SCONE

SATURDAY 12 MAY

TRACK:      GOOD 4  

RAIL:    +3m 800m-W/P, True remainder

 

 

 

 

BEST BET:       

 

Race 1             No.1    DROCHAID

 

Race 4             No.1    VILLERMONT

 

Race 7             No.1    GHISONI

 

 

 

Race 1

1* – 4 – 5 – 6

Originally I was playing it safe thinking this was a tricky race but I am now confident whoever beats DROCHAID will be getting the money. This 4yo has only raced in Australia on three occasions and each time he has been gradually been stepping up in trip from 1400m to 1600m then 1800m and now today’s journey of 2200m which I think he will relish. In these staying races it’s all about momentum and even with 60kg after the claim for Blaike McDougall as long as he can roll into the race I think he will take some holding out. The favourite Mazaz is the obvious danger and he will be tough as I think he is better at 2400m but I just doubt he has the dash that Drochaid has but he does have a strong rider in Brenton Avdulla. Equipped will likely roll to the front like last Saturday at Newcastle where he won easily and give the others something to chase. Mornington is the value runner if the luck falls his way.

 

 

Race 2

2 – 4 – 10 – 1  

How do you not tip CRADLE MOUNTAIN who is flying having won four on the trot and taken a step up in grade each time and still got the job done with consummate ease? The combination of Clare Cunningham and Jason Collett are flying on and off the track and this horse is the flagship for the stable and doing a super job. There only looks one real threat but if Cradle Mountain is able to dominate from the top it’s hard seeing him being beaten. Malahat took a few strides to find his top first up then looked home to the stablemate Ozark collared him late and with that run under his belt he is sure to strip fitter here. The extra 100m will be a help as both his career wins have come at even further being the 1200m trip. From a good gate I imagine his rider Blake Shinn won’t allow Cradle Mountain to have too much of a break and then we will see who is the better horse in the final furlong.

 

 

Race 3

3 – 1 – 2 – 8

Smallest field of the day but I reckon the toughest betting race with almost any of the ten runners capable of winning. I have settled on WITHERSPOON who is first up having not raced since the Magic Millions when well beaten but prior to that she ran third in both the Calaway Gal Stakes and the group 3 BJ McLachlan stakes. From a soft gate here and going off her nice effort in winning a recent barrier trial she should run well. Miss Invincible I thought won a weak Wellington Boot but when she was able to run second last Saturday behind Gem Song she made me think she has got some handy ability. From barrier one she will get every chance to figure. Miss Scorcher has been very impressive winning her latest two at Kembla then at wagga during their carnival and with a high natural cruising speed I am sure she will be in this for a long way. Pretty In Pink is one from one and looked impressive in that performance to as long as she gets luck from the awkward gate she will be amongst it.

 

 

Race 4

1* – 8 – 3 – 2

It won’t be easy but I am banking on the class of VILLERMONT to get him over the line first in the Inglis Guineas this afternoon. Three of his past four runs have been over a mile with the other at 2000m and today he drops back to 1400m but with Blake Shinn on board and a good gate I think he can settle handy and his class will make sure he is in the money. The favourite Moss Trip has drawn wide and will likely settle back but she will be charging hard in the straight. Her latest run was impressive when coming from the back off an even tempo to win the group 3 James Carr. Assimilate drops back 200m in trip which looks to suit while Dissolution drops back 600m and although that seems a lot I think he better at a mile so he could get away with it.

 

 

Race 5

1 – 3 – 5 – 4

Tricky race but I have settled on the class up the top with DEMERARA who turns up here off a five week freshen up after having little luck at Randwick in the group 3 P j Bell behind Houtzen. She has trialled smartly to have her ready for today and as long as she gets an inch of luck from the wide draw she will be in the spoils somewhere. Sasso Corbaro has one big asset many don’t and that is a brilliant turn of speed so you can never rule her out. She has looked in good order at the trials and if she can find a spot to utilise her brilliance she will be in the major money. She Knows had a walk in the park winning the Highway race at Hawkesbury but the start prior she was beaten just on three lengths by the toppy Demerara at Flemington who she meets 5.5kgs better off and she was probably on the slower section of the track so she is a massive player. Resin and Sheikha are the other winning chances to my eye.

 

 

Race 6

10 – 11 – 4 – 2 

It’s hard not to select OSBORNE BULLS on top as he is low flying and finds a race with what looks like good speed and with only 53kg on his back he will be coming hard in the straight and is sure to be hard to hold out. He is a winner of six from nine starts with a couple of near misses and unlike a few he is in good form. No knock on Rachel King but he can look a handful and be a little hard to handle so it’s just a thought when you are diving into $2.3. Firsthand was outstanding first up in a race dominated by the on-pacers and is a winner of two f54rom three second up. He is another that will appreciate a fairly strong tempo and he has Avdulla on top who rode both Firsthand and Osborne Bulls last start. Don’t underestimate the old boy Red Excitement fresh as he is class and I doubt any other horse in this field could have scared the hell out of Winx.

 

 

Race 7

1* – 11 – 12 – 2

I am banking on the wide barrier getting a better price for GHISONI who I think will get the chocolates in the Coolmore Dark Jewel Classic 1400m. Her two runs this time have been ok especially the latest where she attacked the line to just fail at Hawkesbury but to add some spark to her James Cummings has added the blinkers and stepped her up to 1400m. Slow Burn was solid in the race when coming from the back while Siren’s Fury who has drawn gate one could surprise at odds with a soft run and her ability to dash quickly. I am keen on Ghisoni but outside her you could throw anything in the placings.

 

 

Race 8

14 – 1 – 3 – 11

TO EXCESS is building a pretty handy record with five wins and five placings from 13 starts but he faces his toughest test to date taking on the likes of Terravista, Kuro, Glenall and Spending To Win. That’s aid this 4yo gelding has beaten up some handy types while carrying weight and with only 53kg on his back today and judging by his recent barrier trial he is ready to rock ‘n’ roll. Terravista at his best would eat this lot and even with a big weight and a wide draw he is not to be underestimated in this type of race. He might be looking down the barrel on being a nine-year0old but there is still life in the big boy. Glenall and Spending To Win ran the quinella in the feature sprint a fortnight ago at Hawkesbury’s big meeting and look players again here while the blinkers go back on Kuro.

 

 

QUADDIE:

 

1^st leg:             1, 2, 3, 4, 5

2^nd leg:             2, 4, 10, 11

3^rd leg:             1

4^th leg:             1, 3, 11, 14

 

Cost $80 = 100%