FLEMINGTON
FLEMINGTON Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day
Grand meeting (though you probably dodge race 2) but spring stars resuming, autumn stars confirming their credentials and Weir heavy handed in numerous races. Let’s get stuck in. You know how Flemington races.
BEST BET: KINGS WILL DREAM (race 4#7)
BEST VALUE: Specking something on GRUNT at the $9 Race 7 #16
BEST VALUE:
Race 1: 10-2-1-9
Positive early betting move for 1st starter PIERRO BELLE ($300k Pierro) off back of impressive trial Adelaide and this stable leading the way in Melbourne (alongside Lindsay Park) with youngsters this season. Not sure its another Kinky Boom but it comes here as prepared. PRAIRIE FIRE gets blinkers after good debut when sound late. SANGLIER has had the benefit of an early season preparation including experience up straight. Form around it (Long Leaf/Oohood) and recent jump out reads well. NUCLEAR BLITZ ($300k Sepoy) is the other 1st starter to be respected, related to Winx and has shown jump out ability.
SUGGESTED: Good race, money and trial says PIERRO BELLE will go close.
Race 2: 4-2-3-5
Still sticking with MR CHURCHILL if you must get involved. – yes every chance at 1st crack 2000m Caulfield where Bedford won well. Fitter for that, reckon this weaker and may be ridden touch quieter to finish off as did here two runs back. Claim and drop in grade suits KHUTULUN but still a Flemington maiden after 8 tries. IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS won a weak BM 70 after many tries now blinkers go back on and once Weir horses find form they normally keep it together. But he’s no star. CRY IF I WANT TO is best this distance range and now a quick winner this campaign at 2nd run in. This harder though. Wish MIDAS MAN ran Fri night, though see why it goes here against this lot for $120k.
SUGGESTED: Another crack at MR CHURCHILL.
Race 3: 3-4-6-7
Not much between MAMZELLE TESS and SHARING thought the way that race was run gave an advantage here towards the chances of the former who was 1100m to 1400m there. SPANISH REEF the respected runner resuming, can easily win this. BELLARIA is racing well, winning 3/5 for Weir this prep, toughest test here but no reason why not.
SUGGESTED: Slight leaning MAMZELLE TESS.
Race 4: 7-2-5-8
This is an exciting horse KINGS WILL DREAM. Impressive through the BM 64 and 70 wins 1st two Aussie starts and would only think 1600m now gets into a better distance range. And only has to carry 55.5kg now Wins. SIN TO WIN is a talent and never runs poorly, like they go 1600m fresh for this campaign. SO POYSED is in impressive form (beat THE AVENGER) with distinction last start and form ties in with DOWNHEARTED who is back to 1600m and that is a plus.
SUGGESTED: be surprised if KINGS WILL DREAM doesn’t win.
Race 5: 13-3-6-7
Not knocking winner EURACK (it’s a legit star), but HANDSOME THIEF was huge at Caulfield, suspect the straight 1200m tailor made with a hold up dash home, especially with 54kg. KEN’S DREAM is better performed from this stable than top pick and was good 1100m win here before taking on weight-for-age. LEODORO finally got it all right at Sale, was good chasing this track and distance prior. Respecting. ATLANTIC CITY/PORTMAN best of remainder.
SUGGESTED: HANDSOME THIEF to explode here late.
Race 6: 7-1-4-6
Have become a PARIS ROCK convert – at least for this race. May not be (isn’t) the best horse in the race, but the who for me profiles best in this and had to admire what she did at Caulfield (albeit with tempo to suit) which gives it a fitness edge and a touch of the untapped still here. ALOISA has the runs on board and hard to ignore the spring formlines though it took a 1400m resumption to get her moving. TWITCHY FRANK was poorly ridden at Caulfield giving Paris Rock the platform to make it look poor. Doubt they’ll get it wrong again and again has the fitness edge. ANCHOR BID resumed from same stable. She got a long way in one long 1st campaign.
SUGGESTED: PARIS ROCK here but form race for future to watch.
Race 7: 1-13-16-9
Was a CLIFF’S EDGE doubter 1st-up and class told at the 1200m. Not going to make that mistake again, will just need some clever tactical luck early. Stablemate PEACEFUL STATE a big danger. Loved his mid-week return that only confirmed his Sandown Guineas run (at start #3) was no fluke. Beat a subsequent winner and in-form Call Me Handsome there. GRUNT is a serious talent and the value here. Gets a serious spruik from a level-headed trainer, has trialled well, been Flemington once and on debut ran great 3rd ALOISA ($26). Wary. Stablemate CAO CAO gets good run and carries the fitness edge.
SUGGESTED: Not jumping off CLIFF’S EDGE again but will be having something on GRUNT.
Race 8: 1-4-9-7
Hard to tip against REDZEL – 6 straight including a G1 Darley before break. Has trialled brilliantly (while everyone watching Winx, times measure up anywhere – just too hard to find a knock). That said REDKIRK WARRIOR is a brilliant Flemington straight fresh horse, winner Newmarket last autumn and Bobbie Lewis in the spring fresh. Have been impressed with Sydney trials of SUPER TOO – what you see is what you get – speed and the Baster book intrigues me – looks a good match. SUPIDO is a huge talent, been well handled, beaten only once Flemington (5 starts). Blinkers off and concussion plates off are positives.
SUGGESTED: REDZEL at the shorts, little saver REDKIRK WARRIOR.
Race 9: 16-9-11-1
MANOLO BLAHNIQ looked outstanding with 1st oz win when 1st try 1400m (beat GLENROWAN PRINCE which set fast pace). Going to give PURE PRIDE (2 from 21 is not normally for me) another little chance at odds, as race could open up for it late. ZEBRINZ needs similar race pattern/traffic luck but has come up well. HE’S OUR ROKKI clearly best horse, was 1st-up 4th Hartnell last campaign and then to deep end.
SUGGESTED: MANOLO BLAHNIQ has found form and the right race and distance.
QUADDIE
1-2-3-4-6-7-10
1-13-16
1-4
9-11-16
$63 for 100%