Tuesday November 7
1 HARTNELL Takes his name from actor William, known as Billy or Bill Hartnell who was the first incarnation of Doctor Who. Ran 3rd in this last year with 1.5kg less. Last horse to run 3rd the previous year and win was Phar Lap (1929). (Hyperno did it two years apart). Has the name Cummings as trainer but that’s not Bart (who won 12), but grandson James (who with grandpa had Precedence 6th in 2014) and has the name Godolphin in the ownership and they are 20 year maidens. Damien Lane was off sacked Humidor but rode Beautiful Romance (7th) for Godolphin last year. Once the second best horse in Australia behind Winx, one poor run in the Caulfield Stakes has seen him slide down the order, as he is likely to do here. And the Cup seems to have almost emerged as an afterthought after dodging Winx this spring so preparation questionable. Makybe Diva is the the last No 1 to win (completing the trilogy). You had to go back to Rising Fast in 1954 before that and barrier 12 last produced the winner in 1949 (Foxzami). NO!
2 ALMANDIN which is the common red variety of garnet of course or otherwise known as the defending Cup champion and that’s no easy task unless you are Makybe Diva who did that twice or before that Think Big (1974/75). And that’s what team Williams are doing here – thinking big with six runners. Lost three time Cup winning jockey Damien Oliver for a red hot Frankie Dettori but he also is a Cup maiden from 14 attempts going to back to the Vintage Crop game change in 1993 where Frankie rode Drum Taps and going closest with Max Dynamite two years ago (outridden by Michelle Payne). Brilliant at Flemington (beating Crocodile Rock), moderate in the Bart Cummings behind Amelie’s Star. Has 4.5kg more this year. Will be a most famous of victories with Lloyd and mate Frankie and history but can he do it? YES!
3 HUMIDOR got close but no cigar (of course a humidor is where you keep them – an airtight container that keeps the tobacco moist) – behind Winx in the Cox Plate, but no horse has ever gone so close to the world’s best. Ridden poorly in the Caulfield Cup before that and Weir, whose last Cup runner was his winner Prince Of Penzance switched to Blake Shinn already a winner on Viewed. An Australian Cup winner in the autumn, a dashing winner of the Makybe Diva in the spring. He’s the first horse in a decade to have a crack at the “2 Cups And A Plate” and makes a compelling case for me. Dunaden carried this saddlecloth in 2011. TOP PICK
4 TIBERIAN Yes we know the teaser pony stallion story about Tiberius Caesar, the Roman Emperor from 14AD to 37AD and the horse carrying on its name! Colors went close with Heartbreak City last year and form franked by Talismanic winning the Breeders Cup on Sunday. This horse with two wins over it this campaign and that ties in with Marmelo who ran 2nd to it over 2800m in July. Will go forward to offset the 22 that Gurner’s Lane navigated from under Mick Dittman to beat Kingston Town in 1982. Has a world class jockey in Pelier who at his first ride in Australia got suspended. Owners have sourced Dandino and Jakalberry before Heartbreak City and seem close to getting it right. Has to do it first run here, which is not a plus, but profiles well. YES.
5 MARMELO by Duke Of Marmalade hence the origin of the name being a Portugese word for quince (or could be the Brazilian football player Marmelo da Silver. Hugh Bowman won’t have Winx underneath him for his first Melbourne Cup win but comes through a powerful controlling on pace win in the Prix Kergorlay (Protectionist, Americain) then the obvious eye catcher from back in Caulfield Cup with stunning sectionals. He’s in the right weight zone with 55kg but the best tip is Hughie riding 54.5kg. First time Cup trainer Hughie Morrison, this year offered a 10,000 pound reward as he sort to clear his name after a horse tested positive an anabolic steroid. That inquiry remains ongoing. He’s a man to speak his mind and talented at training flat and jumping horses. This will be a huge leap of faith and can he do it. A big YES!
6 RED CARDINAL – useless research will tell you “the red cardinal has long been held as the most notable spiritual messenger. The male cardinals are certainly hard to ignore with their striking red feathers and melodic yet almost “pay-attention-to-me” chirps.” What you have to ignore is his failure in the Kergolay behind Marmelo after he had won in Germany and the US (Wicklow Brave and Wall Of Fire well in arrears) going into it. Trainer, owners (Protectionist) and jockey (Brew and Almandin) are already Cup winners. # 6 has won the Cup 9 times (4 & 12 with 11 wins the most successful. After scratching of Who Shot Thebarman, starts from 23, the same alley as Heartbreak City last year. History says no runs in Australia is a negative. Top 10.
7 JOHANESS VERMEER (otherwise known as Jan or Johann he was a Dutch painter who specialized in domestic interior scenes of middle-class life. Regarded as a “moderately successful” provincial genre painter in his lifetime, he died broke. Former owners (Coolmore) indeed did have a horse named Jan Vermeer before naming this one Johannes and won a Group 1 race as a 2YO. Now under the Team Williams and powerful friends ownership banner (though still trained by Aiden O’Brien) he resurrected the old Caulfield Cup form line for the Melbourne Cup with an eye-catching third perhaps belittling the form card that states he hasn’t won past 2012m. If he wins Australia’s most famous race he could certainly enter rhyming slang joining “D K Weir” for beer! Oh the trainer has won a record 26 Group 1 races this season, but the Melbourne Cup has never been kind to him. Jockey Melham rode Grand Marshal last year (11th). Yes!
8 BONDI BEACH His best run in Australia was in this race last year finishing 13th, he ran 16th the year before as a 3YO but his two preparatory runs for this year suggested he’d be better off on Bondi Beach than slugging around two miles at Flemington on Tuesday even despite the addition of blinkers. Best hope is to draw him in the sweep that pays handsomely for last. NO
9 MAX DYNAMITE No horse in race history comes off a hurdle (failure) and a conditions race at that for amateur jockeys (carrying 73kg for Patrick Mullins, son of the excellent trainer Willie (4th Simenon as well here). Owned by the colourful Barclays Banker Richie Rich, once described by The Independent Newspaper as “Who’s The Fat Cat In A Hat” so he bought a horse and called in Fatcatinahat. He also supported Alaskan governor Sarah Palin in her failed White House big as running partner for John McCain. Anyway Max will need some dynamite this year to give Zac Purton some joy after the disasters of Admire Rakti and Fame Game. NO
10 VENTURA STORM Have always had this horse amongst top thoughts for Cup but lost faith in Caulfield Cup though “they” say a foot abscess was the problem. Oliver virtually said “needs gelding” but previously beat home Humidor in Turnbull behind Winx. Horse has been over the world like a real Ventura from France, to Scotland to Italy. Then bought by a syndicate headed by former racing.com boss Scott Perrin and including Fiorente part-owner Barry Pang as well as Rupert Legh’s (Chautauqua) team. Glen Boss (replacing suspended Regan Bayliss) rides the Melbourne Cup better than any modern day jockey (and that apart from the Makybe Diva trilogy). A win wouldn’t shock, but can’t now place it in my top 4. But YES!
11 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN – The vets did. Out of the race with an elevated temperature.
12 WICKLOW BRAVE – so he boasted an Irish St Leger win over the hugely powerful stayer Order Of St George last year then came out and could only beat two home in Almandin’s Cup. He’s been hurdling again since as well as a 2nd to Rekindling and a 4th (Order Of St George) in this year’s St Leger. Not a factor in the Caulfield Cup. Reckon Baster would have been better sticking with Cismontane (but you have to take a ride). Ok so #12 is the equal most winning saddlecloth (11 times – Makybe Diva 2003 latest, Jameka carried it last year as fav) NO.
13 BIG DUKE He was previously called Swashbuckling and won a race at a track called Wetherby in May 2016 so it has been a huge rise to run as a chance from a small off season track in West Yorkshire to here for D K Weir in the 2017 Cup. He’s won a Launceston Cup then a rare Weir Sydney triumph in the Mannion Cup and Chairman’s (both times beating Team Williams horses). He’d keep Sydney form high with the St Leger win (over old timer Auvray and Lexus winner Cismontane) then no luck in the Moonee valley Cup, the race that took Prince of Penzance to the Cup. He draws the same barrier as Fiorente and carried the Protectionist/Red Cardinal colours). Melbourne raised Brenton Avdulla is chasing a maiden Cup win at first ride. YES
14 US ARMY RANGER The United States Army Rangers are an elite rapid-deployment military formation of the US Army, that serve in designated U.S. Army Ranger units or are graduates from the U.S. Army Ranger School. The term ranger has been in use unofficially in a military context since the early 17th century. So there you go. This one trained by SOA (son of Aiden – Joseph) and part of the Team Williams Posse. Ok so he’s an English Derby runner-up but hasn’t won off that form in nine runs since, the only reference may be a 3rd at Royal Ascot over 4355m (Thomas Hobson was 2nd) and an 9th in the Goodwood Cup (well held behind runner-up Big Orange, which Jamie Spencer rode last year) and rides here. If superstar dad trainer Aiden O’Brien hasn’t won it with better cattle, this isn’t the horse for Joseph to do so. NO
15 BOOM TIME Not often a Caulfield Cup winner goes in a Melbourne Cup a $26 chance generally though Johannes Vermeer and Marmelo are high rated off that race. Sadly named as original owner Kim Loxton and his Ferrari Racing and Breeding operation are under administrators orders and Racing Victoria re looking into the details of the horses sale to new owner and co-trainer David Hayes who enjoyed the boom and big pay day of the Caulfield Cup. (Peter Moody trained the horse for three non-win runs coming from Trevor Andrews in WA before “retiring”). He’s by a Golden Slipper winner Flying Spur out of Snippets mare, breeding buffs would doubt his 2 mile credentials (he failed on a heavy in the Sydney Cup) but they would have into a Caulfield Cup. Or stable provincial and country jockey Cory Parish getting the job done, but he did at Caulfield also at his first ride in that race. But NO!
16 GALLANTE Another space filler for Team Williams but they can. He’s a Sydney Cup winner of 2016 (beating Libran), ran 2nd to Jameka in last year’s Naturalism which should have been good enough form until he ran 20th in last year’s Cup and this short preparation lacks lustre. Gets the yellow cap in the Team Williams squad but not the yellow jersey. But impossible to fashion any possible credentials. Unless Van Der Hum weather arrives, he has none. If you want any more this barrier has never provided a Cup winner. NO
17 LIBRAN – Wasn’t even born under the sign (born April 11 2011) so he should be an Arian. Won his maiden on debut for Alan Swinbank over 1400m in Scotland before coming into to high end Highclere Thoroughbreds portfolio (they had Distinction run 6th and 19th in the last two Makybe Diva wins). A 2nd to Gallante in a Sydney Cup isn’t good enough but he was sound last time running 2nd to the now missing Who Shot TheBarman in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Trainer who has won everything hasn’t fired in this, nor has jockey D Dunn. NO
18 NAKEETA from the Greek derivation meaning unconquered but was bred and raced without victory by trainer Mick Channon (pivotal to Craig Williams career) before ending up in the Scottish hands of Iain Jardine. He trains at a place called Hetlandhill in Carrutherstown and “our main objective is to have a cheery and experienced team…” says the former rider in “flapping races” When Nakeeta won his maiden he beat at Pontefract he beat Kinema! But he does had a little form around Heartbreak City if you want to dig deep enough. The Scots link to the Cup comes through Mark Johnston and Double Trigger eta al. But Nakeeta brings the Heartbreak City form as a stayer on win in the Ebor Handicap (Purple Moon also) last start, but like him is trying to win the Cup first up in Australia –don’t like that. So a Scot takes a South African in Glyn Schofield – (who rode Prized Icon to win the Victoria Derby last year), for this son of Sixties Icon this year and has run 3rd on Mourilyan but NO.
19 SINGLE GAZE A Caulfield Cup runner-up without the penalty like Makybe Diva maybe? The remarkable story of a Golden Slipper runner, eg Criterion, running and with a chance in a Cup. A $70k Magic Millions yearling with Kathy O’Hara’s soldered onto her saddle (only Dunn/Oliver/Berry have ridden her) – and without success in a 27 starts career (for Canberra trainer Nick Olive). She’s had the old fashioned never miss a dance lead-up run to the Cup via Memsie/Makybe Diva/Underwood/Caulfield Stakes then brave Cup 2nd chasing up Sir Isaac Newton. I can’t see her winning but if you like her she has the right form credentials. Top 10.
20 WALL OF FIRE Ok has failed in two mile contests – Dubai in March where failed Melbourne Cup runner Beautiful Romance ran 2nd then in America where Red Cardinal won and he finished 8th. Still have to like his Herbert Power run that convinced C Williams (yet to win this after missing Dunaden through suspension) to go that way and he drops 5kg on that run for this. Trainer Hugo Palmer (wife Australian and already a G1 Classic winner this season) is the new breed go ahead stable (even sponsored by Champagne Pol Roger) and having a stellar season. But not convinced Wall Of Fire is a winning chance but certainly Top 10
21 THOMAS HOBSON was an English carrier of the 17th century best known as the origin of the expression Hobson’s Choice. The next of the Willie Mullins team with Hong Kong based star Joao Moreira (runner-up last year on Heartbreak City and 4th Signoff the only previous ride but modern Australian record is a shadow of HK strike rate.) But he was booked a long time out. TH is on 52kg for a dangerous reason though his most recent win reads a surging 4023m win in the first day of Royal Ascot. Doing this first-up in Australian is such a tough task and ignoring the strong Werribee spruik at my peril to say NO but Top 10.
22 REKINDLING Best pick for Joseph O’Brien and Team Williams. English St Leger un a pass, after solid 2nd Order of St George in St leger Trial. Beat Wicklow Brave of softer ground in Curragh Cup. But another bravely trying to do this off no prior Aussie run. Jockey Corey Brown is obviously an asset winning on Shocking from a wide gate and sitting 3 wide to do so. If rain comes – it doesn’t in Melbourne and Flemington a super drying track anyway. Its only start #10 for this bloke, which means he’s a virtual 3yo with a barrow to push. NO
23 AMELIE’S STAR A horse by a Magic Millions in Testa Rossa, raced by breeders and originally trained by Peter Moody. Not sure who Amelie was but no horse with “Star” in its name has even won the Cup. But then none of them were trained by D K Weir. Ridden against instructions in the Caulfield Cup after brilliant Bart Cummings win (race last year won by Almandin and behind it this year). Dean Yendall, a loyal servant and cog in the Weir machine (and G1 winner Saturday – Shoals) gets rewarded with the ride (finally) and his first Cup ride. The last #23 to win was Rainbird back in 1945 – just saying. A certain YES.
24 CISMONTANE which apparently means situated on the nearer side of mountains if that helps. This has been the longest preparation for any Melbourne Cup runner culminating in a win and in ugly victory in the Lexus. Of course Gai has won this with Fiorente, now apprentice Beau Mertens gets the late call up with Saturday’s winning jockey Stephen Baster not wanting to miss out and go elsewhere before the tenacious Flemington Derby Day win. Owners who paid $200k for the horse may have wanted to do the same when it ran down the track on debut at Kembla then needed a year off to show little more. Buy Gai has a Cup runner and she’s a great story for the race. Beau Mertens too. But NO!
MELBOURNE CUP SELECTIONS
3 HUMIDOR
5 MARMELO
4 TIBERIAN
23 AMELIE’S STAR
ROUGHIE
10 VENTURA STORM
