MOONEE VALLEY
Friday March 23
Group 1 racing for the last night of the Moonee Valley season and a highly competitive meeting to boot
Rail true in from 4m, will race fairly in good 4 improving
BEST BET: HELLBENT R7#2
BEST VALUE: TAIMO GRACE R6#6
Race 1: 8-1-9-6
Good mix of raced and debutants who go off at 1200m so hard to be definitive. Liked the debut of ABSAROKA who was adequate Flemington 1000m when well tried to make a solid impression and di so. Think draw advantageous out to 1200m with some experience. CHESS STAR backs up and get to 1200m so a different tempo probably a plus. THRILLSTER and QUADRIGA look best of those making debut of trying to deal with their jumpouts. Not knocking OF IMPORTANCE who appreciated drop in grade to win as out top pick Ballarat. Oliver switched to Absaroka.
SUGGESTED: ABSAROKA at the $4.20 can entice me in open race.
Race 2: 8-9-6-7
DIVINE COMMAND meets ROCK AWAY on same weight terms for beating it about a length – one races forward, one races back. Go with Divine Command. ROCBOLT bolted in BM64 Cranbourne, has some hope now in this distance range. CALENDAR LAD was back in trip last time here. Though hey to win this trip, prefer it here but as a place chance.
SUGGESTED: DIVINE COMMAND has found a way to win, can do so again.
Race 3: 9-8-4-3
BOLEK can bounce forward from inside draw. Think the 1200m here better suits than the 100m when nailed Morphettville. Danger MAXIMUS is a chaser who has run favourite last 5 starts for 1 win. Interesting unbeaten from 3 PRINCETON SPIRIT now in care of part-owner after Mick Kent saddled her in 3 wins (2 synthetic) . Is a winner here 1200m and trialled well behind Missrock. HASKI ran well to just miss here last start.
SUGGESTED: Competitive but going BOLEK for racing pattern.
Race 4: 3-5-1-6
Could find a new 955m leader here. Every there ever was a horse suited to this race it is SUPER TOO coming off trying to lead Redzel in a G2 after leading the Lightning. Did win a heat here last year (1st of this series) and should make easy work of this. SUNDAY ESCAPE is quick but quick enough for it, has run 5 placings here, no wins from 7 starts around this short trip. THERMAL CURRENT has no recent wins and I’ve just about had enough but only been here 3 times for win and a 3rd.
SUGGESTED: Short but sweet – SUPER TWO.
Race 5: 3-7-2-1
Terrific race, 4 key chances. Going with PALAZZO VECCHIO (3rd in Kewney where SHOKORA ran 2nd, SEANNIE 6th). Thought with luck from inside draw gets ideal run and ready for 1600m now 3rd run in. Throwing in HARMATTAN looks a talent for Godolphin, this obviously first serious test. The other two are clear dangers and each suited to the mile, much will depend on luck in running.
SUGGESTED: Going PALLAZO VECCHIO but all 4 here in quaddie.
Race 6: 3-4-6-5
SAMOVARE ran a good 2nd to SPANISH REEF at Flemington in Matron (1600m) but has win over it here at the 1600m last September giving it 3kg. Obviously not much between them and again tactics are key and with Oliver and Zahra you have two gun hoops in form. Best value is TAIMO GRACE, a soft Wakeful winner (2000m) in 2916 and obviously on way back now as evidence by excellent chase at Flemington in leader dominated race. Can have something on her at the odds.
SUGGESTED: Going to have something $21 TIAMO GRACE but top two picks very hard to beat.
Race 7: 2-5-9-6
Well now is the time for HELLBENT – a rarity – no wins since joining Weiry (2nd this last year) but as Rod Stewart sang – tonight’s the night – and a big G1 with it. Can see it swooping around the corner with momentum and nailing this – Oakleigh Plate run excellent, BONS AWAY is another talent (at value). SHE WILL REIGN was just fair in Oakleigh Plate but liked the Valley in the Moir last spring. Can atone. SECRET AGENDA is a proven G1 horse and proven here. Has to be respected.
SUGGESTED: C’mon HELLEBNT or its all over.
Race 8: 8-9-10-2
DEPRIVE comes to Melbourne off two Sydney wins either side of a break and a recent trial. Early punters have gone with it too so positive leads. Overs is SIRIUS SUSPECT off a Mdn improved again with dominant well ridden BM64. Uses alley and is a good saver against the fave. TRUE EXCELSIOR had no luck in Kewney, better graded here where placed 4/5 at track. EASY BEAST races forward, looked sound Morphettville.
SUGGESTED: Back the fave DEPRIVE and safe at the $9 SIRIUS SUPECT.
QUADDIE
1-2-3-7
3-4-6
2-4-5-6-9
8-9-10
$90 = 50%