Sydney looks a stock standard meeting on the weekend and given the attention THE EVEREST has received I thought we would look at it – albeit early days and still a few months out from the 14th of October Race Date
For those Thrill seekers who want to bet early you can bet into the TAB market it’s at a 169% and sportsbet @ 200% (although has 5 more horses)
As a keen observer it seems THE EVEREST is still a moving and evolving beast but I can’t help but think like a lot of things in racing it still lacks clarity and direction. As an example for the world’s Richest turf sprint race you would think they would have something a bit more professional than the 1960’s cartoon graphics we saw when first announced and I’m still amazed that there is not a dedicated website to let people know about the race. Don’t get me wrong I like these different attempts to do something different but as the main promoters surely Racing NSW could have some details on their website – but unless your Sherlock Homes you can only find a couple of outdated news stories.
Surely they are missing an opportunity to be promoting the Slot Holders as well in this new concept. All we the public know is that the TAB, ATC, DAMIEN FLOWER and MR YULONG INVESTMENTS hold slots- and for some reason it seems to be a closely held secret who else are in possession of a slot. Now maybe that is to do with pay ups and payments needing to be made- but I find this angle also strange and perplexing
As punters though we are mainly concerned with picking a winner and I thought it might help some people if we focused on those horses who are genuine chances and also look at those that are pretenders and perhaps look at a few who are not in the market but perhaps should be considered if we truly intend to make this race a world class event
However the first issue is the race is going to be held at “the Swamp” as most participants are going it – Namely Randwick and it just seems to be a track that refuses to improve and is constantly wet and very much lane biased. For example, I would assume they will have the rail in the True position but if that happens is that the best scenario to showcase this world class event? As the issue with the rail in the true position –says that unless you have drawn hard the fence then your next to no hope and it has played extremely biased- but let’s say we have a 3m rail and soft conditions – well that then suggests that assuming the track is not fixed we will see them down the outside fence. Unfortunately if Australia wants recognition on the world stage then they first have to fix the track. We see world class events in France, Royal Ascot, America, Dubai and Hong Kong and not one of those areas has severe bias that we have. There is some advantages don’t get me wrong but nowhere near to the bias and extent our Australian tracks have
Assuming we get a far track though lets go through a few of the horses that are being spoken about and what their chances maybe and if they Deserve favouritism
Those in the Market:
CHAUTAUQUA – Currently $4.60
Currently is favourite with both TAB and Sportsbet. His been a freakish race horse but I reckon the price is certainly short enough. He took forever to come to hand last prep after coming back from Hong Kong (which most don’t) and all the guys who do sectional times and ratings will tell you that he was at least 4 lengths off what he used to average and despite visually looking amazing in winning the TJ SMITH- the hard facts and realities are the leaders all stopped to a walk and in fact he didn’t do anything special on the clock. Has won over $8m in earnings and has been a superstar but hard facts say he is nowhere near what he used to be and given he will be a 7 yr old giving weight away and coming from last- has got to be a massive risk. If he ran into a genuine Group 1 horse then his ratings are at least 4 to 6 lengths off what they will produce and giving he comes from the tail of the field I don’t think even Billy Vlahos would entertain backing him.
CARRAVAGGIO – Currently $6
Currently unbeaten but that’s much easier to do in Europe than Australia as the class system and race options are much more plentiful and the options to connections more generous then Australia’s outdated system. The most amazing thing about this bloke is whilst he is talented he has done very little on the clock and we know to win our biggest races you need to be able to run time. If you can’t run time equal to the older horse in Europe then you can’t come to Australia and win the biggest money sprint race- obviously still improving but there is another “6” missing from his price.
SHE WILL REIGN – Currently $8
Our Golden Slipper Winner some will say by default due to lack of quality opposition- however regardless she has the cheque and the others can suck eggs. My issue with here is in each of her efforts she has never rated like an open age horse but on her best rating she is between 3 to 5 lengths behind what will be needed to win an open age Mares Group 2- given the last 4 slipper winners who all rated much higher to SHE WILL REIGN never won another race after winning the slipper it would be a brave or perhaps ignorant man to be wanting to back her. Gary Portelli has done a huge job with her but I’d suggest if she can win another race it certainly won’t be the Everest. More amazing is Mr Yulong Investments it seems has publically committed to using her for his Slot- lucky he is a Billionaire as I can’t see him getting a return on his 2017 Everest Slot holder.
WINX- Currently $11
If not for the Cox Plate I’ve no doubt she would “brain” all of these if Waller targeted the race- sadly they want to win another Cox Plate so she won’t be here.
RUSSIAN REVOLUTION- Currently $11
He wouldn’t run 1200m in the top grade if he had a 100m head start. He is a 1000m and 1100m only horse. Has lots of speed but won’t be figuring here.
SPEITH- Currently $15
Has more wraps than presents at Christmas time but I believe is another whose best form is 1000m and 1100m- not for me.
VEGA MAGIC -Currently $15
This is the first bloke on the list that would at least deserve a spot- he has ratings to suggest he is capable of winning and given he is still lightly raced I’d suggest he could still improve.
Black Heart Bart- Currently $26
What a champion he has been but we have seen some real chinks in his form this last preparation and apart from his Futurity Run his ratings have been declining- like Chautauqua his best days are behind him and given this is 1200m that is short of his best.
BOUND FOR NOWHERE- Currently $26
He couldn’t beat CARRAVAGGIO and started 10/1- improving but surely no one is silly enough to offer him a slot.
CLEARLY INNOCENT- Currently $26
Randwick will suit this bloke. He is a question mark- Kris Lees has improved him lengths since getting him and off his last two runs he deserves a slot as his ratings are clearly improving . He is about 1.5 lengths off VEGA MAGIC but further improvement wouldn’t be out of the question.
SIGNS OF BLESSING Currently – $26
I had this horse a few years ago but he failed the vet and then won a Group 1 – the issue is 1200m in top grade is too far for him in our race shapes.
Next week will continue through the possible horses and a few that haven’t been marked that should be invited.
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Good luck and happy punting!!!