WARWICK FARM

WEDNESDAY 23 AUGUST

 

TRACK:                        GOOD 3                       RAIL:    TRUE

 

BEST BET:        Race 3             No.2     Al Mah Haha  $2.6 bet now

VALUE BET:     Race 5             No.2     Argent D’or  $5.5 bet now

 

Race 1

3-4-1-5

 

3 PANDEMONIUM will scoot through and lead and if she relaxes at all during the run she should give a kick and hold these at bay. She’s a promising filly with loads of ability but still does a few things wrong. 4 AUGUSTUS will be ready following two runs this campaign including the latest where he was a 21-day break and stepped from 1100m to 1550m. 6 PRIDE OF DARCI was impressive winning on debut at Taree and looks to have plenty of upsides but looks under the odds for me.

BET:     Backing 3 PANDEMONIUM  $2.05 bet now

Save stake on 4 AUGUSTUS

 

 

Race 2

5-6-7-3

 

Not a race that I am excited about.

5 QUEEN OF HEIGHTS surprised me last start how far she stuck on here over the 2200m and in a race with a lack of speed she should get a cozy run near the front and prove hard to beat. 6 DON PELLEGRINO comes through the same race and was very good after settling a mile back. The lack of speed here is a big concern. 7 PRESSCOTT is the query runner as he comes to Sydney with a totally different form line from the Melbourne base of Chris Waller. He has raced down south with little luck but falls into a winner able race.

BET:     Staying race so I’ll have something small on both 5 QUEEN OF HEIGHTS & 7 PRESSCOTT  $2.8 bet now

 

 

Race 3

2-1-5-10

 

2 AL MAH HAHA looks a promising colt and off the back of two very good runs he gets his chance to record his maiden victory here. Chris Waller has added blinkers while stepping him up a furlong and putting Hugh Bowman in the saddle. From a good game, he should get a soft run behind the likely leaders Cook Straight and Smartedge who has had the blinkers added. 1 DISSOLUTION is first up having not raced since running a close second in the Ken Russell memorial on the Gold Coast back in May. The gate may make things awkward but he looks the big threat to AL MAH HAHA.

BET:     Having a good crack at 2 AL MAH HAHA  $2.6 bet now

 

 

Race 4

2-1-7-3

 

2 NICTOCK kind of picks himself here as he should be able to find the front and if he finds a kick similar to the last start at Canterbury he will get away with another win. Hugh Bowman stays aboard and although he drops back a 100m to the flying 1000m it should suit him even more. 1 REALISE POTENTIAL looks the obvious threat and if the pressure is strong up front and 2 Nictock finds the 61kg too much to handle he is the one that will be there to run over them even with 61.5kg

BET:     Backing 2 NICTOCK  $1.75 bet now

 

 

Race 5

2-3-7-4

 

This is the race we can play. There looks three winning chance to my eye 2 ARGENT D’OR, 3 FORTENSKY and 7 KOKOPU.

2 ARGENTD’OR is a query at the mileage not raced over the distance and will likely get back on the run but I am banking on his turn of speed to run over the top in the run to the line. He is coming back from a good solid race to a moderate midweek and looks a good gamble to me. 3 FORTENSKY races well here and is in good form and although drawn deep he looks to roll forward and find a nice spot. 7 KOKOPU has won two in a row albeit at Dubbo then Kembla Grange but from a perfect barrier here he is drawn to get a very soft run.

BET:     Backing 2 ARGENT D’OR each way  $5.5 bet now

 

 

Race 6

14-12-13-5

 

Every man including the hot dog seller is tipping 14 I AM SERIOUS. The son of Choisir has won three from three albeit in the bush when trained by Bob Haire but for this campaign has switched to Chris Waller. His two trials have been outstanding including the latest where he was narrowly beaten by group one sprinter Takedown. There looks good speed here with Eccellere and Eminent Duke being the quickest which should help Jay Ford find a spot aboard I AM SERIOUS. Outside of him, I think there is nothing between 1, 5, 10, 12 & 13.

BET:     Backing 14 I AM SERIOUS  $3.2 bet now

 

 

Race 7

9-14-11-6

 

There looks good tempo here Gretna likely to shoot through and lead but is sure to have a company with He’s A Given and Bolero King while I doubt Skylimit and Jemadar won’t be far away from the speed.

14 ROYAL NAVY is first up from a good barrier and should be ready off two good trials.

The value runners for me here if you are looking wide are 11 Shotgun Roulette, 12 Heartlings and 6 Bolero King.

BET:     Backing 14 Royal Navy  $2.7 bet now

Box quinella 6, 11, 12 & 14 = 6 combinations