ROSEHILL
ROSEHILLSATURDAY 17 MARCH
TRACK: GOOD 4 (5.05)
RAIL: TRUE
BEST BETS:
Race 2 No.2 LIBRAN
Race 5 No.2 NIETA
Race 8 No.2 TOM MELBOURNE
Race 1
8 – 5 – 9 – 4
TAMARACK deserves a Saturday win and from an ideal gate and the drop back a 100m to 1900m gives him his best chance yet. He was gallant last start when run down late and with a few leaders here he should stalk them and look the winner at some point. Zourkhan has trialled very well since his last start a month ago when third behind the dead-heaters Emperor’s Way who won last Saturday and Almost Court who won the Canberra Cup. The favourite All Too Soon is on an Oaks path and must be respected as she continues to develop and the trips get longer.
Race 2
2 – 6 – 9 – 3
LIBRAN returned with a nice effort behind the champ Winx and now steps to 2000m distance he relishes having won four times at it and second up from a break where he has been victorious three times from five attempts. From a good gate he will be back but will be coming hard at the business end. The biggest threat to Libran looks to be Stampede who should lead and now being third up he is sure to strip fitter and at the 2000m journey he will be hard to get past. Salsamor is up from Melbourne and gets the blinkers put on so a forward showing here is on the cards.
Race 3
1 – 6 – 8 – 2
SUNLIGHT is an iron-horse and looks clearly the one to beat here. She continues to front up and according to those who have seen here at the track each morning she has thrived since winning here three weeks ago. If she fails I think the winner will be Setsuna who will roll forward and be on-speed, Sweet Ava who got a mile back and no little luck last start and Into The Abyss who will be charging hard late.
Race 4
5 – 13 – 6 – 12
No doubt Written By was very good in winning the group 1 Blue Diamond and from a good gate here looks hard to beat but I’ve decided to go against that form-line especially with the colt at very short odds. Spin is yet to win but he looks a handy youngster to me and with the blinkers going on from a good gate I think he can put himself in the Golden Slipper picture with a win here. His stablemate Chabreet ran fourth on debut at a midweek meeting here but it should have been a win if he didn’t run off the track through inexperience. I like that race as a form-line and think he is capable of taking the step. Vega One is 100/1 and comes through that race so don’t be surprised if he runs a cheeky race. Zousain led last start and I think got lost so a better run here ridden a little further back is on the cards.
Race 5
2 – 12 – 9 – 5
I looked at the field and thought I’d be potting NIETA but after doing the form I think the 5yo mare looks a good thing. She has raced against the top shelf of sprinters in the country and just going off her most recent barrier trial I think she can round them up in the run home. Sprightly Lass is low flying and will give some cheek here but she is only getting a kilo off Nieta and she’s coming out of BM78 race. Gibraltar Girl was good last Saturday behind Sugar Bella and from a soft gate will get her chance to fill the placings. Hieroglyphics comes here off a three week freshen up and will be coming hard late.
Race 6
8 – 4 – 5 – 1
SHUMOOKH was a dual acceptor but chose this race instead of the group 1 Coolmore Classic and rightly so as she looks hard to beat here. She looks to have enough early speed to take control here and is sure to find this slightly easier than her last start in the group 1 Surround Stakes. Calculated is a good horse but would be better gelded I think but anyway he comes here off a nine week freshen up. Last start he charged to finish third to Pierata who has shown that form to be solid with a placing in the group on Randwick Guineas. Renewal is flying and looks ready to take the next step while there is a huge tip for the Melbourne visitor Holy Snow who turns up here with blinkers on.
Race 7
13 – 7 – 1 – 2
Egg Tart caught the eye first up when flashing late to finish fourth in the Liverpool City Cup 1300m to show she is back and firing and with the step up here and from barrier three she looms as a major player. I found it hard to split Egg Tart and RAIMENT who will jump from barrier one with only 52.5kg on her back and would only need to repeat either of her two runs this preparation to be in the major spoils. Dixie Blossoms was awesome first up when coming from the back but should be a lot closer from a good gate while the Melbourne visitor Silent Sedition will roll forward and give plenty of cheek. She was very good last start winning the group 3 Mannerism at Caulfield.
Race 8
2 – 3 – 1 – 8
I am thinking Tom Melbourne can cast aside his unwanted tag of a non-winner this preparation with a win here first up. His two trials have been spot on and with a fair tempo I am thinking he will stalk the speed and go bang. The stablemate Comin’ Through did a super job first up when coming from the back and with a soft barrier here could easily settle that bit closer. Prized Icon is fourth up so he has a fitness edge on the fancied runners while Life Less Ordinary is a quality animal and goes enormous first up.
Race 9
5 – 10 – 14 – 13
Up ‘N’ Rolling did a super job first up when condition gave out in the final 100m. That run should have him to ready fire here. I do think he is a better horse ridden off speed but without any real speed here he will have to go forward. Eagle Bay is a query runner for mine having won four of his past five starts in New Zealand. He may well need a run here first but he is a quality horse so don’t dismiss lightly. Lovani got back but found the line powerfully here two weeks ago in her first run since joining Brad Widdup so expect her to figure here. Peacock will get the chance to race on-pace here so expect a better showing while Jaminzah was ok first up without luck and is capable of filling a hole at big odds.
QUADDIE:
1st leg: 4, 5, 8
2nd leg: 1, 2, 7, 13, 14
3rd leg: 1, 2, 3, 8
4th leg: 4, 5, 10, 13, 14
Cost $75 = 25%