KENSINGTON TRACK
WEDNESDAY 5 SEPTEMBER
TRACK: SOFT 6 RAIL: True
BEST BET:
Race 5 No.3 ALMANZORA
NEXT BEST:
Race 6 No.10 LADY I AM
Race 1
3 – 7 – 1 – 4
Chris Waller dominates with of the fancied runners in the small field. I have gone with the debutante TOUGH LARRY who has trialled twice this time back in and looked the goods albeit it is never easy winning in town at your first start. Voila is first up for almost four months and had a nice quiet trial to have her ready and from a good gate she should stalk the leader. Altair is coming back from 1300m to 1150 and will get back but he is a handy colt so expect to see him charging hard late.
Race 2
1 – 8 – 6 – 5
Good competitive race with plenty of chances and I have settled on EXCELTIC who has class and more importantly looks to get the gun run from a perfect gate. He drops back in grade having raced in the listed Rosebud and group 3 Ming Dynasty quality at his past two so expect him to play a role. Rheingau is first up but has looked ready to go in two fitness trials while Vega One turned in a cracker first up and a repeat would have right in the mix. Brilliant Choice will roll forward and make its own luck while I reckon Matowi goes real good and although back in trip don’t leave him out of the major players.
Race 3
2 – 6 – 3 – 5
LABURNUM drops sharply back in grade after running fairly in the group 2 Silver Shadow stakes behind Fiesta. She has been up a little while now and I thought was maybe looking for a break last start but if James Cummings is happy to run her I’m happy to say sweet and put her on top. Bandol did a good job to fight and win on debut and will make her own luck on-pace while Gentle Persuasion just needs luck from her awkward draw and she will be right in the mix.
Race 4
1 – 6 – 4 – 7
CORMAC and Night Breaker ran the quinella at Warwick Farm a fortnight ago over 2200m and all things being even they look like they will run it again and probably in the same order. Cormac had loomed a few times without winning but last start he finally charged through the line and the extra 200m looks ideal. Night Breaker draws perfect and will a perfect run and maybe the 1.5kg swing will be enough.
Race 5
3 – 4 – 10 – 2
The flying 1000m and there looks good speed on paper even with the scratching of Rastafarian with Puppet Master likely to lead and then if you throw in Prince Mayted and Pendeloque it should be truly run. With the speed I think we can bet with confidence with the best bet of the day being last start winner ALMANZORA. He was very good running down Brook magic last start at Randwick and a repeat of that effort should have him getting the money. Pendeloque is four weeks between runs and from gate two looks the second pick especially if she can pinch a break of the fav on straightening.
Race 6
10 – 2 – 9 – 4
Pretty sure LADY I AM will run well here in an even race for fillies and mares off what looks a pretty good tempo. She comes here off a three week freshen up after having little luck at Canterbury on a day when the inside was dynamite. This track should give her every chance to round them up. Savvan looked to turn it up cold last start when beaten narrowly be Star If The Seas but she will relish the drop in grade and only going up 2kg as Brock Ryan takes the reins. Aeecee Tong De has had three runs back from a six month spell and coming back 200m shouldn’t bother her so if she finds the front they will struggle to get past her.
Race 7
11 – 5 – 4 – 16
Chris Waller has scratched two of the fancied runners leaving him with Bella Success as his sole representative who comes through the All Too Soon Saturday race where she was beaten five lengths. The tempo looks solid enough to allow her to tag up and hit the line. Amanito should be ready to fire following two runs back and if you can come from the back he will hitting the line hard. Deluxe Rocker steps up in trip and will give cheek from the front while Laszlo, Mo The Great and Lightning Nic are all capable with the right runs.
Race 8
11 – 3 – 15 – 6
The race has been cut up a bit with scratchings but it is still a pretty handy midweek event with a few capable of winning better races. I have ended up with GEM SONG who is two from two as a 2yo and he now resumes as a 3yo colt ready for bigger and better things. From the soft draw and a couple of good trials he will be in the mix for a long way. Impasse didn’t have much luck last start but that said he was disappointing in the run home. He is capable of bouncing back to his previous good form. If Absolute gets luck early from the gate he will give a big sight while Bull market gets the blinkers so expect a more determined effort. Tip Top resumes off a five week freshen up and a nice trial so keep safe.
Quaddie:
1st leg: 3
2nd leg: 2 – 4 – 6 – 9 – 10
3rd leg: 4 – 5 – 11 – 12 – 16
4th leg: 3 – 6 – 7 – 11 – 15
Cost $50 = 40%