ROSEHILL

SATURDAY 31 MARCH

 

TRACK:    GOOD 4  (5.01)          RAIL:    +4M

 

 

 

 

BEST BETS:

 

Race 3             No.6     NIETA

Race 9             No.13   BEAU GESTE

 

 

Race 1

1 – 5 – 12 – 13

I am going to stick with SPIN who was disappointing last start albeit in tougher grade and with the step up in trip he should be able to settle pretty handy and be hard to beat. Akkadian was very good last start in the Sires Produce at Flemington when the track played against him. Aristocratic Miss comes through the same race and was very strong through the line but will need luck from a poor barrier. Nasaayim is the other through the Melbourne form race and from a nice barrier and early speed she looks to get a perfect run.

 

 

Race 2

1 – 6 – 2 – 4

I think it’s a pretty easy equation here if ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN is anywhere near his best he will blow these away. This horse has run in two L’Arc De Triomphe’s and quality group races in Europe and it’s just a matter of whether he is ready. I will be waiting and if the money comes I will be diving in but if he is very easy in the betting that may suggest he isn’t ready to fire. It’s been a long time since he has won but he looks well in here. Arbeitsam should be ready to go up to 2000m and comes here off a terrific effort in the group 2 Ajax Stakes behind Comin’ Through. Macintosh and McCreery are both capable if they put their best foot forward.

 

 

Race 3

6 – 11 – 1 – 4

Just put a line through the first up effort of NIETA when she was dragged back out of the race and actually did a good job to get beat just over the length. There looks enough speed here and with Corey Brown on board I expect she will settle a bit closer and I am confident she can run over them. New Universe has turned the corner I think now that Waller is training him as a pure sprinter and with only 53kg on his back he will be powering late. Burning Passion gets a freshen up and drops back to 1200m which are two pluses so expect him to be around the mark and Dothraki won’t be far away.

 

 

Race 4

4 – 3 – 1 – 2

PROMPT RESPONSE is flying and looks awfully hard to beat here coming off a cracking fifth in the group one Coolmore when luck eluded her behind Daysee Doom who she meets 1.5kg better here. From a good gate she should be able to either lead or sit outside Daysee Doom and be hard to get past. Daysee Doom must be considered as she is two from two this time in being a group 2 and group 1. Her stablemate Dixie Blossoms I think is the big threat to Prompt Response who won impressively first up in the group 2 Guy Walter before having little luck in the Coolmore Classic. Foxplay is the big trip around Rosehill suggesting with the drop back to her own sex she is ready to go.

 

 

Race 5

6 – 2 – 7 – 11

Found this very tricky but I’ve settled on the kiwi MONGOLIAN MARSHAL who comes across the Tasman having won his past two starts and the whispers being if he wins today he will be a better next week in the ATC Derby. He has drawn perfect and without a lot of speed on paper he should camp pretty handy. Levendi from reports has been flying since his last start second in the group 2 Alister Clark Stakes behind Cliff’s Edge. Primitivo is third up and jumps from 1400m to 2000m which is a little query but he is trained by John Thompson and he knows how to get a horse ready. He will get back but he is the one I think will be charging hard late and could easily make a late claim for the Derby.

 

 

Race 6

2 – 1 – 3 – 9

Gailo Chop continued his top shelf Melbourne form with an authoritive group 1 Ranvet Stakes 2000m victory last start a fortnight ago. He will roll forward and make his own luck and although many of us think he won’t have an issue with the 2400m it’s still a box yet to be ticked. ALMANDIN was very good first up when second in the Mornington Cup Prelude at Caulfield before a totally luckless run in the Australian Cup when he went looking for inside runs on a bias track. The barrier is his concern but if he has luck I think he’s the one the others have to beat. The former Japanese galloper Ambitious was ok in the Australian Cup and is the big improver here.

 

 

Race 7

3 – 7 – 8 – 9

Kerrin McEvoy takes the reins on the favourite UNFORGOTTEN who comes here following an outstanding win coming from last in the group 2 Phar lap Stakes. She is a quality filly who will be right in the spoils with the only concern for her is there doesn’t look as much speed on paper here compared to last start. BRING ME ROSES resumed with a cracking second in The Vanity 1400m and then backed that up with a tip top effort when third in the Australian Guineas 1600m. Last start she stepped up against the older mares and didn’t have a lot of luck in the Coolmore Classic 1500m. She now steps up in trip to 2000m and I think will take a power of beating. Aloisia must be respected for her sporing form while Danzdanzdance is the query coming over from New Zealand with big raps and a last start third behind Vin De Dance in the NZ Derby. The value runner to me looks Hiyaam who was very good when third in the Phar lap Stakes first up from a four month spell and from barrier one must be considered a player.

 

 

Race 8

10 – 4 – 2 – 8

I never thought I’d be tipping CELLARMAN as hard to beat in a Doncaster Prelude but he is flying and comes here after having little luck in a quality group 2 Ajax Stakes against some very good horses. Interlocuter has had a month’s freshen up following the Liverpool City Cup but did look good in a recent barrier trial and from a good gate he should stalk the leaders. Equador is first up and his record is pretty handy having won two and finished in the placings on five occasions in only eight attempts. He should roll forward and either lead or camp right on the hammer of Kingsguard.

 

 

Race 9

13 – 5 – 11 – 4

BEAU GESTE looks well placed here second up after a cracking first up run where I think pilot error cost him the race and with 53kg on his back from barrier one and the step up to 1400m he will be hard to hold out. The obvious danger to my eye is looks to be his stablemate Osborne Bulls who was well supported and won well first up before having no luck at all at Kembla when third in the Bert Lillye handicap. He has drawn gate two so he looks to get a nice run tucked in behind the speed.

 

 

QUADDIE:

 

1^st leg:             1, 2

2^nd leg:             1, 3, 7, 8, 9

3^rd leg:             2, 4, 10

4^th leg:             5, 13,

 

Cost $60 = 100%