FLEMINGTON
FLEMINGTON Saturday June 9
BEST BET: LYCURGUS R2 #6
BEST VALUE: MISS GUNPOWDER R7 #10
Race 1: 2-10-4-1
Always under-estimated CROSSING THE ABBEY – so go fresh here off recent good trial and good form which includes a straight 1000m win. Otherwise too many queries- PROPRELLE was heavily back on strong form race debut (ran 4th) then terrific Sale in soft win. Runs a firming favourite off that. THE AUGUST won strong form race at Donald – yes Donald – SCOTTISH ROGUE is in form stalling EXPEDIUS who looked winner, back in trip suits. Stablemate first starters GOOD ‘N’ FAST and RUBAN BLEU (trialled together and apart) each have ability, no positive market leads yet.
SUGGESTED: Not that keen, Like CROSSING THE ABBEY at the odds is good value at around $5.
Race 2: 6-2-1-3
LYCURGUS was given champion ride by champion jockey to go back to back Lakeside and down on the limit clearly appeals top pick (CHOYSA and FALAGO have finished behind him in those wins). Equally outstanding danger in SWACADELIC back from 3200m. Claim offsets weight and Friday rain helps. These two clear out from place hopes OBSERVATIONAL (backing up and fitter out to the trip first time) and HURSLEY who has been chasing well in good races. No issue at the trip and Dunn a plus.
SUGGESTED: LYCURGUS to win (out to $2.9), quinella with SWACADELIC.
Race 3: 9-4-7-2
Out to 1400m and Callow booked points me to REMEMBER THE NAME. Only 1/9 but ran well in the Manifold (G2) over 1600m here in the spring and can land good trailling spot from 2. MINTHA won like if not better than the $1.10 chance it was back to Balaklava maiden after contesting a suite of black type races with mixed results. SMOOTH LANDING is back to 1400m (poor draw though) which may suit better. LADY OF CREBILLY disappointed in Adelaide last time but that was as a $3.5 chance and seemingly out of character and ability. Gets blinkers here.
SUGGESTED: Liking the Callow factor on REMEMBER THE NAME and the $4.4.
Race 4: 1-3-5-7
Very tricky, not much would surprise here. SECOND BULLET seemingly has it stacked against him with 59.5kg with dangers away in weights but just has better form than most of these. He’s top pick but perhaps not top bet. Can’t knock the way JAMINZAH is going ran well in hot race before back to this trip and well ridden beating home BALCAZAR (who was good) and a threat here and QUICK DEFENCE who gets some weight relief. The other form race is lead by SILVERA who beat him SPANNER HEAD and CURRAGH (senior rider on a plus and edge off track ditto) at Cranbourne where winner had best run. And not ignoring MA JONES who has a Weir freshen.
SUGGESTED: JAMINZAH at $7.5 ignores recent form in tricky race, that’s value.
Race 5: 1-2-3-7
The key here is ABILITY – he has the most of it in this race and seemingly has trialled up well, goes well fresh – has won 1100m and 1200m straight races. So why is he an attractive $3.4? MALIBU STYLE is a good straight horse, won here two runs back then good again 1200m latest, back to 1000m better. LADY ESPRIT chased Malibu Style from back at that 1000m, will be competitive. LABUAN STAR is fit now for Weir and I like his 1200m back to 1000m, liked the way it attacked line Adelaide and will stalk them up the straight here. ROCKET TOMMY (straight winner) is better than last preparation. Wary. And not surprised if any market move at the $26 for HUNTING HILL. Wary.
SUGGESTED: Want more market confidence but confident ABILITY is the one to beat. Thinks $3.4 ok now.
Race 6: 14-17-5-6
Whoah! A typically tough BM78 you’d normally see at Sandown but a ridiculously tough quaddie opener here – unless you just think Weir’s MANTASTIC is the one making its Australian debut, gelded and with an encouraging recent official Cranbourne trial over 800m. I am happy to go with him – been solid around the $5 all week. After that just don’t have any conclusive evidence for firm view. I think LORD TENNYSON will run well from draw, ran into a Weir improver last time after being beaten by BARTHELONA at Sandown but was in wrong spot there. Barthelona always a threat at this level. PAINTE should possie up closer this draw but no recent wins (only 3/33). But…….
SUGGESTED: if you like something like it. Respecting MANTASTIC on debut on what I’ve seen at $5.
Race 7: 10-7-3-15
Liking the $12 (was some $16 bet) on offer about MISS GUNPOWDER who was in hot race Adelaide and pressured out at 1200m. Three runs back at 1400m got good run to win Gold Bracelet at Bendigo and well weighted here with L King claim. Obvious form dangers are with OZI CHOICE (ready for 1400m now ) and MORTON’S FORK (a good talent now gelded and fresh for this is a serious threat). KNOWABLE might be getting back towards its best form if latest run is an indication.
SUGGESTED: Think $12 is teasing MISS GUNPOWDER.
Race 8: 4-9-1-5
MAZZURO was big odds when it won the race we all though LUCKY FOR ALL would have but there is no knock on the tenacity of win (MR MONACO, GREYCLIFFE, NOTHIN’ LEICA HIGH were the next 3 home that race and merit, excuses in each effort) but like the way Mazzuro has shaped since coming from NZ, beat subsequent easy winner (who had been St leger placed) when winning its Maiden. Big tracks its key. The $8.5 is ok. After that, tough. BLACK AND TAN ran well in hot Peaceful State race Adelaide then again good from back lakeside. Gets to this trip 1st time. MASCULINO likely to roll forward as it tackles trip also for 1st time.
SUGGESTED: Believing the way MAZZURO is going.
Race 9: 9-3-1-6
Just no easy leg of the quaddie today. Just give us a 3YO 1000m straight race with a capacity field to sort out! Thanks. I am going outside draws and find I AM SOMEONE who went from well tried Maiden win to a BM70 and again with some style (beating Lady Of Crebilly – runs r3). Back up from last week when worked too hard on speed in swoopers race at 1200m. Better suited 1000m and happy to align. DUCIMUS resumed for Weir and won on Flemington 1100m straight as a 2YO. KING’S AUTHORITY has been scratched twice since sound return and another proven up straight. DESPATCH drops in grade, draws out, plenty of weight.
SUGGESTED: I AM SOMEONE the best value $13.
QUADDIE:
5-6-14-15-17
3-7-10
1-4-5-9
1-3-6-9
$120 for 50%