that has been racing against some top class horses lately. He has the “Magic Man” on top, the distance is no concern and William Mullins is a great trainer, but I can’t back this horse with any confidence because of the terrible draw and he is too one paced for my liking.
22 REKINDLING (4) : Best price $14 with Neds
High Chaparral x Sitara – 4yo bay horse
Weight – 51.5kg
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Corey Brown
Another team Williams runner that comes to Australia with good form. His run in the St Leger last start was good, he has no weight on his back and barrier four ensures a soft run throughout, but he has had a long season and like most of these young European horses, there has to be a doubt over whether he is seasoned enough to win a Melbourne Cup.
23 AMELIE’S STAR (10) : Best price $19 with Neds
Testa Rossa x Zazita – 6yo bay mare
Weight – 51kg
Trainer – Darren Weir
Jockey – Dean Yendall
Was only fair last start in the Caulfield Cup, but I am happy to forgive that effort because she was ridden upside down. I have always had a big opinion of this mare and her win in the Bart Cummings was very good, but I don’t think she is a Melbourne Cup horse. I think we will see a much better horse next year.
24 CISMONTANE (17) : Best price $67 with Crownbet
High Chaparral x Viviane – 5yo bay gelding
Weight – 50kg
Trainer – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey – Beau Mertens (a)
Looked gone in the Lexus last week, but he kept trying all the way to the line and scored a nice win. This is much harder but he is very tough and I wouldn’t be shocked if this horse ran a massive race with no weight on his back.
Good luck and have a great day.
Adam Campton