The decision on whether the gelding Onesmoothoperator contests The Bart Cummings at Flemington hinges on the amount of rainfall and the subsequent condition of the track.
Trainer Tim Fitzsimmons anticipates considerable rain at Flemington leading up to Saturday, likely rendering the course heavy.
Flemington racecourse manager Liam O’Keeffe has forecast up to 50mm of rain before Saturday, with the meeting expected to be conducted on a heavy surface.
Should this forecast materialise, Onesmoothoperator will be rerouted to either the Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) at Caulfield next Saturday or aimed directly at the Caulfield Cup (2400m) on October 17.
“The rain is going to be a big factor as he just doesn’t go a yard on it,” Fitzsimmons stated.
“I think he’d run on a Soft 5, but anything worse, we won’t be running.
“Even in his trackwork, on a heavy track, he can work alright until he comes off the bridle and then he’s not much good.”
Following his initial run for Fitzsimmons in the autumn – his first since competing for Brian Ellison in last year’s Melbourne Cup – the gelding showed promise despite finishing well back in the Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield on September 19.
“He only got beaten 4.3 lengths, off a slow speed, and once they put the rail out, it was very difficult to make up ground,” Fitzsimmons remarked.
“He was doing his best work through the line and the 2000 (metres) was a bit sharp and he needed the run as well.
“He’s come on for the run, and Mark (Zahra) jumps back on, and he’s won on him before.”
Fitzsimmons indicated that discussions with the ownership group would be necessary to map out Onesmoothoperator’s upcoming race program.
Currently ranked 28th in the Caulfield Cup order of entry, Fitzsimmons noted that competing in the Herbert Power Stakes followed by a Caulfield Cup start would not be ideal.
He also mentioned that delaying his next start for either the Geelong Cup or the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, races Onesmoothoperator has previously won, is another viable path.
“If we don’t run Saturday, he’ll have a quiet jump-out on Monday here at Bendigo,” Fitzsimmons confirmed.
“He’s number 27 in the Melbourne Cup, and he looks like he’s a good chance of getting in.
“In an ideal world, he runs Saturday, into the Caulfield Cup, if he gets in, and then onto the Melbourne Cup.”
If inclement weather prevents Onesmoothoperator from participating in Saturday’s race, Fitzsimmons advised that he would accompany Blazing Sword to the Gunbower Gold Cup (1800m) on Saturday.
With the Caulfield Cup just around the corner, checking the latest racing odds at Australian betting sites is a smart move for punters.
